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2020

One Last Swing Through Robert Cahaly’s Electoral Map

Down to the wire …

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Yesterday, this news outlet recapped some of the recent swing state surveys from Robert Cahaly of the Atlanta, Georgia-based Trafalgar Group. Cahaly, of course, is the pollster who defied the experts in 2016 with his (correct) projection of U.S. president Donald Trump’s upset win over Hillary Clinton.

Cahaly is once again predicting a Trump upset … with his surveys (which are admittedly outliers) calling for a potentially decisive electoral college win for the GOP incumbent.

Do we trust Cahaly’s data? Yes …

Not just because he got it right last time, but because he has consistently gotten it right since then – particularly in our home state of South Carolina.

Two-and-a-half years ago, Cahaly nailed the outcome of the Palmetto State’s 2018 Republican gubernatorial primary … to the tenth of a percent.

Meanwhile back in February, Cahaly correctly predicted Democratic nominee Joe Biden’s landslide win in the “First in the South” presidential primary. Obviously, numerous other pollsters projected a Biden win – but it was Cahaly whose survey correctly gauged the overwhelming margin by which the former vice president captured this campaign-saving primary.

How does “the Oracle” see the 2020 election shaping up?

Let’s take one final look at his swing state surveys …

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GEORGIA – 16 Electoral Votes (TRUMP +4.3)

(Via: Getty Images)

TRUMP – 49.7
BIDEN – 45.4
JORGENSEN – 2.6
OTHER – 1.0
UNDECIDED – 1.3

RealClearPolitics Average: Trump +1.0

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NEVADA – 6 Electoral Votes (TRUMP +0.7)

(Via: Getty Images)

TRUMP – 49.1
BIDEN – 48.4
JORGENSEN – 1.2
OTHER – 0.8
UNDECIDED – 0.5

RealClearPolitics Average: Biden +2.4

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FLORIDA – 29 Electoral Votes (TRUMP +2.1)

(Via: Getty Images)

TRUMP – 49.4
BIDEN – 47.3
JORGENSEN – 1.6
OTHER – 0.7
UNDECIDED – 1.0

RealClearPolitics Average: Biden +0.9

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PENNSYLVANIA – 20 Electoral Votes (TRUMP +1.9)

(Via: Getty Images)

TRUMP – 47.8
BIDEN – 45.9
JORGENSEN – 1.4
OTHER – 1.2
UNDECIDED – 3.7

RealClearPolitics Average: Biden +1.2

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OHIO – 18 Electoral Votes (TRUMP +4.8)

(Via: Getty Images)

TRUMP – 49.2
BIDEN – 44.4
JORGENSEN – 2.1
OTHER – 1.7
UNDECIDED – 2.6

RealClearPolitics Average: Trump +1

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MICHIGAN – 16 Electoral Votes (TRUMP +2.5)

(Via: Getty Images)

TRUMP – 48.3
BIDEN – 45.8
JORGENSEN – 1.7
OTHER – 1.3
UNDECIDED – 3

RealClearPolitics Average: Biden +4.2

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NORTH CAROLINA – 15 Electoral Votes (TRUMP +2.1)

(Via: Getty Images)

TRUMP – 48.6
BIDEN – 46.5
JORGENSEN – 2.6
OTHER – 1.4
UNDECIDED – 1

RealClearPolitics Average: Trump 0.2

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ARIZONA – 11 Electoral Votes (TRUMP +2.5)

(Via: Getty Images)

TRUMP – 48.9
BIDEN – 46.4
JORGENSEN – 2.3
OTHER – 1.7
UNDECIDED – 0.7

RealClearPolitics Average: Biden 0.9

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WISCONSIN – 10 Electoral Votes (BIDEN +0.4)

(Via: Getty Images)

BIDEN – 47.5
TRUMP – 47.1
JORGENSEN – 2.3
OTHER – 1.7
UNDECIDED – 0.7

RealClearPolitics Average: Biden 6.7

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Assuming Cahaly’s numbers are accurate, Trump will comfortably win reelection – drawing at least 294 electoral votes. Assuming you trust the RealClearPolitics average, Biden will win capture White House with at least 326 electoral votes.

Obviously, it may take a while for us to figure out who won the election …

With early voting off the charts and potentially millions of mail-in ballots yet to be counted, it could be days and (brace yourselves) potentially even weeks before we know the outcome.

Especially if some of these states are as close as these surveys would indicate …

Only one thing is clear at this point from our perspective: As we move within four hours of polls closing on the east coast, the 2020 presidential race is shaping up to be a lot closer than we thought it was going to be.

-FITSNews


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