Crossroads 2026: New Poll Shows Nancy Mace Back in the Lead

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by WILL FOLKS

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Polls are coming fast and furious as South Carolina’s 2026 governor’s race enters its decisive phase. Last month, we reported on multiple new surveys (here, here and here), and this month we didn’t have to wait long at all for a new poll to drop.

On Wednesday (February 4, 2026), the S.C. Policy Council – a conservative-leaning think tank – dropped its winter poll showing third-term first district congresswoman Nancy Mace leading the field in the race to replace status quo governor Henry McMaster.

McMaster served half of former governor Nikki Haley‘s second term (from 2017-2019) and is currently wrapping up his second, four-year term. His lengthy, unremarkable tenure is scheduled to reach its merciful, constitutionally mandated conclusion in January 2027. Five Republicans and two Democrats have announced their intention to replace him, with most of the action in the race on the GOP side given that no Democrat has won a governor’s race in the Palmetto State 28 years.

While Mace’s poll position has fluctuated depending on which survey you are looking at, the Policy Council’s data has consistently placed her at the top of the pack. In fact, the bomb-throwing Lowcountry lawmaker has actually expanded her lead from the last time the Policy Council had the race surveyed.

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Last July, Mace drew the support of 16% of registered GOP primary voters – affording her a narrow lead over fourth-term incumbent attorney general Alan Wilson, who was backed by 15% of the Palmetto State’s Republican electorate at the time. Lieutenant governor Pamela Evette came in third last summer with the support of 8% of respondents, while fifth district congressman Ralph Norman came in fourth at 6%. Scandal-scarred state senator Josh Kimbrell was fifth at 3%.

According to the latest data, Mace has inched up to 18% support (+2%) while Wilson has dipped to 12% (-3%) – leaving him in a tie with Evette (+4%) for second place. Norman was the big mover in the survey, jumping five percentage points to land at 11% .

Norman’s momentum is noteworthy considering he has yet to open the saddlebags in support of his bid…

The biggest number in the survey? “Undecided.” With just four months left until voters go to the polls, a whopping 43% of the state’s GOP electorate has not chosen a candidate.

Mace hailed the results of the survey…

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New independent poll: Nancy Mace leads the race for Governor.

Support the only candidate with a plan to eliminate SC income tax and lower your cost of living. https://t.co/U4jTc9UagK pic.twitter.com/Eklwj1NUxr

— Nancy Mace (@NancyMace) February 4, 2026

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“It’s no wonder they’re coming after me so hard, trying to physically beat me in the press,” she wrote on X. “If they can’t break me, they’ll just make it up. Didn’t work last time. Won’t work this time, I pray.”

Mace specifically called out recent reports suggesting she had a drinking problem – allegations seized upon by her rivals on social media.

Wesley Donehue – one of the Palmetto State’s most inventive, influential strategists – ripped the survey results in no uncertain terms. Donehue also doubled down on the drinking claims against Mace.

“This poll is absolute fucking trash,” Donehue told us. “The sample is completely off. Nancy Mace leading the field is as ridiculous as her saying she doesn’t drink when every politico in the state has watched her drown herself in cosmopolitans.”

Donehue was previously one of Mace’s top advisors…

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RELATED | THINK YOU KNOW S.C. POLITICS? WANNA BET?

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On the Democrat side, state representative Jermaine Johnson was backed by 25% of registered primary voters while only 8% supported wealthy trial lawyer (and shirtless sidewalk rager) Mullins McLeod. More than two-thirds of the state’s Democrat electorate – 67% – was undecided, per the poll.

The poll also asked about the race to replace Wilson as attorney general of South Carolina, with 12% of registered GOP voters backing the candidacy of state senator Stephen Goldfinch. That put Goldfinch ahead of S.C. first circuit solicitor David Pascoe and eighth circuit solicitor David Stumbo – each of whom registered the support of 8% of registered Republicans.

A whopping 71% of registered Republicans in the Palmetto State were undecided as to who their next attorney general should be, per the poll.

As was the case last summer, Targoz conducted the survey for the Policy Council – polling 1,200 registered voters from January 24 through February 1, 2026. The sample size in the GOP governor’s race was 560 registered voters, while the sample size for Democrats was 348 registered voters.

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THE SURVEY…

(S.C. Policy Council)

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR…

Will Folks is the founding editor of the news outlet you are currently reading. Prior to founding FITSNews, he served as press secretary to the governor of South Carolina. He lives in the Midlands region of the state with his wife and eight children.

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