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by WILL FOLKS
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Over the past decade, the Atlanta, Georgia-based Trafalgar Group has produced some of the most reliable public opinion surveys in the entire nation. Led by veteran national GOP strategist and legendary pollster, Robert Cahaly, Trafalgar has also generated remarkably accurate polling data here in early-voting South Carolina over that same time period.
In the 2026 South Carolina governor’s race, however, Trafalgar’s numbers have thus far been consistent outliers – raising questions about their methodology as well as their motivation.
Four polls in the past fourteen months from Trafalgar have shown S.C. lieutenant governor Pamela Evette leading the field in the race to replace the Palmetto State’s term-limited, status quo chief executive, Henry McMaster.
What other surveys have shown Evette in the lead? None… at least none from pollsters her campaign isn’t paying.
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RELATED | POLLING DROUGHT ENDS
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According to the latest Trafalgar poll (.pdf), Evette leads the GOP field with the support of 25.2% of likely primary voters. That puts her narrowly ahead of four-term attorney general Alan Wilson (23.1%) – the frontrunner in virtually every other poll – and fifth district congressman Ralph Norman (19.6%).
In fourth place, per Cahaly’s polling, is first district congresswoman Nancy Mace (15.2%) followed by Lowcountry businessman Rom Reddy (10.1%), Upstate senator Josh Kimbrell (4.2%) and Darlington, S.C. resident Jacqueline Dubose (2.7%).
Dubose, incidentally, is in the process of being disqualified from the race due to her alleged failure to pay the filing fee. Her name will appear on the June 9, 2026 GOP primary ballot, but votes cast for her will not be counted.
As you may have already gathered, the Trafalgar poll features zero undecided voters – a major red flag considering most other recent surveys have included percentages of undecided voters in the 25-35% range. When pollsters eliminate undecideds, it affords them considerably more flexibility in moving numbers around.
The other red flag? Evette’s standing in other recent surveys, which have shown her slipping behind Norman and Mace into fourth place in this race.
Trafalgar surveyed 1,089 likely Republican primary voters between May 2-5, 2026. Its survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9%.
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So… does this mean we discount Cahaly’s results? Not on your life…
If previous elections have taught us anything, it’s that there is absolutely a universe in which Cahaly could be right – and all the other pollsters could be wrong. More likely than not, though, this survey – like Trafalgar’s prior polls – is part of a last-ditch attempt by certain Evette allies to convince president Donald Trump to endorse Evette.
Trafalgar is one of the polls Trump watches very closely, according to our White House sources.
A year ago, we reported that Trump had “no plans” to endorse a candidate in this race – and we’ve heard nothing since then to indicate we were laboring under a misapprehension. If anything, the razor thinness of the current GOP majority in the U.S. House of Representatives suggests Trump is unlikely to do anything to alienate a sitting House member like Mace or Norman – or the son of a sitting House member (Wilson).
Endorsing Evette would alienate all three of those lawmakers…
One way or the other, we’ll know soon. Partisan primary elections in South Carolina are scheduled for June 9, 2026. In the event no candidate wins a majority of votes on the first ballot – which is more likely than not in this race – a head-to-head runoff between the top two vote-getters would be held two weeks later (on June 23, 2026). The GOP primary remains the race to watch in South Carolina – as Democrats haven’t won a gubernatorial election since 1998. However, recent polling suggest the upcoming general election could be closer than anticipated.
For the latest on all of these political surveys, keep it tuned to FITSNews…
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THE POLL…
(Trafalgar Group)
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR…
Will Folks is the founding editor of the news outlet you are currently reading. Prior to founding FITSNews, he served as press secretary to the governor of South Carolina. He lives in the Midlands region of the state with his wife and eight children.
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