Exclusive: Alan Wilson Enjoys Double-Digit Lead in S.C. Governor’s Race

by WILL FOLKS

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During this year’s contentious, hotly contested Republican primary elections in South Carolina, a new ‘oracle’ has emerged in the Palmetto State.

Rick Quinn – son of the late, legendary strategist Richard Quinn – has been cranking out incredibly accurate surveys across multiple races, documenting with remarkable precision the rising and falling fortunes of candidates for governor, U.S. Senate and other statewide offices.

In addition to his spot-on polling data, Quinn has also been following the money in this year’s election cycle – publishing insightful, detailed reports on where campaigns and political action committees are investing their resources.

Along with Robert Cahaly of the Atlanta-based Trafalgar Group, Quinn has emerged – like his late father – as one of the most revered political analysts in the southeast, someone whose data (and accompanying strategic analysis) will be increasingly sought-after as we approach a pivotal ‘First in the South’ presidential campaign in 2028.

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In the meantime, Quinn is taking inventory of the South Carolina’s governor’s race – a contest which has flown decidedly under the radar given the unexpectedly close, unprecedentedly chaotic U.S. Senate battle unfolding between “Republican” Darline Graham Nordone, Democrat Annie Andrews, Libertarian Kasie Whitener and staunch supporters of a write-in movement for conservative congressman Ralph Norman.

In the U.S. Senate race, the GOP nominee is an entitled, inexperienced, special interest tool – a proxy for the military-industrial complex whose D.C.-directed campaign has been truculently dismissive of the conservative voters it needs to win in November. Nordone has also been completely outflanked by her Democrat opponent on the affordability front – surrendering significant populist ground. Not surprisingly, she finds herself in real danger of losing her election.

Attorney general and GOP gubernatorial nominee Alan Wilson, on the other hand, has been barnstorming the state with affordability at the forefront of his platform – and was busy uniting the GOP even before he won the nomination back in June. Wilson also didn’t need U.S. president Donald Trump to drag him across the finish line in his Republican primary election (like Nordone did).

In fact, it was the president who had to adjust his politics to account for Wilson’s meteoric rise.

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Not the outcome we hoped for, but there’s nothing like a fall Saturday in South Carolina. Great to spend some time tailgating with so many good folks in Columbia before the Gamecocks kicked off. Win or lose, there’s no place I’d rather be. https://t.co/6JAmkMuYnJ

— Alan Wilson (@AGAlanWilson) October 5, 2026

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Simply put, conservative Republicans trust the veteran prosecutor… they do not trust Nordone.

Wilson’s positioning vis-à-vis Nordone was made abundantly clear by Quinn’s new numbers (.pdf), which showed him with a 10.14% lead over Democrat Jermaine Johnson. For those of you keeping score at home, Wilson’s lead is ten times Nordone’s narrow advantage over Andrews.

Wilson was backed by 45.17% of registered voters, compared to 35.03% for Johnson, according to Quinn’s data. Meanwhile, 2.85% of these voters said they supported United Citizens candidate Michael Addison – and 1.11% said they backed Green party nominee Walid Hakim.

The rest of the electorate – 15.84% – was undecided.

Per Quinn’s poll, Johnson would need to capture a whopping 81.99% of the undecided vote – more than four out of every five undecided voters – just to pull even with his GOP rival. Conversely, Wilson, would need to secure just 30.99% of undecided voters – less than a third – to put him over 50% on election day.

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While undecideds are expected to break more heavily toward Democrats this year given prevailing national headwinds, Quinn’s survey pointed to some potential challenges for Johnson on that front.

“More core Democratic constituencies and regions have already made up their minds,” Quinn noted. “For example, only 10.23% of African American voters are undecided, compared to 17.41% of all other voters. The undecideds are mostly voters who favor Wilson, giving him a solid advantage down the stretch.”

Quinn surveyed 638 South Carolina registered voters between September 29 – October 3, 2026. All interviews were conducted by live callers, with each voter asked for by name, according to a memo accompanying the results. The survey’s margin of error is plus or minus 3.7%.

To view the results for yourself, click on the document below…

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THE SURVEY…

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR…

Will Folks is the founding editor of the news outlet you are currently reading. Prior to founding FITSNews, he served as press secretary to the governor of South Carolina. He lives in the Midlands region of the state with his wife and eight children.

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