SURPRISE!
By FITSNEWS || A month after one leading consumer confidence indicator took a major plunge, another is pushing eight year highs …
The Thomson-Reuters University of Michigan (Go Blue!) survey of consumers saw its December 2014 “preliminary index of consumer sentiment” soar to 93.8 – well above last month’s 88.8 reading and also well above the 89.5 percent analysts were projecting. That’s the measure’s highest reading since December 2006 – and the fifth straight monthly uptick.
Unfortunately, this unbridledly optimistic sentiment has yet to translate into expanded retail activity …
As we’ve often noted, economists watch consumer sentiment closely because it often provides a glimpse of what consumer spending might do in the future. And of course consumer spending often provides a glimpse of what employment might do in the future. Which provides a glimpse of what incomes might do in the future.
Which of course leads us back to consumer sentiment …
It’s a vicious cycle when things are going poorly … and a churning engine when things are going well.
Most analysts agree falling gas prices are what’s fueling the rise in consumer confidence, although it remains to be seen whether the money freed up at the pump will actually boost the consumer economy or get sucked up by Obamacare.
Our hope? That the private sector – despite government’s best efforts to kill it with deficit spending, loose monetary policy, market-distorting crony capitalism and excessive regulation – will soon begin a genuine rebound. Not more of the jobless “recovery” we’ve been experiencing for the last five years.
Otherwise it’s going to be a tough road ahead for a lot of people …
UPDATE: Stocks were not impressed by the reading … -315.51 (-1.79 percent) on Friday.
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71 comments
Home prices up, gas prices down, consumer confidence up. Thank you President Obama. You’re doing a great job. Keep it up. And by the way, thank you John Boehner and Mitch McConnell for helping to pass the full year funding of Obamacare to help more Americans obtain health insurance. We’re well on our way. Let the good times roll.
You forgot stock market through the ceiling, annual deficit falling and lending returning to normal.
But what about
BENGHAZI?????
No doubt that Benghazi will be a major issue in the future. Stock markets not sure. I see some sandbaggers that may determine the future.
You guys have your tongue in both cheeks, yes?
They do. Gotta make way for all those delicious facts.
Americans have traditionally been optimistic about the future and confident in their ability to succeed. Today, not so much.
Sixty-four percent of Americans still believe in the American dream, but that’s the lowest level in two decades, according to the latest New York Times poll. Even during the financial crisis of 2009, 72 percent of Americans still believed that hard work could result in financial success. More than 80 percent believed in the American dream in 2011 and 2000.
Fifty-two percent of Americans say the country’s economic system is fair and gives everyone the opportunity to succeed; 45 percent say it is unfair.
[PANEL: Americans in Sour Mood]
Nearly 60 percent say their household finances have stagnated and more than three-quarters say they are concerned about having enough money for retirement.
http://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/ken-walshs-washington/2014/12/11/poll-finds-pessimistic-america
This kind of pessimism on a personal level helps to explain why Americans’ mood is sour, according to the polls, even though there has been positive macroeconomic news recently, such as job growth nationwide and a decline in oil prices.
oops…Rocky lies again…
shut down the government for 20 years . Problem solved.
Of course we haven’t had a downturn like we experienced in 2008 to 2009 in 70 years – but hey – let’s just look back to consumer behavior for just the past 20 years, including the greatest area of prosperity led by President Clinton, one of the greatest Presidents ever.
The sound this makes is a hissing sound just before the explosion. Stay tuned.
When in good health have concern for the next ailment.
When business is good beware the next downturn.
When your mother-in-law hasn’t phoned for 48 hours avoid the doorbell.
When you have been traveling down I-26 going 90 for more than 10 minutes – slow down.
When your daughter calls and invites you to lunch bring the checkbook – the big checkbook that you keep hidden in the safe.
When gas is cheap, a homeboy as been in the White House for 8 years, the stock market is setting records and everybody and his brother are driving new cars – stockpile cash, cancel your vacations and take your profits because the opportunities are just around the corner.
