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Another GOP congressional battle was decided … the South Carolina Freedom Caucus racked up two more victories at the S.C. State House … and for the first time ever, a member of the über-leftist “Squad” went down in flames.
How does all of the above impact where you should invest your political capital moving forward? You’ve come to the right place to find out …
Over the past year, our founding editor Will Folks and political columnist Mark Powell have been monitoring developments on multiple fronts via our Palmetto Political Stock Index. As we always point out, each installment is merely an assessment of how our subjects are presently faring. Positive reports don’t reflect endorsements, and negative ones aren’t (necessarily) indicative of vendettas. We just call ‘em like we see ‘em.
To view the most recent index, click here. And to get your historical fix, click here. Got a hot “stock tip” for our consideration? Email Will (here) and/ or Mark (here). Just make sure to include “Palmetto Political Stock Index” in the subject line.
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This week’s edition is devoted to the partisan runoff elections … which took place this week in the aftermath of the partisan primary races held earlier this month.
In the Palmetto State, if no candidate receives a majority of votes on the primary ballot the top two finishers advance to a head-to-head runoff election two weeks later. Runoffs are unique to partisan primaries, by the way. There is no runoff requirement in the general election in November.
Who emerged from the runoffs with momentum? And who didn’t?
To the index …
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SHERI BIGGS
STOCK: RISING
It was heated, unpleasant … and very close. But when all was said and done, nurse Sheri Biggs emerged from Tuesday’s runoff race as the Republican nominee for South Carolina’s ruby red third congressional district. Given the staunch conservative lean of this GOP enclave, that basically means she is the congresswoman-elect.
Biggs narrowly defeated evangelical pastor Mark Burns by fewer than 1,100 votes out of more than 55,000 cast in this race for a seat that came open due to incumbent Jeff Duncan‘s extracurricular issues.
Driving the discussion in this race? Donald Trump’s endorsement – and its failure to move the needle for Burns. The MSM are now heaping attention on Biggs for having defeated a Trump-backed rival. For her part, Biggs is trying to sidestep that aspect of her win – making a point of saying in her victory speech that she will be solidly on Trump’s side in Congress.
Maybe so … but hardcore MAGA supporters may still require convincing between now and November’s election. Skepticism is especially high given the GOP establishment cattle call that lined up to endorse Biggs – and all the #NeverTrump money that flowed into defeating her runoff rival.
For now, though, Biggs’ stock is on the move up …
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KATRINA SHEALY
STOCK: FALLING
Last month, they were known as the “Sister Senators.” Today, four of their five members can be called the “Lame Ducks.”
Lexington County incumbent Katrina Shealy lost her bid for a fourth term in the S.C. Senate in Tuesday’s runoffs – becoming the third GOP “Sister Senator” to be rebuked by their Republican primary electorate. Challenger Carlisle Kennedy – the son of a former state representative – defeated her with 62.5 percent of the vote in a runoff rout.
It was a stinging rebuke of Shealy, who was originally elected with conservative U.S. senator Jim DeMint’s backing. After losing her first attempt to unseat state senator Jake Knotts in 2008, she made headlines in 2012 when she was kicked off the GOP ballot due to improperly filed paperwork. The case she filed landed in the S.C. supreme court’s lap and ultimately resulted in some 200 other candidates being booted off the ballot for incorrectly filed paperwork.
Shealy ultimately ran as a write-in candidate and knocked off Knotts with a 51 percent win. She was easily reelected in 2016 and 2020 as a Republican.
Everything changed in her last term when Shealy joined four colleagues in blocking a near-total abortion ban in the Senate. Two of them, Penry Gustafson and Sandy Senn, were defeated for reelection in the June 11 primary. Both campaigned for Shealy during the runoff. Now, all three are out of a job.
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FREEDOM CAUCUS
STOCK: RISING
Fresh on the heels of its big win in the primary earlier this month, the South Carolina Freedom Caucus had another good night on Tuesday. Despite the $2 million effort to oust its members led by the so-called Palmetto Truth Project (the thinly-veiled electoral arm of House Republican Leadership), not only were all seventeen Freedom Caucus incumbents reelected but three others joined their ranks as well — bumping off two members of leadership the process.
That momentum continued Tuesday when Freedom Caucus candidates Chris Huff in Greenville County and Sarita Edgerton in Spartanburg County easily won their runoff elections.
When the next legislative session gavels to order in January, more than twenty representatives will be Freedom Caucus members. GOP establishment leaders might as well start stocking up on a generous supply of aspirin now; they’re going to need it.
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DONALD TRUMP
STOCK: HOLDING
From a strictly Palmetto State perspective, this month’s primary and runoff were a mixed bag for the former president. Many GOP candidates at different levels covet his backing – and Trump isn’t shy about dishing out his endorsements on a wholesale basis. That includes here in South Carolina, the state that launched him on his bid to the White House in 2016.
Trump sidestepped political quicksand early in S.C. House races. Both the GOP establishment and the Freedom Caucus each pushed for him to back their candidates. So, Trump World decided to split the baby by generally endorsing incumbents over challengers.
With a few notable exceptions, incumbents mostly had a good night on June 11.
On the congressional level, Trump had two big wins with his South Carolina endorsements. Incumbents Nancy Mace and William Timmons banked on his backing heavily to beat back primary challengers. But as noted earlier, Trump-backed Mark Burns fell less than 1,100 votes shy of winning in Tuesday’s runoff.
The upshot: Trump’s popularity remains rock-solid among Palmetto Republicans. The downside? It’s not the be-all-end-all. Which means if you’re running for office on the GOP ballot, landing his endorsement isn’t a surefire guarantee of victory, but it sure doesn’t hurt, either.
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THE SQUAD
STOCK: FALLING
Ok, so this final item didn’t happen in South Carolina. But the state’s political crowd is buzzing about it and so it deserves a mention.
For the first time ever, a member of the so-called “Squad” has been defeated at the ballot box.
Despite the backing of socialist U.S. senator Bernie Sanders and fellow Squad member Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, congressman Jamaal Bowman’s reelection campaign is kaput.
The far left congressman was soundly defeated Tuesday in the Democratic primary for New York’s 16th congressional district. Not only is Bowman the first House member of either party to lose reelection so far in 2024, but his $14 million contest has the dubious distinction of being among the most expensive congressional races ever.
You will recall Bowman was censured by the House last December for having pulled a fire alarm in a House office building while the House was in session. (He also pleaded guilty to a misdemeanor charge and was slapped with a $1,000 fine and three months probation.)
Antics aside, Bowman’s defeat should serve as a wake-up call to progressive Democrats. Their full-throated support of Palestinians in the Hamas War often bleeds into overt antisemitism and racism. During a campaign rally over the weekend, the soon-to-be ex-congressman bellowed, “We are going to show f*cking AIPAC (the American Israel Public Affairs Committee ) the power of the f*cking South Bronx!”
Instead, voters showed Bowman the door.
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1 comment
Sister senators?!? Good riddance…