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by WILL FOLKS
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As South Carolina’s “Republican” supermajority confronts the confounding mathematical geography of redrawing the state’s congressional districts to conform to the wishes of U.S. president Donald Trump, multiple roadblocks keep cropping up in their path.
First and foremost, they waited too long to act…
As we noted in our latest report, ballots have already been cast ahead of the June 9, 2026 partisan primary elections – now just thirty-four (34) days away. Officials with the S.C. State Election Commission (SCVotes) – acting in accordance with federal law – have already mailed thousands of absentee ballots to members of the military and other personnel serving overseas.
Not only that, as of this morning (May 6, 2026) nearly 200 of those ballots had already been returned…
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???? As a battle rages over redrawing South Carolina's political boundaries, we FOIA'd @SCVotes this morning for updated data. Per the agency, 5,371 absentee ballots have already been mailed – with 193 returned. These are registered South Carolinians voting on the CURRENT maps. pic.twitter.com/T6BekIIVOs
— FITSNews (@fitsnews) May 6, 2026
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Beyond the immediate legal and logistical headaches associated with the redistricting push, a more pressing, practical problem has emerged.
As we reported earlier this week, a veteran GOP operative in Washington, D.C. warned us South Carolina’s partisan political lean has been shifting to the ideological center “far faster than many might realize” over the last few months. As evidence, the operative cited plunging presidential poll numbers from across the country that, according to him, have seeped into the Palmetto State.
Trump’s rising unpopularity – likely attributable to Epstein Files‘ fallout, an undeclared war with Iran and soaring gas prices – is creating an alarming amalgamation of acridity toward GOP candidates. Along with shifting South Carolina demographics (i.e. transplants from the north), results-challenged legislative “leadership” at home and the widespread unpopularity of top-of-the-ticket Palmetto State “Republicans” like U.S. senator Lindsey Graham, the GOP is facing stiff headwinds in 2026.
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How stiff?
We were recently provided top-line data from a statewide general election poll conducted late last month which, if accurate, would indicate South Carolina isn’t nearly as “ruby red” as it was just nineteen months ago. That’s when Republicans stormed to decisive electoral victories across the state by huge margins – including victories in six of seven congressional districts (by margins ranging from 16.62% to 46.36%).
The GOP also padded its legislative “supermajorities” in the 2024 election, for whatever that’s been worth…
Republican dominance in South Carolina isn’t just a recent phenomenon, either. As we often note in our coverage, Democrats haven’t won a statewide election here since 2006 – and haven’t won a top-of-the-ticket race since 1998.
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RELATED | GAS PRICES SURGE AS S.C. ‘REPUBLICANS’ BLOCK RELIEF
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Will 2026 be the year this decades-long streak comes to an end? Probably not, but the survey results shared with us last weekend bode very poorly for GOP prospects this fall… assuming they hold. According to the poll, which sampled 1,200 general election voters between April 20-26, 2026, only 44% of respondents currently approved of the job Trump is doing as president compared to 48% who disapproved.
That’s the first data point we’ve ever seen showing Trump underwater in the Palmetto State during his second term – and it comes, as previously noted, just nineteen months after he won the state by a 17.87% margin over Kamala Harris.
Meanwhile, the poll found the warmongering Graham backed by just 34% of respondents in his bid for a sixth term in the U.S. Senate, while über-liberal Democrat challenger Annie Andrews drew the support of 37% of respondents.
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Generic ballot tests in multiple congressional districts also spelled potential trouble for the GOP – further complicating the math associated with configuring an electoral map that would guarantee Republicans seven seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. In fact, we’re told this survey was one of the data points that convinced former South Carolina governor Mark Sanford to abandon his bid for the first congressional district seat he previously held from 1995-2001 and again from 2013-2019.
Several political strategists who discussed these results with us questioned their validity – although two of them indicated they planned to put general election surveys into the field over the next few days to “see if those numbers are real.”
“Everyone’s polling the primary elections right now,” one GOP pollster told us. “No one is even thinking about November.”
Sounds like they should start…
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR…
Will Folks is the founding editor of the news outlet you are currently reading. Prior to founding FITSNews, he served as press secretary to the governor of South Carolina. He lives in the Midlands region of the state with his wife and eight children.
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8 comments
“In fact, we’re told this survey was one of the data points that convinced former South Carolina governor Mark Sanford to abandon his bid…”
Marky Mark abandoned his bid because his real driving force’s last name is now Mckay. The apocryphal story she told about Marky Mark coming up with the idea of running for office isn’t the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth.
After Jenny kicked him to the curb, he managed to rally and appeared to be the comeback kid – however, he ran against “nobodies and no one” until Arrington primaried him. As bad as she was, she still trounced an incumbent only to lose to an even worse candidate, Joe “the ocean engineer” Cunningham.
Sanford’s time has come and gone, and he has only himself to blame. When he wasn’t “hiking the Appalachian Trail”, he was actually a pretty good representative. Even “Bimbo” Belén Chapur has abandoned him.
Trump has been an unmitigated disaster for Republicans in that he blew apart his loose coalition of anti-war Republicans and libertarians/independents by reneging against some of his major campaign promises, like no new wars, fiscal responsbility,etc.
It’s amazing to thinking that an alcoholic commie might have actually done less damage in office.
Speak for yourself (and I’d bet you’re not a Republican). He blew apart nothing, he reneged on nothing, gas prices will come down and we have the most fiscally responsible President of my lifetime. Maybe if we didn’t have all these illegals getting paid taxpayer funded benefits, we would all be feeling a little lighter but no, we can thank the Democrats for that. Speak for yourself, not for us….oh wait….you can’t becuase Trump bashing is just easier.
“Trump’s rising unpopularity – likely attributable to Epstein Files’ fallout, an undeclared war with Iran and soaring gas prices ”
You could also add the endless grift making billions off his meme coin, the billions his mutant sons look to make pitching to the pentagon, his inability to stay awake during meetings, confusing Iran with Ukraine, an inability to let go of an election he lost 6 years ago, his pathological lying,…jeez I could go on with issues that Will ignores on his agnostic issue by issue basis. Eventually the most braindead MAGA lunkheads will start seeing this, with a little help from 2028 Presidential hopeful Tucker “there’s demons in my bed!” Carlson.
Oh another one with TDS. Jesus don’t you guys ever give it up?
Bet you guys wish the day care staff from Trump’s first term were still in there wrangling this overgrown toddler.
“we have the most fiscally responsible President of my lifetime.”
You’re one year old?
lol… The real TDS right here.Over $10 trillion of the $39 trillion national debt is on him. The economy hasn’t even hit a brick wall yet, but that’s coming soon.
Maybe the people are tired of being manipulated by fake culture wars. Maybe trying to make the lives of black, Hispanic, and gay citizens miserable will no longer be enough to get white “Christian” citizens to vote against their interests. Maybe the people are starting to realize that Republicans have been running this state for decades, everything is worse, and no one in the GOP gives a crap unless you are rich. Maybe. . . NAH.