Time to repeat the Republican Evolution on the Economy timeline
The economy is not getting better, Obama Sucks
The economy is getting better, but not fast enough, Obama Sucks
The economy is better, but it should be fully recovered by now, Obama Sucks
The economy has recovered, but it won’t last, Obama Sucks.
Lets just face it. Republicans suck.
The economy is not better.
“The economy is not better”
Yeah – let’s do another financial crash and have folks lose their retirements and have companies go bankrupt right and left. Let’s go back to losing 700,000 jobs per month. Golleee, I wish we could have W back!
Prescient… Be careful what you wish for.
Since 50 Million now collect food stamps and less than half the population pays income taxes … go figure …
So you don’t think the economy is artificially inflated? Russia and China are headed for economic crisis, you don’t think that’s going to send a shockwave to the US?
Some people need to get their financial information from some place other than USA Today.
Squishy, a number of credible economic studies have shown that the US economy leads the world, and that slowdowns in Europe, or for that matter wittle little Russia – don’t drive the direction of the US economy. If you’re worried about the Russian economy, which is smaller than Brazil, you’re worried about the wrong economy.
What about China? There are also recent credible studies stating that the US economic indicators will likely soon be taken over by China economic indicators. The US is a consumer based economy.
“Some people need to get their financial information from some place other than USA Today.”
Some folks need to stop pulling shit out of their gaping asshole.
Bill proven correct.
Not really. Just because we are better off than other countries and that we have a giant economy, doesn’t mean our economy is better, or that the giant isn’t deeply sleeping.
“Not really.”
LOL Gas prices aren’t really down – that doesn’t make things better – just because our gas prices are lower than other countries doesn’t really mean anything and doesn’t mean that our gas prices are really lower than the gas prices in other countries. If our gas prices were low, then they would really be low – and they would be lower than the gas prices in every other country – even the gas prices in the countries where they have low gas prices. So no, our gas prices are not low. Not really.
Are you just a fucking idiot or what? LOL
Excellent! Sage advise. Btw: the stock markets just took a huge hit … I sold out this AM. We are putting our house up this month.
(Taxifornia property taxes are up and more to come next year. My biz is down 15% over just last year, directly because of the BummerCare tax on medical equipment, my med-machine customers are moving off shore.)
“My biz is down 15% over just last year, directly because of the BummerCare tax on medical equipment, my med-machine customers are moving off shore.)”
LOL Your customers are probably so tired of your fucking BS that they run away in droves.
And I hate to inform you but that old rusty, push lawnmower that you use to cut grass and that is the heart of your biz won’t be classified as “medical equipment” so relax and keep on mowing.
LOL …
The democrat leaning kid in my biz run the order desk, so I doubt my “classic liberal” rants ever interfere with the action.
How did you know about the push mower?
“How did you know about the push mower?”
Grass stains on your Converse sneakers were the giveaway.
How many times we gotta tell youse.. come ovah here.
If by that you mean join the underground economy, I have given it consideration. I still have enough faith in the rule of law the hesitate. …
Love the comment. No, I meant come to Greenville, where the money is.
I was hoping to find something closer to Charleston. I’m planning on using my sailboat and doing some salty fishing.
May I suggest McClellanville? Smaller, but plenty of water. If you have a few bucks, try Harbor Island.
Harbor Is. looks like one of those Atlantic coastal islands where one could insure to the maximum, then wait for the next hurricane, rebuild, repeat … Like they do on the New Jersey and Long Island NY shore. … a real money maker for everyone except the taxpayers.
True, except for the Taxpayer part. To build, you have to show proof of PRIVATE hurricane insurance. I know ’cause I got two brothers-in-law who have houses there, and the insurance cost is a bitch – close to $2K/mo. – even though the island is set back and Hunting Island and Edisto beaches (on either side) absorb the direct hits, which have been many, over the years.
