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by WILL FOLKS
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Conservative Republicans in South Carolina made it abundantly clear during the 2026 primary election cycle that they didn’t want the sister of fiscally liberal warmonger Lindsey Graham serving as the GOP nominee for U.S. Senate this fall.
Unfortunately, the Palmetto State’s Republican establishment – egged on by U.S. president Donald Trump – refused to listen, and proceeded to launch a multi-million dollar campaign in support of left-of-center “Republican” Darline Graham Nordone.
At the same time, Trump and his SCGOP allies spent millions attacking Nordone’s Freedom Caucus rival, U.S. congressman Ralph Norman – a move that further alienated the state’s growing conservative base.
Now, the consequences of this ongoing alienation are becoming painfully clear for the Palmetto State’s GOP ruling class… and for Trump.
Days after national analysts noted the increasing competitiveness of Nordone’s general election against Democrat Annie Andrews, a new survey from one of the nation’s most accurate Republican pollsters has revealed the race to be a dead heat.
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According to poll results released on Saturday (September 26, 2026) from the Trafalgar Group, Nordone is clinging to an incredibly narrow advantage over her Democrat rival. Asked to say who they would support if the election were held tomorrow, 43.4% said Nordone compared to 42.3% who answered Andrews – a spread of just +1.1%.
Another 5.9% of respondents said they were supporting another candidate, while 8.5% indicated they were undecided.
What makes these numbers even more troubling for Nordone? According to the Trafalgar survey, nearly six-out-of-ten respondents (59.1%) identified as Republicans, compared to just 29.3% who professed being Democrats. The remainder of the sample – 11.6% – did not identify with either of the two major parties.
“This is very, very bad if these numbers are believed,” a top Republican strategist unaffiliated with any of the Senate campaigns told us.
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RELATED | SHIFTING SANDS IN U.S. SENATE RACE
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Run by veteran national GOP strategist Robert Cahaly, Trafalgar has been consistently on the money in its South Carolina assessments. Cahaly surveyed 1,087 respondents between September 23-25, 2026. His poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9%.
As we noted earlier this week, many Norman supporters plan to write the congressman’s name on their 2026 ballots – a movement that is likely taking at least 1-2% out of the Republican’s right flank. Meanwhile, Nordone has been completely outflanked by Andrews the affordability front.
“This is a perfect storm,” another Republican operative unaffiliated with any of the campaigns told us. “A terrible GOP candidate, a divided Republican party, an unpopular president and economic headwinds that an otherwise unelectable Democrat candidate is deftly capitalizing on.”
No Democrat has won a statewide election in South Carolina since 2006. No Democrat has won a top-of-the-ticket race in South Carolina since 1998.
Could Andrews break that streak in November? If these numbers hold up, she’s got an even money shot…
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR…
Will Folks is the founding editor of the news outlet you are currently reading. Prior to founding FITSNews, he served as press secretary to the governor of South Carolina. He lives in the Midlands region of the state with his wife and eight children.
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