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The Economy: Where Will It Go In 2015?

OPTIMISTS BATTLE REALISTS …  || By FITSNEWS || We’ve touched on it a couple times in our posts about the impact of falling gas prices on the consumer economy, but there is a bitter debate currently transpiring regarding the underlying health of the American economy. On the one hand are the “optimists” – U.S….

OPTIMISTS BATTLE REALISTS … 

|| By FITSNEWS || We’ve touched on it a couple times in our posts about the impact of falling gas prices on the consumer economy, but there is a bitter debate currently transpiring regarding the underlying health of the American economy.

On the one hand are the “optimists” – U.S. politicians, mainstream media outlets and central bankers, to name a few.  They would have us believe everything is on the up and up … that America’s gross domestic product during the third quarter of 2014 really did grow by five percent (ummmm).

They also remind us 2014 was the best year for job growth since 1999 … although they neglect to point out the low pay of many of these jobs, not to mention the

Their goal?  To get consumers to “spend, spend, spend.”

On the other hand are the “realists” … the ones watching things like declining industrial commodities, plunging 10-year bond yields and a global slowdown in inflation.

And yeah … your eyes probably glazed over midway through that last graph, right?

Right.  At any rate, according to the “optimists” the “realists” are really more like “alarmists.”  And according to the “realists” the “optimists” are really more like “propagandists.”

So … what are the numbers?  What is the U.S. economy going to do in 2015?

According to the optimists, good things.

“The real economy may end up showing more momentum than anticipated,” the minutes from the most recent meeting of the secretive Federal Reserve revealed.

Several members of the Fed forecast a “quite large” economic boost due to falling energy prices.

But is that accurate?

Economist Bill Gross doesn’t think so.

“When the year is done, there will be minus signs in front of returns for many asset classes” he wrote in his 2015 preview.  “The good times are over.”

That view is seconded by Michael Snyder of The Economic Collapse

We are moving into a time of extreme danger for the global economy.  There has never been a time when I have been more concerned about a new year since I began The Economic Collapse Blog back in 2009.

Over the past couple of years, we have been very blessed to be able to enjoy a bubble of relative stability.  But this period of stability also fooled many people into thinking that our economic problems had been fixed, when in reality they have only gotten worse.

We consume far more wealth than we produce, our debt levels are at record highs and we are at the tail end of the largest Wall Street financial bubble in all of history.

Wow … pretty bleak.

We continue to hope the optimists … err, propagandists … are correct, and that the realists (or alarmists) are mistaken.

“We’ve said it before and we’ll say it again.  We love rainbows.  And unicorns.  And we wish the U.S. economy was nothing but rainbows and unicorns,” we wrote recently.  “But until it actually is … we’re not going to feed the big lie.”

***

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39 comments

euwe max January 7, 2015 at 8:53 pm

….and now…,

a word from our sponsor

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R1dW8M4EqYY

Reply
shifty henry January 7, 2015 at 9:02 pm

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Reply
euwe max January 7, 2015 at 9:45 pm

His performance in “Limitless” was flawless!

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euwe max January 7, 2015 at 10:49 pm

Hey! Is it getting *warmer* there?

Reply
shifty henry January 8, 2015 at 7:44 am

I shuffled to the woodpile and looked up at the moon shining bright and then realized that the temperature was 2 degrees warmer.

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snickering January 8, 2015 at 10:18 am

Shifty, I would rather drink Irish Coffee and eat those Lava Cakes from Dominoes.

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Flip Coscoe January 7, 2015 at 9:00 pm

The GDP grew by 5% in the 4th quarter because of the GOVERNMENT REQUIRED OBAMACARE PAYMENTS.

It made up 50% of the growth! Pay or you will be fined and/or put in prison.

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Smirks January 8, 2015 at 9:13 am

Pay or you will be fined and/or put in prison.

[citation needed]

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Flip Coscoe January 8, 2015 at 9:15 am

Lets see Smirks. If you don’t pay the IRS what you owe them you go to jail! 1+1=2.

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Smirks January 8, 2015 at 9:18 am

If you don’t pay the IRS what you owe them you go to jail!

In most cases, this is true. However:

Please post the language within the Affordable Care Act that empowers the Internal Revenue Service to pursue people for not paying the mandate penalty.

Otherwise known as:

[citation needed]

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Smirks January 8, 2015 at 9:22 am

And before you spout off another retarded comment, here is an example of providing citation:

http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2013/11/13/enforcing-the-health-law-mandate-what-the-irs-can-cant-do/

The IRS is limited in its ability to collect the penalty. “Once the IRS has assessed a penalty,” says Burns, “there is no enforcement mechanism for collecting the penalty other than reducing a taxpayer’s refund.”