Gas prices–you can pretty much “blame” it on that alone.
Has anything else really changed since last month?
People who drive to work–most of those who work–are more affected by that than pretty much everything else. Even if you don’t drive that far, you see gas prices everywhere, whether you want to or not.
Combine that with the holidays, and the first thought is “I’ll have more money to spend than normal because gas prices are down”, even if in reality, it might not make that much difference at all.
Its nice to actually see some good news for a change..and not the 7-8 year long “waiting on the other shoe to drop”…but I see (in other comments) some still have to hold on to even that.
Nice catch. I’ll just add that with oil closer to its actual price, without the Fed slippin’ bucks to Chi-town big banks to pump price increases, metals are simmering.
Commodities are about ready for an up turn, even oil. But a thousand dollars in pure Silver is almost too heavy to lug to the grocery store :-]
Oil prices won’t budge (up) as long as OPEC is flooding the market with it in order to break the back of shale oil producers.
But the their infrastructure is already paid for; its not a 1 month, or even 1 year project. The shale oil and fracking projects are on a 5-10 year cycles. Short term drops in prices won’t affect the learger producers.
So at the least, we see the OPEC oil producers stop their self inflicted hemorrhaging in 6 months because they can’t take the losses, and shale oil production continues (unlikely).
Or we see long term (5-10 years) of flooded oil markets..which will help the economy in a million other ways (but hurting shale oil producers).
Either way, the general public wins from lowered energy prices.
Prescient …
“Gas prices–you can pretty much “blame” it on that alone.”
Was there supposed to be some point to what you just posted or were you just babbling for the sake of babbling? And just for the record he shoe dropped – and I mean really dropped – before President Obama took office – remember?
Think about it, barrel prices drop to below production cost, wells get shut down, wells get shut down there’s no need to keep high price oil workers on payroll, employees go on unemployment, production drops and barrel prices go up. The theory is all in Chapter 1 of your Economics 101 book.
And likely to play out nicely in North Dakota – after Sean Hannity told all his unemployed white under-educated listeners to head out there for jobs.
North Dakota will be fine after the next bust. They learned from their mistakes in the 1980’s that you don’t spend the money as fast as it comes in. In fact, North Dakota will be fine for decades because they’re investing and banking 90+% of the oil revenue it’s receiving.
So if you can’t get a job because of the oil bust, and live in North Dakota, the state will take care of you? For decades? Sort of a super-sized Obamanation plan all in North Dakota? Will they provide free healtcare and phones too?
There have been at least two big oil busts in North Dakota over the past 100 years and North Dakota has survived both except for those who were hoping to make a quick buck. Those expecting the state to take care of them left the state. A great majority of the people working in the oil fields aren’t from
North Dakota, they follow the work around the country like carnies… which is why there was a need to create “man camps”. The
locals in western North Dakota would likely prefer that most workers
weren’t there, crime has gone way up, traffic and road conditions are horrible, retail prices have gone up do to the need to pay typical minimum wage jobs $15-$17/hr., a trip to Walmart or grocery store will take you an hour to check out, etc… The citizens of North Dakota aren’t like the citizens of South Carolina. They tend to view welfare and handouts as a bad thing and an embarrassment to the family name.
It would be culture shock for many South Carolinians to visit North Dakota. Do you know their legislature only meets every other year vs. 9 months a year, every year here in SC? The North Dakota budget has had a billion dollar surplus for the past three years and they’re doing the wise thing and banking it and spending it on infrastructure not handing it out to social programs or creating new welfare programs.
“Was there supposed to be some point to what you just posted or were you just babbling for the sake of babbling? ”
I see you read my response, but I’m not actually sure you comprehended it.
The title of the article, in case you somehow missed it, was “US Consumer Confidence Hits Highest Level Since 2006”
What was your question again?
“I see you read my response, but I’m not actually sure you comprehended it.”
All you did was jack off – nothing to comprehend.
It’s official…you’re an idiot.
