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Some Inconvenient Truth On Irrational Exuberance

PARTY LIKE IT’S 2007? || By FITSNEWS  ||  Americans are pumped.  Gallup’s economic confidence index is through the roof, and nearly half of the country believes 2015 is going to be better than 2014.  By contrast, only ten percent expect the coming year to be worse for them economically. And why shouldn’t…

PARTY LIKE IT’S 2007?

|| By FITSNEWS  ||  Americans are pumped.  Gallup’s economic confidence index is through the roof, and nearly half of the country believes 2015 is going to be better than 2014.  By contrast, only ten percent expect the coming year to be worse for them economically.

And why shouldn’t they feel stoked?  Gas prices are in a free fall and the economy grew by five percent in the third quarter, right?  Right?  Sure it did … if you throw some ISIS and Obamacare money in there.

Here’s the thing, though … there’s a fundamental problem with the fundamental narrative that’s fueling all of this irrational exuberance (thank you, Alan Greenspan).

We’re told that lower gas prices will stimulate additional consumer spending.  Which will fuel additional economic momentum heading into the first quarter of 2015 (and beyond).

Summing up the argument quite neatly?  Marilyn Geewax, writing for government-subsidized NPR …

The gross domestic product — a measure of all U.S. goods and services — has been on a tear. The Commerce Department’s latest revision shows GDP advancing at an astonishing 5 percent over July, August and September.

That growth spurt suggests the U.S. economy has momentum heading into the new year.  Lower energy prices will give consumers more money to spend, and that should help boost revenues for stores, restaurants, hotels and more.

Ah, yes … we’re back to rainbows and unicorns, people.

Geewax goes on to toast declining unemployment (which is effectively meaningless given ongoing shrinkage of the labor force as a percentage of the population), concluding the coming year will be “brimming with good cheer.”

But will it?  We certainly hope so.  A growing economy materially expands prosperity and reduces dependency – a.k.a. the “name of the game.”  But is this pervasive belief that savings from reduced energy costs will empower a consumer renaissance grounded in economic reality?

Not really …

Debunking this theory in twelve words is wealth management expert Lance Roberts of Street Talk Live …

Increased consumer spending is a function of increases in INCOME, not SAVINGS.

Catch that?

“Consumers have only a finite amount of money to spend,” Roberts continued.

In other words the pie may be growing for bankers, one-percenters, defense contractors and government bureaucrats, but it isn’t growing for you … and if it isn’t growing for you, then your energy “savings” aren’t really growing the economy.

This pernicious reality is especially true in South Carolina, an increasingly dependent state where citizens spend a greater percentage of their income on gasoline than citizens of any other state (except Mississippi).

Again … we hope the economy really is growing, and that the “surge” in government spending on socialized medicine and the military-industrial complex isn’t what “stimulated” the third quarter’s economic growth.  But we would encourage readers to look beyond the propaganda at the real numbers …

***

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80 comments

Smirks December 31, 2014 at 11:00 am

Doom! Doom! The end is nigh! Repent, sinners, for the end days are here!

We need to worry more about re-deregulating the financial sector and the ever-expanding student loan bubble more than we do whether some momentary good news about the economy is really all that good. The economy could be improving twice as much as they are telling us and it won’t make one bit of difference. Another swift kick to the balls like the last financial crisis and America will be back on its knees either way.

Oh, but we can’t have gubmint preventing financial crises, because muh free markets.

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Rocky December 31, 2014 at 11:17 am

Nicely said. You do realize the Dem ads against Jeb will be Jeb overlay with crashing home values, financial bailout, AIG collapse and Lehman failure, and spiking credit card payments – with a simple message – “Remember when?”

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euwe max December 31, 2014 at 11:40 am

The tea party ad against Jeb will be a video of wild-eyed Arabs training to fly planes into the twin towers in Florida with audio tracks of his brother and Cheney intertwined, droning on and on about any leader harboring terrorist training camps would be shown no mercy…

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Flip Coscoe December 31, 2014 at 11:48 am

The Democrat Party ad for Elizabeth Warren will be praises from China,Russia, Cuba and Tehran with ISIS performing a ceremonial beheading and Al Sharpton droning on about how mayor’s should allow their cities to burn.

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Flip Coscoe December 31, 2014 at 11:54 am

Obama wants to close Gitmo. Why can’t the terrorists work at the wHite House when they are released ,
if they are no longer a danger to America?

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grandtangosuglydog December 31, 2014 at 11:56 am

you should have asked Bush the same question when he released many that went right back to the battlefield..but you didnt because you would have had to have integrity to do so..and we know you dont..so easy squeezy.