The ACA does not allow the IRS to file a Notice of Tax Lien for failure to pay the penalty. This means the IRS cannot attach a lien to your wages, bank accounts or personal assets. “Further,” says Burns, “no criminal prosecution or penalty may be imposed on anyone for refusal to pay the individual mandate penalty.” While tax evasion is a serious crime, failure to pay the ACA penalty will not land a taxpayer in jail.

The only way the IRS can collect the penalty from those that do not voluntarily pay is by offsetting any refund, current or future, due the taxpayer. For those that are not entitled to a refund, the penalty does not go away; it will be carried to future years.

Oh my!!! LMAO!!!!

Flip Coscoe January 8, 2015 at 9:27 am

And you believe that? You fucking dunce. Gruber is right-you are fucking stupid.

NOTHING this administration says or does is legal or true. Obama will issue a E/O or ‘opinion’ to change this just like he has done over a hundred times already with Obamacare.

Smirks January 8, 2015 at 9:29 am

[citation needed]

Rocky January 8, 2015 at 10:43 am

I’ll help him or her. Hannity – 11/23 – 10:32 p.m. just before the commercial on Buy Gold Now, and just after he plugged the Soda Machine, and announced his next guest was Looney Gohmert.

Rocky January 8, 2015 at 11:24 am

Here’s some examples of citations:

German unemployment fell for a third month in December to a record low, signaling that growth in Europe’s largest economy will accelerate in 2015. – Bloomberg Jan 7, 2015

Fewer Americans filed for unemployment benefits last week as labor-market tightening compelled employers to hold on to seasonal hires.- Bloomberg Businessweek Jan 8, 2015

The Dow Jones Industrial Average kicked off Thursday on a positive swing as investors saw gains in Europe, perceived a stabilization in global oil prices and a second positive note about the U.S. jobs market. The Dow was up 0.90 percent, to 17,743.37, while the S&P 500 gained 0.79 percent, to 2,041.86. The Nasdaq was trending up by 0.89 percent, to 4,692.02. – International Business Times Jan 7, 2015.

U.S. stocks opened higher on Thursday, putting equities on track for a second day of gains after the S&P 500 snapped a five-day losing skid and data pointed to a labor market that continues to strengthen. – Fox News Jan 7, 2015
Economy remains stuck in recession, with all jobs averaging only $1.25 per hour, and Obamacare costs souring by 1,456,204 percent. – Crapville Herald Jan 6, 2015.

Flip Coscoe January 8, 2015 at 9:24 am

Gruber told us EVERYTHING in the ACA is based on lies and misrepresentations.

The government is counting on that money to help pay for Obamacare. If people won’t pay the tax/fine they will lock them up to get compliance.

Smirks January 8, 2015 at 9:25 am

[citation needed]

Please post the language within the Affordable Care Act that empowers the Internal Revenue Service to pursue people for not paying the mandate penalty.

Flip Coscoe January 8, 2015 at 9:31 am

What gave the IRS the RIGHT to purse and DESTROY conservative political groups?

They had NO right to do it and did it anyway!!!! They will get the same ‘wink’ from the wHite House and go after those that will not be blackmailed to pay an unfair tax/fine.

Are you really this stupid? That’s it…you work for the IRS?? LMAO!!!!

Smirks January 8, 2015 at 9:34 am

RomneyCare (you know, the health care reform ObamaCare is based off of and was signed by the guy running against Obama in 2012) has language in it empowering the State of Massachusetts to pursue people for failing to pay the mandate penalty imposed by it.

The ACA was drafted without the specific language RomneyCare had and, in fact, specifically says the IRS may not place liens or haul people off to jail for failure to pay the mandate penalty.

Romney was more likely to have someone thrown in prison for not paying a mandate than Obama.

Did you vote for Romney? :)

So, yet again:

[citation needed]

Flip Coscoe January 8, 2015 at 9:40 am

I am arguing with an idiot. The law doesn’t matter to this lawless pResident and this regime OR the IRS under this lawless pResident, regime and DOJ.

The IRS will indeed go after those that don’t pay the tax/fine and threaten them with liens and jail when this money doesn’t come in.

You know it and why your supervisor at the IRS is standing over your desk right now telling you how to respond to Flip. Fool. :-)

Smirks January 8, 2015 at 9:41 am

I’m arguing with someone who doesn’t know how to cite information. I’ll attempt citing again:

http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/26/5000A

(g) Administration and procedure
(1) In general
The penalty provided by this section shall be paid upon notice and demand by the Secretary, and except as provided in paragraph (2), shall be assessed and collected in the same manner as an assessable penalty under subchapter B of chapter 68.
(2) Special rules
Notwithstanding any other provision of law—
(A) Waiver of criminal penalties
In the case of any failure by a taxpayer to timely pay any penalty imposed by this section, such taxpayer shall not be subject to any criminal prosecution or penalty with respect to such failure.
(B) Limitations on liens and levies
The Secretary shall not—
(i) file notice of lien with respect to any property of a taxpayer by reason of any failure to pay the penalty imposed by this section, or
(ii) levy on any such property with respect to such failure.

