FITSNews Political Stock Index – 7/16/2024

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“Fortunes can turn on a dime in politics,” we noted in last week’s edition of this index. That truth was capably reinforced in the most profound way possible by last Saturday’s events in Butler, Pennsylvania.

A dime’s width one way or the other and our nation could have looked dramatically different this week. Instead of riding high into his party’s nominating convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, former president Donald Trump could have been riding into New York City in the back of a hearse.

Following last month’s tectonic presidential debate, the constantly shifting political sands have swirled into a downright Dust Devil – upending the landscape in ways no crystal ball could have ever foreseen. Already in uncharted waters, Saturday’s attempt on Trump’s life pushed us even further into the unknown.

As we navigate this new reality … whose political stock is rising? Falling? Flat?

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Over the past year, our founding editor Will Folks and columnist Mark Powell have been monitoring political developments in South Carolina and beyond via our FITSNews Political Stock Index.  As previously noted, each installment assesses of how our subjects fared over the previous week. Positive reports don’t reflect endorsements, and negative ones aren’t (necessarily) indicative of vendettas.

We just call ‘em like we see ‘em.

To view the most recent index, click here. And to get your historical fix, click here.

Got a hot “stock tip” for our consideration? Email Will (here) and/ or Mark (here). Just make sure to include “Palmetto Political Stock Index” in the subject line.

Where should you invest your political capital this week? To the index!

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DONALD TRUMP

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STOCK: RISING

“Trump needs to buy a lottery ticket. Right now!” That tongue-in-cheek observation sums up the spectacular roll the former president is on these days. Trump entered the month riding high in the polls following rival Joe Biden‘s age-induced implosion in their debate late last month in Atlanta. Next, in a highly non-Trump move, he had the good sense to keep quiet while Democratic infighting kept the spotlight on Biden’s cognitive decline. Add to that the fact campaign donations were pouring in like Niagara Falls in flood stage.

On Saturday afternoon, though, Trump stepped onto a stage in western Pennsylvania … and into American history. Had he not turned his head just a quarter of an inch at precisely the right moment, a sniper’s bullet would have likely found its mark – and Americans would have been watching a state funeral instead of the Republican National Convention on television this week.

After surviving the assassination attempt, Trump received stellar legal news on Monday when Federal Judge Aileen M. Cannon not only dismissed a case involving his alleged mishandling of classified documents – but also ruled special prosecutor Jack Smith‘s appointment was unlawful. 

Then, at 3:21 p.m. that same afternoon, he was officially nominated as the Republican presidential candidate for the third consecutive time. (Nobody in either party has pulled that off since Franklin Roosevelt’s four-time run nearly a century ago).

For Trump World these days, it’s a classic case of “Laissez le bon temps rouler!”

Better grab that ticket right now, Mr. Trump. Tuesday night’s Mega Millions jackpot is $223 million and counting …

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JOE BIDEN

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STOCK: HOLDING

Legendary Democratic strategist Robert Strauss told former president Jimmy Carter during the depths of his unsuccessful 1980 reelection campaign, “the trouble is, you used up all your damn luck getting here.”

It’s starting to feel that way once more at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.

Biden hasn’t been able to catch a break all summer. It was smooth sailing through the primary season when he easily won the delegates necessary to secure renomination (thanks in no small part to a calendar that had been stacked in his favor). All the while his White House staff, abetted by their willing accomplices in the MSM, did a passable job of covering up his obvious cognitive decline.

Then came those excruciating ninety minutes in Atlanta – which changed everything. America could no longer deny the obvious: The emperor had no clothes. A wide swath of his fellow Democrats turned on Biden, desperately begging for someone, anyone, to replace him as their nominee.

Plus, despite Biden repeatedly saying economists predict things are getting better (echoing Herbert Hoover’s hallow claim that “prosperity is just around the corner”), try telling that to working-class Americans when they pay for their groceries each week or fill up the gas tank. It doesn’t take a degree from the Harvard Business School to know things cost more now than they did in 2021—a lot more.

Still, Biden bought himself a bit of breathing room with his rare Oval Office address Sunday night. After expressing obligatory gratitude about Trump’s escape from a would-be assassin’s bullet, he decried violence in politics. He dragged in the January 6, 2021 rioting at the U.S. Capitol and the attack on Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi‘s husband – although he strangely omitting the near-fatal shooting of Republican congressman Steve Scalise by a Bernie Sanders‘ backer.

Biden pleaded for Americans to dial down the political rhetoric, a curious request from a president who recently tweeted that Trump was “a genuine threat to our nation.”

Even worse, Biden told donors on July 8, “it’s time to put Trump in the bullseye.”  

Biden is getting praise for his tone following the assassination attempt on Trump. But sincerity is subject to proof. Well-intentioned expressions must be matched by good deeds. The tenor of his nomination acceptance speech next month — assuming his party allows him to deliver it — will show whether “Dial It Down Joe” is real or a momentary, opportunistic flash in the pan.

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J.D. VANCE

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STOCK: RISING

It’s been nearly four decades since a running mate was sprung on the American public during convention week the way J.D. Vance was – which served to highlight just how unknown a commodity the new GOP No. 2 truly is.

Obviously, news junkies and politicos are well acquainted with him, but polls show the vast majority of the country has never heard of of the first-term U.S. senator from Ohio. Compare that two Kamala Harris, who’d been California’s attorney general for six years, U.S. senator for four more, plus a presidential candidate at the time she was picked. Then there’s Mike Pence, who’d been Indiana’s governor and a congressman for a combined 16 years; and Joe Biden, who has seemingly been hanging around Washington since the founding of the Republic.