Flip Coscoe December 31, 2014 at 12:03 pm

Bush? Damn you fucking fool!!! You still on BUSH???
That was 11 senate seats, 75 house seats, 9 governorships and over 1500 state legislature seats ago.

Bush loved this country, Obama is trying to destroy it.

grandtangosuglydog December 31, 2014 at 12:04 pm

ahhh ignore facts and scream louder..all the signs of a loser who cant make a point with facts. Hows your blog working out for ya? lololol.

Flip Coscoe December 31, 2014 at 12:13 pm

I just gave you facts, moron.
‘closet’ muslim Obama wants to put an American embassy in Tehran and Havana however shits all over Israel.

grandtangosuglydog December 31, 2014 at 12:19 pm

ahh the trolls last refuge, ignore facts and call names. poor little troll. Your whole life you have been someones bitch huh and at least as a troll you can make up shit and believe its real.

Rocky December 31, 2014 at 1:03 pm

If the toilet fits.

Yep January 1, 2015 at 10:08 am

So you are GrandTango.

Rocky December 31, 2014 at 1:03 pm

No Obama loves America and it’s people. You on the other hand hate Presidents. Probably because in Crapville it’s outside of your comprehension that a black man can be President. So sad you are little man. So sad.

FastEddy23 January 1, 2015 at 3:06 pm

… they do.

FastEddy23 January 1, 2015 at 3:01 pm

… and your point is what? … Are we being Gruberized again?

Johnson, Rumsfeld, Nixon, Kissinger, Bush, Cheney, Clinton, Albright, Clinton, Bush, Obama, Clinton, Goldman Sacks of It, AT&T … ALL part of the “progressive” controlled military/industrial complex Eisenhower warned us all about in 1959.

Rather than “Is Man Good?” the real question is is “Is Government Good?”

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euwe max January 1, 2015 at 10:02 pm

Civilization does not exist without government.

FastEddy23 January 2, 2015 at 1:07 pm

Brrr-HaHaHa … LOL/LOL/LOL

Government can not exist without taxpayers.

Reducing taxes reduces government, or is that simple logic too deep to be related here?

Civilization may not exist (yet) without fire departments and police … except when the firemen start setting fires and the police arrest more for political in-correctness than for stealing from taxpayers.

euwe max January 2, 2015 at 2:22 pm

ahhh… yes… I remember when I first read Atlas Shrugged

FastEddy23 January 2, 2015 at 4:03 pm

Embarrassment: but I never read it. I did see the movie (part 1) however.

Civilization? January 2, 2015 at 8:05 pm

Civility doesn’t exist because of government.

Buz Martin January 2, 2015 at 8:56 am

Wonder if we will once again see the clips of the terrorists training on monkey bars? That was always supposed to inspire fear, for some reason. I guess it was like “These guys are so mean they will take over the monkey bars at your child’s playground and make them cry!”

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euwe max January 2, 2015 at 2:24 pm

We have monkey bars here in Texas – we call them “Gilley’s”

euwe max December 31, 2014 at 11:25 am

If meth were legal, libertarianism would fix the free markets by staying up all night.

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FastEddy23 January 1, 2015 at 2:50 pm

… and you know where of you speak?

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Buz Martin January 2, 2015 at 8:53 am

Do you think all libertarians have yachts? Hardly. T-Rav is not a typical libertarian. The crony capitalists/corporatists have yatchs, sometimes several of them. But I know a lot of libertarians who live in trailers. Most of them double-wides, but trailers still. Nothing wrong with that, but I just wanted to point out that you were a bit off on the yacht thing.

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Flip Coscoe December 31, 2014 at 11:29 am

SNAP participation in November 2014 was 46,459,998.

47,000,000 people on food stamps and idiots Rocky and Smirks believe the economy is improving.

No wonder the Democrat party has lost 11 senate, 75 house, 11 governorships and over 1500 state legislature seats since 2008.

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Torch December 31, 2014 at 11:38 am

And most of them work. Lots serve in the military. If the kochsuckers would pay a real wage, then the rate of participation would go down.

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Flip Coscoe December 31, 2014 at 11:40 am

No adult should be on food stamps. Children should not go hungry.

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grandtangosuglydog December 31, 2014 at 11:54 am

wait till you see what happens in 2016..of course then you will just scream about invalid voters, when you win..silence..when you lose and you will in 2016..the same ol same ol huh grandasshat/sandi/loser of the year flip?

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Flip Coscoe December 31, 2014 at 11:58 am

I saw what happened in 2014.LMAO!!!! For 6 years Chairman Barry Hussein Mao has decimated the Democrat Party and you perverted, American hating frauds can’t steal the 2016 elections if JFK was on the ballot!!!

