Hurricane Francine Gains Strength, Eyes Louisiana Landfall

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Hurricane Francine roared to life in the Gulf of Mexico this week, eyeing a landfall along the Louisiana coast sometime in the afternoon or evening on Wednesday (September 11, 2024) with triple-digit winds, pounding rains and a storm surge that could reach ten feet in some areas.

As of 7:00 a.m. CDT, the sixth named storm of the 2024 season was located at latitude 27.5° N, longitude 93.3° W, approximately 195 miles southwest of Morgan City, Louisiana headed northeast at twelve miles per hour. The storm was packing maximum sustained winds of 90 miles per hour as it drew a bead on the Bayou.

Hurricane-force winds extended outward from the center of Francine for more than 40 miles, while tropical storm-force winds extend outward for up to 115 miles.

“Some additional strengthening is possible this morning,” forecasters with the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami, Florida noted. “Francine is expected to weaken quickly after it moves inland.”

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On the forecast track, Francine “is anticipated to make landfall in Louisiana within the warning area this afternoon or evening,” and then “move northward across Mississippi on Thursday and Thursday night.”

The “warning area,” according to the latest advisory, encompasses “the Louisiana coast from (the) Vermilion/Cameron line eastward to Grand Isle,” a roughly 160-mile stretch of coastline running from the center of the state to just south of New Orleans.

The warning area is just to the west of Buras, Louisiana, which is where Hurricane Katrina – the costliest and deadliest storm of the 21st century – made landfall on August 29, 2005.

Louisiana governor Jeff Landry has already asked the federal government to provide assistance – which he said will be “pivotal to save lives and property as Hurricane Francine approaches Louisiana.”

“After declaring a state of emergency, we have now determined that this storm is of such severity that an effective response is beyond the capabilities of the state and local governments,” Landry wrote on X. “This federal assistance is needed to save lives and property, and I look forward to president Biden quickly approving this request.”

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Getting stronger. Current Hurricane Hunters marking 972mb. Follow them and Francine in real-time at: https://t.co/CBvsOEfMap pic.twitter.com/qmeL9pNMwT

— Mike's Weather Page (@tropicalupdate) September 11, 2024

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The big question? What the timing and precise location of Francine’s arrival will mean for those nervously watching tidal charts in the Gulf. Assuming the storm comes ashore at high tide, things could get dicey.

“The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves,” NHS forecasters warned. “Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.”

Forecasters also addressed the extent to which the surge-related flooding was expected to impact the “hurricane risk reduction” system – an massive, interconnected flood mitigation network erected over the past decade-and-a-half at a cost of $20 billion by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE).

This system of “barriers, sector gates, flood walls, floodgates and levees” was constructed between 2006 and 2018 – in the aftermath of Katrina – with the goal of providing a “veritable ‘wall’ around East Jefferson, Orleans and St. Bernard Parishes.”

“Storm surge is not expected to pose a threat to the risk reduction system levees,” NHC forecasters noted. “However, there may be some overtopping of local levees.”

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While Francine’s progress dominated discussion on weather boards, it’s worth noting there is another system getting organized in the mid-Atlantic.

According to NHS, this system is a “trough of low pressure” which is “producing a large but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms from near the Cabo Verde Islands extending southwestward for several hundred miles.”

“Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression will likely form during the latter part of this week while the system moves west-northwestward at ten to fifteen miles per hour,” forecasters noted.

Chances of formation over the next week currently stand at 80 percent.

Francine’s emergence comes on the heels of a period of record inactivity in the tropics, which has made a mockery of preseason forecasts calling for a huge uptick in the number of storms.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR …

Will Folks is the owner and founding editor of FITSNews. Prior to founding his own news outlet, he served as press secretary to the governor of South Carolina, bass guitarist in an alternative rock band and bouncer at a Columbia, S.C. dive bar. He lives in the Midlands region of the state with his wife and eight children.

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