Vance has a window of opportunity to introduce himself to the American public between now and the start of the Democratic National Convention in August. If Democrats continue fighting among themselves about Biden’s future atop their party’s ticket, Vance can essentially fly below the national radar and present the image he wants to show his countrymen (especially those in swing Rust Belt states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and his native Ohio, where his appeal may be strongest). If he shores up undecideds and blue collar workers in those states he could potentially prove a valuable asset to Trump’s reelection effort.

But it’s a high-risk proposition. Remember how instantaneously former vice president Dan Quayle was branded a bumbling, dimwitted rich frat boy who didn’t have the sense to figure out how to turn a doorknob? That persona still haunts Quayle to this day.

But to borrow from Lloyd Bentsen famous debate quip, Vance – the Yale-educated lawyer – “is no Dan Quayle.” He knows how to milk his up-from-my-poor-Appalachian-roots schtick for all it’s worth, yet he also knows not to carry it too far. And he’s getting positive initial reviews from the GOP base despite his start in politics as a card-carrying #NeverTrumper.

It’s up to Vance to prove to the country that he’s up to the job Trump is asking him to perform. But the fact he’s been given such an opportunity in the first place means his stock is rising.

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NIKKI HALEY

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STOCK: HOLDING

Never one to let the limelight pass her by, former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley managed to land a speaking slot at the GOP convention this week after all. The invitation – personally extended by Trump – comes several weeks after the defeated GOP presidential candidate offered a tepid “endorsement” of the man who obliterated her in her home state and across the country en route to capturing the nomination.

Haley, 52, will have her hands full when she takes the stage on Tuesday night.

Aside from battling boo birds, Trump’s former United Nations’ ambassador must pay homage to a guy she really doesn’t like all that much. She must also be careful not to praise him too effusively, as her #NeverTrump base would never forgive her for going overboard.

Haley has been uncharacteristically silent since dropping out of the presidential race last spring … and it certainly doesn’t seem as though she’s been missed.

Will her big moment in Milwaukee mark a return to relevance? Or will it be another reminder of her diminished standing in the party she purported to lead?

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NANCY MACE

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STOCK: RISING

Fellow Palmetto State politico Nancy Mace gets her moment of convention glory on Wednesday night. The single mom-turned-congresswoman will try to win over “suburban college-educated women” – that coveted will-o’-the-whisp demographic group that so often eludes the GOP due to its stance on social issues.

It’s a remarkable turn of events for Mace, given her well-known on-again, off-again friendship with Trump.

The two seem to have buried the hatchet last year, clearing the way for Trump’s endorsement of Mace’s reelection bid this spring. That, in turn, enabled Mace to plunge a hatchet into Catherine Templeton and beat back the GOP establishment’s bid to unseat her.

Say what you will about Mace, but she’s won multiple tough races to get – and keep – her seat in congress. Expect to see that toughness on display in Milwaukee this week …

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TIM SCOTT

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STOCK: HOLDING

The 2024 presidential race didn’t turn out the way South Carolina’s junior senator had hoped. Nor for that matter did the 2024 veepstakes. Just a few days ago, Trump was saying nice things about Tim Scott, calling him “fierce and great” in an interview. Still, serious political observers knew all along Scott was never a serious contender for the second slot on the GOP ticket.

Well-liked and respected, Scott just isn’t a political A-lister. But just because he isn’t Trump’s vice presidential nominee, it doesn’t mean he’s down and out. Trump genuinely likes Scott – and there’s a realistic chance he could be offered a high-profile cabinet position in the increasingly likely event Trump win this fall. 

Even amid the glow of the Republican love fest in Milwaukee, old in-state rivalries rear up from time to time. Shortly after Trump’s selection of Vance as the running mate was announced, Nikki Haley’s son Nalin tweeted, “BREAKING: Tim Scott calls off wedding.”

When Scott folded his presidential campaign last spring, he endorsed Trump over his fellow South Carolinian. You may have forgotten about that … but Nikki Haley’s family obviously hasn’t.

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U. S. SECRET SERVICE

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STOCK: FALLING

There’s simply no sugarcoating it: The Secret Service failed last Saturday. Period. For the first time in 43 years, its agents couldn’t stop a would-be assassin from wounding their protectee. Only a sudden urge to turn toward a large screen image to his right spared Donald Trump his life – not the men and women whose job it is to keep him alive.

True, it is a massive undertaking with countless variables that change from one venue to the next – often with little warning. True, they had a remarkably successful run for nearly a half-century. But there are certain jobs in life where absolute perfection is demanded. You don’t want to rely on an air traffic controller with a 90 percent success rate to guide the jet you’re sitting in toward a safe landing, do you?

So it goes in this case.

There will be multiple inquiries — emergency House hearings, an official investigation, and plenty of journalists looking into it as well — but the plain truth is undeniable.

The Secret Service left Butler, Pennsylvania with a black eye … and that was before one of its female agents became a national laughingstock by failing to correctly holster her sidearm.

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POLITICAL MEMES

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STOCK: RISING

Those funny little images are all the rage these days. Americans love sharing them with their friends acquaintances. (Any friend of this index’s co-author Mark Powell knows it’s a rare day when he doesn’t text at least a dozen of them).

Why are they so popular? For starters, they fill the void created by the demise of newspaper cartoons. For over a hundred years, Americans could always count on a chuckle every morning from either the funny pages or the opinion section’s editorial cartoons. With so many papers disappearing, memes are filling the void as a daily source of smiles.

Political meme makers have had a field day with recent events. Donald Trump, in particular, is a favorite subject for them. While some folks find them offensive, to many others they’re hilarious.

Take a look at these examples, and remember they’re shared in a spirit of goodwill. For as humorist Will Rogers told us, “If there’s no malice in your heart, there can be none in your jokes.”

Enjoy …

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