“It’s official…you’re an idiot.”
According to whom? E. Norma Sasshole?
Just a guess – but maybe Obamacare isn’t sucking all the money out of the economy as some posts have suggested.
BummerCare fines and taxes begin next year … Be careful what you wish for.
I got plenty of meth orders. I’m thinking I’m fine for fines. How about you Eddy?
In all honesty, at some point, do you think you just have to quit. I mean, non-insured rates are way down, the deficit continues to fall, people are insured, getting better preventative medicine. Really, at some point you just have to admit – it was worth it. Period. Let’s move on. The guy was elected on it, he did it, it’s over.
BTW – I can assure Johnny B and Mitch – they’re moving’ on.
Be carful what you wish for …
I don’t see that any of your statements about the state of the nation’s economy are close to accurate. And the death rate is up or does that not count?
Eddy – had to put my father through Hospice a few years back. They did the same thing – doped him to sleep until he died. Here’s a key, when your source for news starts with DRUDGE – you pretty much might want to reconsider it.
“ It must be admitted that many people were conscious and willing dupes. But many more were unconscious and were sincere in their patriotic zeal. Finding now that elaborately and carefully staged deceptions were practised on them, they feel a resentment which has not only served to open their eyes but may induce them to make their children keep their eyes open when next the bugle sounds. “ – Lord Arthur Augustus William Harry Ponsonby in Wikiquotes.
Beware of Gruberizing left leaning Acadamedians pumping poli-wog pontifications …
The poor and middle classes have yet to get any tax breaks so they have money to spend. … That Happy Meal has risen to over $10 bucks in the big cities, too much of it is taxes.
Remember, all inflation is caused by government, government prints the money and government can too easily print too much.
A bailout of the poorer classes is now required … Rocky.
“Beware of Gruberizing left leaning Acadamedians pumping poli-wog pontifications ”
Beware of fucking idiots on blogs that are full of shit.
“Beware of fucking idiots on blogs that are full of shit.”
Admitting that you have a problem is the first step.
‘Can you really measure confidence? I prefer something more tangible;you can just ‘eyeball’ it,and guesstimate the level.’ Albert Camus
Precision Eyeballing, wishful thinking and a big dose of half truth = a g’ments’ Gruberized pontifications. Watch for a correction to this “confidence” gaming.
The TRUM Hasn’t been accurate since 1993.
Ya know, you can’t start a position saying every measurement is wrong, or sucks. How else do you know if things are changing?
Sure you can. Here is how it works. I know what the state of the economy is, ergo any measurement that does not agree with my assessment is wrong. Its just like global warming. I know global warming is not happening, so any scientist that says otherwise is either wrong or lying. See, its a simple system.
Facts, Scientists, Economists, etc. just slow up the system.
The increase in the size of the hole in your pocket.
Funny that this was written in the same week that the DOW tanked at a rate not seen since the week of the 9/11 attack.
All due to oil prices. As cheaper energy starts to propel the economy, stocks will rise even higher.
It’s a good week or two to buy, if you’re into that sort of gambling.
Even as some of the major international economies are on the verge of collapse? Why do you think Putin is stirring up shit, China is on the edge and will probably start calling up their loans to this country? The DOW is no longer a basis of economic condition, it’s now purely speculation which is why we see wild swings.
And black helicopters fill the sky over Columbia, and the special forces are coming into Hilton Head, and the United Nations world government is getting ready to seize control. Obama’s going to order martial law, and has purchased all the ammunition manufactured since last October. And Putin is going to take over Western Europe with his large super-huge economy (which is smaller than California). And China is going to call all it’s loans, because default on the loans they hold would be soooo helpful to them.
Keep listening to Hillary and Pelosi and you’ll be fine.
Keep listening to Rush and Beck and you will be fine. By the way did you get your Glenn Beck survival seed package, or buy an annuity from one of Hannity’s advertisers.
I forgot. ” It’s a great day in South Carolina’ !