Poll Shocker: South Carolina’s Political Calculus is Shifting

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by WILL FOLKS

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As South Carolina’s “Republican” supermajority confronts the confounding mathematical geography of redrawing the state’s congressional districts to conform to the wishes of U.S. president Donald Trump, multiple roadblocks keep cropping up in their path.

First and foremost, they waited too long to act…

As we noted in our latest report, ballots have already been cast ahead of the June 9, 2026 partisan primary elections – now just thirty-four (34) days away. Officials with the S.C. State Election Commission (SCVotes) – acting in accordance with federal law – have already mailed thousands of absentee ballots to members of the military and other personnel serving overseas.

Not only that, as of this morning (May 6, 2026) nearly 200 of those ballots had already been returned…

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???? As a battle rages over redrawing South Carolina's political boundaries, we FOIA'd @SCVotes this morning for updated data. Per the agency, 5,371 absentee ballots have already been mailed – with 193 returned. These are registered South Carolinians voting on the CURRENT maps. pic.twitter.com/T6BekIIVOs

— FITSNews (@fitsnews) May 6, 2026

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Beyond the immediate legal and logistical headaches associated with the redistricting push, a more pressing, practical problem has emerged.

As we reported earlier this week, a veteran GOP operative in Washington, D.C. warned us South Carolina’s partisan political lean has been shifting to the ideological center “far faster than many might realize” over the last few months. As evidence, the operative cited plunging presidential poll numbers from across the country that, according to him, have seeped into the Palmetto State.

Trump’s rising unpopularity – likely attributable to Epstein Files‘ fallout, an undeclared war with Iran and soaring gas prices – is creating an alarming amalgamation of acridity toward GOP candidates. Along with shifting South Carolina demographics (i.e. transplants from the north), results-challenged legislative “leadership” at home and the widespread unpopularity of top-of-the-ticket Palmetto State “Republicans” like U.S. senator Lindsey Graham, the GOP is facing stiff headwinds in 2026.

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How stiff?

We were recently provided top-line data from a statewide general election poll conducted late last month which, if accurate, would indicate South Carolina isn’t nearly as “ruby red” as it was just nineteen months ago. That’s when Republicans stormed to decisive electoral victories across the state by huge margins – including victories in six of seven congressional districts (by margins ranging from 16.62% to 46.36%).

The GOP also padded its legislative “supermajorities” in the 2024 election, for whatever that’s been worth…

Republican dominance in South Carolina isn’t just a recent phenomenon, either. As we often note in our coverage, Democrats haven’t won a statewide election here since 2006 – and haven’t won a top-of-the-ticket race since 1998.

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Will 2026 be the year this decades-long streak comes to an end? Probably not, but the survey results shared with us last weekend bode very poorly for GOP prospects this fall… assuming they hold. According to the poll, which sampled 1,200 general election voters between April 20-26, 2026, only 44% of respondents currently approved of the job Trump is doing as president compared to 48% who disapproved.

That’s the first data point we’ve ever seen showing Trump underwater in the Palmetto State during his second term – and it comes, as previously noted, just nineteen months after he won the state by a 17.87% margin over Kamala Harris.

Meanwhile, the poll found the warmongering Graham backed by just 34% of respondents in his bid for a sixth term in the U.S. Senate, while über-liberal Democrat challenger Annie Andrews drew the support of 37% of respondents.

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Generic ballot tests in multiple congressional districts also spelled potential trouble for the GOP – further complicating the math associated with configuring an electoral map that would guarantee Republicans seven seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. In fact, we’re told this survey was one of the data points that convinced former South Carolina governor Mark Sanford to abandon his bid for the first congressional district seat he previously held from 1995-2001 and again from 2013-2019.

Several political strategists who discussed these results with us questioned their validity – although two of them indicated they planned to put general election surveys into the field over the next few days to “see if those numbers are real.”

“Everyone’s polling the primary elections right now,” one GOP pollster told us. “No one is even thinking about November.”

Sounds like they should start…

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR…

Will Folks is the founding editor of the news outlet you are currently reading. Prior to founding FITSNews, he served as press secretary to the governor of South Carolina. He lives in the Midlands region of the state with his wife and eight children.

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