So yet again:

[citation needed]

Flip Coscoe January 8, 2015 at 9:44 am

Cite away. The law matters NOT to the lawless socialists in the wHite House. Ask Gruber.

Smirks January 8, 2015 at 9:45 am

[citation pls]

Seriously, how did you manage to pass high school without learning how to cite sources? Did you slip the English teacher a fifty?

Flip Coscoe January 8, 2015 at 9:47 am

I will cite Obama’s sources:
1.Koran
2. Stalin,Mao, Castro and every other despot regime he can borrow ideas from.

See…I did it.

Smirks January 8, 2015 at 9:50 am

Sandi, we all know as an ISIS member you know the Koran like the back of your hand, so tell us, where in the Koran does it say the IRS will jail people for not paying the mandate?

Did Stalin/Mao/Castro mention it in one of their speeches perhaps? Maybe you can cite that?

The readers here are eagerly awaiting you to cite a source that proves the evil socialist Smirks wrong! What are you waiting for!? Are you playing dumb to make Smirks look good? You’re a closet socialist, too, aren’t you, ISIS Sandi? If not, prove it to us!

[citation needed]

Rocky January 8, 2015 at 10:41 am

He / she grew up in Swansea.

Rocky January 8, 2015 at 10:40 am

Hey Flip Costco – if you want to stop arguing with an idiot either 1) stop arguing with the mirror or 2) stop arguing with Tranny Tango.

RLT January 8, 2015 at 11:21 am

You could just provide the asked for citation and settle the matter.

grandtangosuglydog January 8, 2015 at 12:45 pm

uhhh no he cant. But lie his ass off all day and call names..no problemo.

Rocky January 8, 2015 at 10:39 am

That’s why it’s working – right? Uninsured rate down to 12.9% – just think of SC and GA took the Medicaid expansion it would be under 11%. You’re such a Fox Flailing Idiot.

Rocky January 8, 2015 at 9:38 am

Even if that is entirely true, traditionally Q3 GDP is the lowest in most years because Europe goes on vacation. And it has always included a bump of government spending since government spends out their remaining funds prior to the new FY. In a good year you typically would see Q3 coming in around 2.5% – and the interest rate trend is typically for a 500 basis point decline in September. So even if there was a huge government spending bump in Q3 as you say, that is still 2.5% which is line with a robust economy. I don’t make this up. This has been identified in economic modeling for the past 20 years. If Q4 GDP comes in still robust, that would suggest a fairly healthy expansion. The doom-day outlook for Europe is also pre-mature. Look, if I’m a weather man and I say – It’s going to rain but I don’t have the date – but sometime in the future – I’m probably right. It WILL rain in the future. Sooner or later. But it might not rain this week. Europe will eventually uptick based on US and Asian growth (and in this cycle we have a dynamic South American economy that in past years lagged). And in the short term (6-9 months) US stocks and bond market will benefit from the capital flight out of Russia. The lower oil prices will stay since Saudi Arabia and Gulf countries are committed to depressing US shale / fracking oil sources. They’re concern for punishing Russia is a dream. US and Canadian oil production is far more of an immediate threat. Just saying….

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Flip Coscoe January 8, 2015 at 9:43 am

Right on que-the babbling moron. Hey buddy-just saw SEnator Joe from WV lambasting Obama about Keystone, oil and switching parties!!!

+1 and we ain’t even to 2016. LMAO.

How sad you don’t get that the economy is growing (?)because the GOVERNMENT is telling us how we HAVE to spend our money.

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Rocky January 8, 2015 at 10:37 am

Flip – what does your comment have to do about 1) Economic Forecast 2) The Price of Tea in China. Geesh – are you mentally challanged? Can’t stay on topic for one Tranny Tango minute? Hey Day called, your Goat Milk is ready for harvesting.

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Derp January 7, 2015 at 9:57 pm

Why worry, ya ninnies? The republican revolution will fix every thing in time for 2016.

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euwe max January 7, 2015 at 10:47 pm

…and without unicorns, too!

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Squishy123 January 7, 2015 at 10:33 pm

My gut feeling is that chart may be correct.

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Just another guy January 8, 2015 at 8:59 am

realists. So just because you THINK you are right sic, you are the realists but people who think the economy is growing are not?

BTW, If you ever quote Bill Gross again, you should shut your site down. He is a bond guy talking his book. He has been very wrong for the last 5 going on 6 years. But please use what you want to fit your narrative.

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P/E's in the 60's- I'll pass January 8, 2015 at 10:03 am

Give me 1500 on the S&P and I’ll go all in. Patience is still a virtue.

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Scooter January 8, 2015 at 9:36 pm

The economy began to pick up, a little, when the public realized that the Republicans would take control of Congress

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