SURVEY: RACE WITHIN MARGIN OF ERROR
GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump leads Democrat Hillary Clinton by just four percentage points among likely voters in South Carolina, according to new polling data released this week by Winthrop University.
Last month, a poll commissioned by the S.C. Democratic Party (SCDP) had Trump leading Clinton by just two percentage points, while another poll released by the S.C. House “Republican” Caucus showed Trump beating Clinton by nearly sixteen percentage points.
In the Winthrop poll, Trump leads Clinton by a 42-38 percent margin, with Libertarian party nominee Gary Johnson drawing six percent and Green party nominee Jill Stein getting three percent. Seven percent of respondents were undecided.
Trump’s lead is within the poll’s margin of error.
Clinton is viewed favorably by just 39 percent of likely South Carolina voters – compared to 57 percent who view her unfavorably. Trump fares modestly better, with 40 percent of likely voters viewing him favorably compared to 52 percent who view him unfavorably.
Only 23 percent of likely voters in the Palmetto State described Clinton as “honest,” compared to 35 percent for Trump. Meanwhile 52 percent said Clinton was “capable,” compared to 48 percent who said the same of Trump.
“While Clinton is seen as the more capable candidate, she is also viewed as more dishonest,” Winthrop polling director Scott Huffmon noted. “However, both candidates are setting records for being viewed unfavorably.”
Do we buy the Winthrop results? Not really. We suspect Trump will win the Palmetto State by roughly the same margin Mitt Romney did in 2012 (or John McCain did in 2008) – although it seems clear the state is moving further to the left ideologically.
Winthrop surveyed 495 likely voters by telephone (using landlines and mobile devices) between September 18-26. The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.
SEPTEMBER 2016 WINTHROP POLL
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