DCPolitics

Don’t Believe The Spin: 2014 Not Settled

ARE REPUBLICANS OVERCONFIDENT HEADING INTO MIDTERM ELECTIONS? By Bill Wilson  ||  In recent weeks the media has been flooded with stories predicting a Republican sweep in the 2014 mid-term elections. Every prognosticator, soothsayer, and aspiring pollster has written about the impending doom for Democrats. And, while it may be comforting to read for those…

ARE REPUBLICANS OVERCONFIDENT HEADING INTO MIDTERM ELECTIONS?

By Bill Wilson  ||  In recent weeks the media has been flooded with stories predicting a Republican sweep in the 2014 mid-term elections. Every prognosticator, soothsayer, and aspiring pollster has written about the impending doom for Democrats. And, while it may be comforting to read for those who are repulsed by the Obama Administration and their never-ending stream of regulations and disregard of the law to suit their own ends, it may be a bit too soon to start the celebration.

Simply put, most of the polling is based on a turnout model that resembles the 2010 mid-term elections. And, to some extent, this may be justified. Many Democrat-leaning groups are tired and upset. Obamacare is a dismal failure no matter how much gloss NBC tries to put on it. The amateurish foreign policy of the current regime is truly scary to everyone. And Obama’s most loyal followers are mired in high unemployment, reduced welfare spending instead of sky-rocketing increases, and a general sense of being ignored.

So, conventional wisdom would dictate high GOP turnout, low Democrat turnout, and an angry – almost hostile – independent turnout. This, naturally, would translate into massive GOP wins come November. But these same conditions existed in Virginia just six months ago, although at a lower intensity level. The “turnout models” all projected a strong GOP mood. What happened to tip the scales to the Democrat and could it happen again in 2014?

The answer, as bone-chilling as it may be to the Republican cheering squad – is an unequivocal “Yes.” Consider a few facts from Virginia. In the eleven jurisdictions with the highest concentrations of African-American voters, overall turnout in 2013 increased significantly. In these counties and cities, there is no question as to the margin of victory – it will always be heavily Democratic. The only question is as to the overall turnout figure.

(To continue reading this piece, press the “Read More …” icon below).

Bill Wilson is the chairman of the Market Research Foundation, a non-partisan, research and education foundation that seeks better understanding of public opinion and factors motivating that opinion. This column – which originally appeared on the Market Research Foundation website – is reprinted in part with permission. 

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23 comments

Jay Ellington April 24, 2014 at 1:47 pm

It ain’t over in Richland County until Lillian McBride takes a big ole healthy shit all over the democratic process.

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Sandy Burglar April 24, 2014 at 2:38 pm

Never, ever, underestimate the Democraps and their willing accomplices in the media to steal whatever election they wish to steal. No matter how incompetent or malfeasant the Obummer Misrepresentation has been, no matter how many lies they’ve told (Obummercare), no matter how many broken promises they’ve delivered, no matter that they’re the biggest hypocrites in the world, no matter that their economy has sucked, no matter unemployment (and black unemployment) is still high, no matter that they have exploded the debt like no administration ever, no matter that gas prices are skyrocketing (again) on their watch, no matter their foreign policy is three stooges-esqe, no matter how many times they blame their daily fuck-ups on somebody else…none of that matters. The Democraps can always count on the same bunch of brain-dead idiots to buy the bullshit, lies and fear (granny is going to eat dog food) they always sell, flock to the ballot box and punch their ticket every time. And like Jay says, with Lillian McBrides all over the place it ain’t over without a good, old-fashioned election rigging.

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Native Ink April 24, 2014 at 2:56 pm

Blah Blah Blah I hate Democrats but I’m going to keep talking Blah Blah Blah

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Smirks April 24, 2014 at 3:12 pm

TL;DR: Still crying about “stolen” elections because 2012 hit the GOP like an 18-wheeler.

Jesus, do you morons really whine this much in real life? If Republicans sweep the 2014 election, I might not like it, but I’m not going to make baseless claims that the election was stolen unless there’s significant evidence to back it up. I believe they call that being an adult.

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GrandTango April 25, 2014 at 9:08 am

2000 – Bush v AlGore????….LMAO…I refuse to believe you are so F*#king Stupid, you’d set yourself up like that…

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Barry April 25, 2014 at 11:29 am

Thats right. The Republican Nominees on the Supreme Court awarded him that election. The only time that has occurred in modern history. Every recount in Florida shows Gore got more votes than Bush.

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GrandTango April 25, 2014 at 11:47 am

If anybody ever DESERVED to get F*#ked….it’s you and AlGore…so forgive me if I’m still Laughing My A$$ off at how we F*#ked your Stupid @$$ in 2000….(never mind AlGore NEVER lead in vote-count in Fla…but gained w/ every hanging chad those Corrupt democrats counted….