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Rocky December 31, 2014 at 1:01 pm

And the White House four out of the last six Presidential elections – dumb @$$

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Flip Coscoe December 31, 2014 at 1:02 pm

Republicans have won 5 out of the last 9 Presidential elections.

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Rocky December 31, 2014 at 1:30 pm

Right, but we only needed one to get Affordable Healthcare – which will not be repealed, and Jeb Bush will run on expanding it.

Rocky December 31, 2014 at 2:13 pm

And left us with two of the last two great recessions. Nice record. You must be proud.

Squishy123 December 31, 2014 at 1:08 pm

I thought it was four of the last nine elections.

“@$$”… did GrandTango take on yet another name?

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Bible Thumper December 31, 2014 at 1:34 pm

Bush has won 3 out of the last 7 presidential elections. ????

Flip Coscoe December 31, 2014 at 1:37 pm

That was my point. 5 of 9 after Jeb wins in 2016 and 2020. :-)

Flip Coscoe December 31, 2014 at 11:34 am

According to the October jobs report, more than 92 million Americans — 37% of the civilian population aged 16 and over — are neither employed nor unemployed, but fall in the category of “not in the labor force.” That means they aren’t working now but haven’t looked for work recently enough to be counted as unemployed.

Only Rocky and Smirks could believe the economy is improving when almost 40% of civilians 16 and over are unemployed.

You liberals really are making fools of yourselves. Carry on.

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Rocky December 31, 2014 at 1:00 pm

You just never get it right do you? You going to spend your whole life trying to convince yourself things suck? The consumers (who are people with jobs) are saying you’re wrong. YOu seem to have issues admitting you are wrong. Oh well, think I’ll go to the store now. Bye bye and have a happy time in Crapville. Obviously you still live there.

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Flip Coscoe December 31, 2014 at 1:01 pm

Last day of the month-clean out that EBT card.

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Smh January 1, 2015 at 10:07 am

Flip/GrandTango’s life is utter shit. At least he has an Internet connection.

Thank you commie December 31, 2014 at 11:08 pm

“Oh, but we can’t have gubmint preventing financial crises, because muh free markets.”

Do you realize markets are either free or not? In that context, are you really for unfree markets?

Assuming the answer is yes, because you are constantly deriding them, your Maoist Khmer tendencies will only lead down the same path that others feeling the same eventually go if they were put fully into force….death, poverty, etc.

“Free markets” are nothing more than voluntary exchange…that you hate the idea of them makes you nothing more than a cheerleader for dictatorships.

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FastEddy23 January 1, 2015 at 2:54 pm

“… [another] financial crisis and America will be back on its knees either way. …”

Like? … maybe a crisis in g’ment? … If Only!

Those “progressive” Fascists and their Helots need to be taken down a peg or twenty. … Let’s Abolish the IRS!

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Jack January 2, 2015 at 6:42 pm

There is but one path to salvation, and his name is Laffer.
Praise him from whom all knowledge flows, praise him ye poor folk here below, praise him above ye billionaires; and in return he will rain down millions upon us, and cause the free market system to rein in the evil doers, and protect us without the need for government. ..

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Rocky December 31, 2014 at 11:15 am

I found this website that has news on South Carolina. They have an article starting with this, “As this country has experienced six years of President Barack Obama getting all that he wants, liberal politics are revealed as race-hate, gender-hate and contempt for our people.” God, that sounds like the dog humper Grand Tango. Is that his/her site – some SC Digest thing or something? It’s like a two-bit blog thing for restringing guitars for retards – had like 6 stories in December? Heck FITS posts like six to 10 stories a day. FITS has like six articles just on the weekends. If this is the Grande Taco site – lame would be too good a word for it. Oh, and BTW – his Dec 17 article says Jeb Bush is nothing to worry about. Now there’s the proof this T Lawerence guy or gal is a complete idiot.
Oh, the other day I bought a gallon of milk. The price was down from $4.09 to $3.79. So if teh price on Jan 2, 2015 is $3.78 I already start the New Year off better than before. Jesus Christ, the tone here is if you were getting a hummer while watching the US Open you’de complain Sergio was going to blow his two-stroke lead.

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Say Waaaaa December 31, 2014 at 11:31 am

I thought this comments section was his blog?

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Flip Coscoe December 31, 2014 at 11:38 am

Tango deserves a break at SCPD. He kicked the shit out of you ISIS loving,gay marriage supporting and American hating liberals, libertarians and RINO”S on November 4th.

