Crossroads 2026: Another Trafalgar Poll Shows Pamela Evette in the Lead

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by WILL FOLKS

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For the third time in the last twelve months, polling from the Atlanta, Georgia-based Trafalgar Group is showing South Carolina lieutenant governor Pamela Evette leading the race to replace the Palmetto State’s status quo chief executive, Henry McMaster – who is constitutionally prohibited from seeking a third full term in office.

Are Trafalgar’s numbers legitimate, though?

Founded by veteran national strategist and legendary pollster, Robert Cahaly, Trafalgar generated controversy last March with a survey showing Evette narrowly leading her better-known rivals in the race despite her lack of name identification. That survey eliminated undecided voters from its calculations, though, and only polled “habitual” GOP primary voters, per Cahaly.

Last fall, Cahaly’s firm published its first “real poll” of the 2026 governor’s race – a survey which also showed Evette in the lead.

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Cahaly earned well-deserved national acclaim for being one of the only pollsters in America to capture U.S. president Donald Trump‘s true levels of support during his victorious presidential bids in 2016 and 2024. His accuracy and prescience have earned him the nickname “the Oracle,” although his recent polling of the governor’s race in South Carolina has drawn criticism.

According to Cahaly’s latest survey (.pdf), Evette clings to a narrow lead over four-term attorney general Alan Wilson – drawing 21.9% support among GOP primary voters compared to 20.1% for Wilson. First district congresswoman Nancy Mace came in third with 17.3% followed by 9.8% for fifth district congressman and Freedom Caucus favorite Ralph Norman.

Embattled Upstate senator Josh Kimbrell drew just 1.9% support, according to the poll – while 29% of primary voters were undecided.

Cahaly’s previous survey – released in early October – had Evette at 19.9%, Mace at 15.8%, Wilson at 12.4%, Norman at 9.3%, Kimbrell at 1.3% – and 41.3% undecided.

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BREAKING: @trafalgar_group 2026 SC Governor Poll (01/15-1/20)

21.9% @PamelaEvette
20.1% @AGAlanWilson
17.3% @NancyMace
9.8% @RalphNorman
1.9% @JoshKimbrellSC
29.0% Und

See full report: https://t.co/H2D2dw7mCO pic.twitter.com/n61ZPETct7

— Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) January 21, 2026

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Assuming those numbers are accurate, Wilson is the candidate who has made the biggest jump over the past three-and-a-half months – climbing by nearly 8%.

Trafalgar surveyed 1,076 likely Republican primary voters between January 15-20, 2026. The poll’s margin of error is 2.9%. Curiously, the survey was put in the field just one day after Mace released the results of a poll showing her leading Wilson – with Evette in third place.

That survey specifically challenged Evette’s viability, with Mace’s campaign mocking the lieutenant governor for “burning through $2 million just to hang onto third place.”

Prior to the latest Trafalgar numbers, the most recent independent polling in the race – released two months ago by Atlanta, Georgia-based Wick – showed Wilson leading Evette and Norman (with Mace in fourth place). Our coverage of that survey was reportedly read intently by Trump, whose endorsement is coveted by all of the major candidates.

What is the true state of play in this race?

Clearly, all four major candidates have earned significant chunks of support from the GOP electorate – but none have been able to pull away from the field as of yet. Also, there remains a broad swath of undecided voters who will ultimately determine the eventual winner of this contest.

Could Trump’s imprimatur be what moves those voters to support one candidate over another?

Partisan primary elections in South Carolina are scheduled for June 9, 2026. In the event no candidate wins a majority of votes on the first ballot – which is more likely than not in this race – a head-to-head runoff between the top two vote-getters would be held two weeks later (on June 23, 2026). The GOP primary is the race to watch in South Carolina, as Democrats haven’t won a gubernatorial election since 1998 – and haven’t won a statewide election since 2006. That means the GOP nominee in this race is all but assured of prevailing in the general election next November.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR…

Will Folks is the founding editor of the news outlet you are currently reading. Prior to founding FITSNews, he served as press secretary to the governor of South Carolina. He lives in the Midlands region of the state with his wife and eight children.

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