And maybe you ought to give back all the money you saved on gas under Bush..and the Job you had, because of his economy…

And: Can you imagine how F*#ked up the country would be if AlGore would have been elected..My Chakra could not take it….Hahahahaha… You Dumb@$$…

Deo Vindice SC April 24, 2014 at 3:24 pm

You must be confused, Nikki has created the lowest jobless rate in years, so she says. Nikki is our new champion for real education reform in SC, If anyone thinks Nikki Haley cares for something other than herself, then you are brain dead my friend. The republican party is not making a comeback as you would like to believe.

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GrandTango April 25, 2014 at 9:09 am

So you’re guaranteeing the Ds will take the US House. Obama has implored voters to give him the House, so he can finish his plans..You’re saying the country will vote for him???

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GrandTango April 25, 2014 at 9:06 am

Good points.
And what I cannot digest: These leftwingers NEVER care how they destroy the country. Greed and power is ALL that matters to them, through any means possible. No matter how many people are suffering so they can live easy and corrupt, they care not.

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Barry April 25, 2014 at 11:25 am

The only election stolen in my lifetime was by George Bush in 2000.

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SCBlues April 27, 2014 at 12:04 pm

Never, ever underestimate good old Sandy Burglar! Everything is the fault of the “Democraps” and “Obummer” and “Obummercare”. Different thread, same old regurgitated WorldNetDaily-inspired crapola from Sandy!

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SCBlues April 27, 2014 at 12:07 pm

From Sandy: “The Democraps can always count on the same bunch of brain-dead idiots to buy the bullshit, lies and fear (granny is going to eat dog food) . . .”
How the hell is Granny going to eat dog food? The “Obummer” Death Panels already killed her!

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Native Ink April 24, 2014 at 2:54 pm

Bill Wilson is the chairman of the Market Research Foundation, a non-partisan, research and education foundation that seeks better understanding of public opinion and factors motivating that opinion.

LOL. This guy claims to be non-partisan. This op-ed was as partisan as Rush Limbaugh.

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Smirks April 24, 2014 at 3:07 pm

Wilson is tied closely to Howard Rich as well.

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GrandTango April 25, 2014 at 8:42 am

I guess you, Hitler and George Soros would arrest him for that….

Sadly (for Fascists, like you) ALL Americans are entitled to Free Speech…not just your puppet masters and Greedy plantation owners…

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GrandTango April 25, 2014 at 8:22 am

The State newspaper
CNN
The Charlotte Observer
The MB Sun News
MSNBC
Cindy Scoppe
FOX radio News
CBS
The P&C
Warren Bolton
Time
The LA Times…
All CLAIM to be Non-Partisan…
Why is your Dumb @$$ not whining about them…????

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Smirks April 24, 2014 at 3:08 pm

Have fun waiting until 2017 to have a real shot at killing the ACA.

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GrandTango April 25, 2014 at 9:11 am

At least you admit that…most liberals claim it’s a done deal no matter how hated and disastrous it is…

Also: with the Senate in 2014, we can paralyze Obamacare…Then campaign in 2016 on KILLING it…

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vicupstate April 24, 2014 at 3:19 pm

You are overthinking it Mr. Wilson, The Dems had a weak ticket in 2009, and the GOP had a bible thumping trio in 2013, that turned off all but the hard right.

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GrandTango April 25, 2014 at 8:32 am

This is a Great, sobering and needed report. We MUST not become complacent. America is in DEEP, DEEP Trouble, almost ALL because of the democrats. We cannot afford to not win the Senate, and keep the House.

Some things here…

1- I kept waiting for Bill to mention the 3rd-party Liberal-Tarian in Va., inserted to win it for the democrat…(Ervin and French for SC). In 2014, Democrats are so HATED because of the mess of Obama, Liberal-Trians could hurt the D more than the R.

2- Virginia is the MOST Government Gravy-Train Riding State in the Union…

3- Using Romney vs- Obama, Romney is a Mormon and a Northeast Moderate. That doomed him.

4- Minority voters across America put Race-Hate FIRST on their list of motivation. If there is not a Black candidate, it hurts the D (Obama took out Herman Cain, because of this fear)…

5- African-Americans are tired of being depressed, taxed and relegated to food stamps and welfare as the ONLY option, in Obama’s miserable economy. Lies, smoke and mirrors only work for a limited period. Will they continue to be multiple-voter motivated???..

6-Will Attorneys General do their job pertaining to voter fraud to vastly decrease D margins in cheating precincts?

7- The media has WAY TOO MUCH pride to Ruse voters as a strategy. They are scared because they genuinely fear a GOP Landslide. They know Obama is a miserable failure..and are likely glad (and surprised) they have propped him as long as they have…

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ton April 27, 2014 at 12:19 am

What mess? Do you not know that the economy has come back….and full throttle….and that I’ve doubled my fortune (sizeable) under Obama.

Grand Tango, I read your way too frequent posts with amusement.

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GrandTango April 27, 2014 at 6:00 am

You must work for Solyndra or you get gov’t bail out money from the GM Union or Morgan Stanley…

Some GOP states are faring better, but our economy is sick, and has been under Obama. The only cure is eradicating liberal ignorance and your very bad management…

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