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grandtangosuglydog December 31, 2014 at 11:53 am

So you where the one unique ip hit on his site..i was wondering who visited the lamest blog around. Did you actually see tumble weeds blowing by on the screen?

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euwe max December 31, 2014 at 11:24 am

“Irrational Exuberance” – the death knell of libertarianism.

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GrandTango December 31, 2014 at 11:48 am

“Irrational Exuberance” – the product of a corrupt and deceitful media that covers up reality, in hopes it can reverse the nosedive Obama – and the Democrat party – is in….

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Rocky December 31, 2014 at 1:33 pm

Oh, we’re blaming the media now? How pathetic you have become.

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Yikes December 31, 2014 at 11:27 am

SC must be a dismal place. Sounds like the people who live there hate it. Do smart people leave or does it just attract the more ignorant people of the nation?

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grandtangosuglydog December 31, 2014 at 11:51 am

They leave..and whats left?…Grandasshat and flip if not the same miserable person whose life apparently sucks beyond belief.

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You tell us December 31, 2014 at 11:10 pm

We’re not sure, what brought you to this SC website?

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GrandTango December 31, 2014 at 11:47 am

With no REAL job growth, and income increase…NOTHING will really get better…

The economy has been abysmal since it became inevitable Obama would be president…

And nothing will really get better until ALL Democrats are gone from majority power…or the GOP uses its majority to be seated in Jan. to Overpower Obama, and begin the reversing of his Wrong and Damaging, anti-American policies.

We also need to FUMIGATE to offices that are infested w/ Liberal bureaucrats. Liberalism must be defeated, because it is a disease, and no healing can occur until it is eradicated.

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grandtangosuglydog December 31, 2014 at 11:50 am

ahh the mayor of Crapville chimes in with his/her vast knowledge.

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GrandTango December 31, 2014 at 11:56 am

Can you Specifically dispute what I implied?

Do you contend that our economy can actually expand, w/o new, earned wealth?

You’re an idiot if you do….It just does not work like you, Obama and the media claim it does…

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grandtangosuglydog December 31, 2014 at 11:59 am

well i could start with your first sentence..but since you forget the bush years and the total collapse of the economy, couple piss poorly planned wars etc paid with credit from China..but hell why bother, you are an asshat with no integrity and just ignore facts and blame every thing in your sad miserable existence on one man..Obama..then probably work in anal sex and sucking someone off..so no..ill stop.

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GrandTango December 31, 2014 at 12:03 pm

So you can’t..I’m not surprised..

You choose instead to still blame Bush, who oversaw a REAL unemployment rate of 4.5 percent, and gas prices that averaged under $2 a gallon for his first 6 years..

Not to mention: Congress – Hillary and Kerry – voted for Iraq. Why do you blame Bush? Obama claimed victory for Iraq, with Biden, until they turned into defeat…..And Obama LOVED invading Afghanistan. It was HIS kind of war…

You are an uneducated idiot…who is ignorant of reality, because you are influenced by people who know Dumb@$$#$ will believe what they are told…You are that DUMB@$$…

grandtangosuglydog December 31, 2014 at 12:07 pm

see ive won again..no facts just calling names and forgetting the result of the bush years..or as you call it..the last quarter of his time in office. You ignore the results and make up facts to support your sad argument of why your shitty life is..well shitty. You are a joke of a troll who gets no respect hence why your blog was and is such a failure. You give no respect so you get none..zippo..nothing. You stew in the soup you made. But of course keep blaming Obama with the ever present obsession about anal sex and sucking someone off.

GrandTango December 31, 2014 at 2:18 pm

Desperate much?

grandtangosuglydog December 31, 2014 at 12:17 pm

So it was Obama who invaded Afghanistan? Really? and you wonder why you are viewed as such a failure and a joke. Shit boy you are a special kind of stupid aren’t ya?
Its ignoring and just plain making up facts like this..these are just some of the reasons you get no, none nada respect. But you are just a troll, like your alter ego flip..i keep thinking you actually believe the crap you spew but no..just a troll.

Flip Coscoe December 31, 2014 at 12:23 pm

Obama invaded America, not Afghanistan. He declared war on America in 2008 and the mission continues.

GrandTango December 31, 2014 at 2:17 pm

Bingo…

GrandTango December 31, 2014 at 12:29 pm

Quit trying Dumb@$$…You sound like some redneck drunk Clemson fan, who fancies himself brilliant…

You actually represent how you America-Haters see South Carolina…your self-loathing is understandable…but most of us are nothing like you…

You offer nothing but dribble…when asked to produce thought, you reveal how vapid and stupid you really are…

grandtangosuglydog December 31, 2014 at 12:55 pm

so you truly do believe it was Obama who invaded Afghanistan. Amazing. I need not say anything more..you have said everything that needs to be said about you. Afghanistan..lol.

Flip Coscoe December 31, 2014 at 12:07 pm

That wasn’t all. Michelle was also fed up with her husband’s personal habits, including his chain-smoking, his snoring in bed, and being ‘clueless’ when it came to running the house.

He was, his wife maintains, not just ‘a fool’ but ‘a lazy fool’.

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-1215960/She-hated-snoring-breath-hated-nagging-How-Obamas-split-up.html#ixzz3NUog4SGj

He was, his wife maintains, not just ‘a fool’ but ‘a lazy fool’.

Listen to his wife…

Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook

grandtangosuglydog December 31, 2014 at 12:09 pm

what the hell are you rambling about..its adult time..time for you to go back to your “research”

Rocky December 31, 2014 at 1:07 pm

Well the obviously – dumbshit – the economy is creating new wealth because – guess what stupid – it’s expanding. Well except for in Crapville.

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GrandTango December 31, 2014 at 2:16 pm

Socialist redistribution is not expansion…it leads to collapse (see USSR)…..

Rocky December 31, 2014 at 1:06 pm

I found this website that has news on South Carolina. They have an article starting with this, “As this country has experienced six years of President Barack Obama getting all that he wants, liberal politics are revealed as race-hate, gender-hate and contempt for our people.” God, that sounds like the dog humper Grand Tango. Is that his/her site – some SC Digest thing or something? It’s like a two-bit blog thing for restringing guitars for retards – had like 6 stories in December? Heck FITS posts like six to 10 stories a day. FITS has like six articles just on the weekends. If this is the Grande Taco site – lame would be too good a word for it. Oh, and BTW – his Dec 17 article says Jeb Bush is nothing to worry about. Now there’s the proof this T Lawerence guy or gal is a complete idiot.
Shouldn’t you be writing an article for your cog? See the way it works is you get more traffic, you charge more for ads. Giving FITS more traffic while yours has nill isn’t how it works. That’s not how any of this works.

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hack December 31, 2014 at 11:56 am

Fleecing of the sheep has caused morale to improve. Continue the fleecing!

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Bible Thumper December 31, 2014 at 12:26 pm

Numbers are not always the most important thing. If people spend less on gas, that means consumer spending for gas declined. Even if they spend the savings in other ways, that only means consumer spending is level. Even so people feel better because they can get more for their money. Incomes may not rise, but it buys them more. Isn’t that just as good?
The economy is about people, not the numbers.

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Flip Coscoe December 31, 2014 at 12:34 pm

Excellent point.

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vicupstate December 31, 2014 at 3:09 pm

You are correct. There will be LESS spending for GAS and just about everything that has to be transported, because the prices are falling. That will lead to MORE spending on OTHER things and more savings.

The nutty right at Zero Hedge and FITS will slice and dice and interpret ALL numbers to be BAD. That is there narrative. The problem is the evidence is building that the economy is gaining serious steam, so it takes even more bullshit for them to do so.

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Squishy123 December 31, 2014 at 1:04 pm

Ask retailers if consumer spending is increasing. Everyone I know is still on wait and watch mode and has learned to live without and putting extra money into spending or paying down existing debt. You know, acting responsibly.

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Rocky December 31, 2014 at 1:11 pm

Welcome to Dec 31, 2014 in Crapville. The weekly Crapville Herald had a headline today – more people in Crapville are working at Wal Mart – and traffic at McDonalds is up do to people with real jobs in real states are stopping off I-95 for eats. The other story was about how Obama had destroyed the nation and that Hannity was moving to Crapville to run for mayor. In other news, Crapville just voted to cut education spending, and suspend the 14th Amendment.

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grandtangosuglydog December 31, 2014 at 1:30 pm

As the Mayor of Crapville, Grandasshat/Flip commented..”we wont stop till the rest of the country resembles Kansas!”

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Fits Ain't No Republican December 31, 2014 at 2:14 pm

Fits is just upset that Rich people aren’t getting their tax cut yet.

When the Republicans do that ,he will be in the amen corner alright!

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FastEddy23 January 1, 2015 at 2:49 pm

“… Geewax goes on to toast declining unemployment (which is effectively meaningless given ongoing shrinkage of the labor force as a percentage of the population), concluding the coming year will be “brimming with good cheer.” …”

“… Increased consumer spending is a function of increases in INCOME, not SAVINGS. …”

Nothing nearly as big and bright as any of that will happen unless and until the average taxpayer gets a huge, whooping big income tax cut, period.

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