Think You Know Palmetto Politics? Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is

Getting your Trinity Audio player ready...

by DYLAN NOLAN

***

The advent of smartphone gambling has turned every cell phone into a casino. And while that’s unlikely to have good long-term effects on society, it has afforded South Carolina politicos an interesting new opportunity – to literally put their money where their mouth is on the state’s political future using the Kalshi prediction market.

Kalshi is a New York-based financial exchange and prediction market platform that allows users to trade event contracts — binary derivatives paying out based on the outcome of real-world events, such as economic indicators, elections, weather, sports and more.

The firm was founded in 2018 by Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara, who met as students at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). Their firm became the first U.S. platform designated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a Designated Contract Market in 2020, enabling federally regulated trading of event contracts. Kalshi publicly launched in 2021 and has since grown significantly, with sports betting and 2024 election predictions dominating much of its volume in recent years.

***

While members of the S.C. General Assembly are still mulling the best way for the government to get their cut of online gambler’s money, outfits like Kalshi are happy to continue allowing users to place wagers on a bevy of topics – including who will take control of the Palmetto State’s various elected offices in the 2026 midterm elections.

Arguably the most interesting of these propositions is the GOP gubernatorial primary election, which currently shows lieutenant governor Pamela Evette with an eight percentage point lead over attorney general Alan Wilson. Perhaps Evette’s bevy of stinging attacks on Wilson have driven her a sufficient upswing to earn a lead over the four-term attorney general.

Evette campaign spokesman Matthew Goins told FITSNews the prediction markets are reflective of the campaign’s success across a number of domains.

“South Carolinians are tired of career politicians peddling empty promises,” Goins told us. “From fundraising and public polls to Kalshi, every credible metric says the same thing: South Carolina is ready for Governor Pamela Evette.“

***

***

What’s been clearly illustrated by bettors is their flagging faith in Lowcountry congresswoman Nancy Mace, who only six months ago was securing the majority of bets put down on the race, but who now struggles to secure a dime out of every dollar wagered.

Fourth place candidate Congressman Ralph Norman could present speculators with a unique opportunity as his campaign’s deep but largely untapped war chest gives him an extreme amount of latent potential that may not be adequately reflected in his subpar standings by bettors basing their decisions on current polling.

At this point it would be wiser to wager on whether upstate state senator Josh Kimbrell beats the fraud allegations leveled against him than his likelihood of his winning the 2026 governor’s race.

There is currently $50,012 of trading volume in the SC GOP gubernatorial primary proposition. Although it is counterintuitive – this number is representative of the total number of contracts traded – not the total amount of money petters have put down on the race.

There is also a significant trading volume on the likelihood that Lindsey Graham will continue to represent South Carolina in the U.S. Senate.

***

***

Despite being booed off the stage in his home town during an appearance with president Donald Trump ahead of the 2024 election, Graham commands an impressive lead in the prediction markets. That advantage owes to his near-infinite war chest and a state GOP apparatus that serves as little more than an extension of his campaign.

Graham faced the narrowest prediction of returning to office in the weeks after Project 2025 architect Paul Dans entered the race. Dans’ prospects have steadily diminished in the eyes of bettors since this initial burst, though, with recent weak fundraising reports doing little to bolster their confidence.

Dans’ campaign has seen a turnover in staffers in recent weeks, and is in the process of a reboot it hopes will slingshot him back in the vicinity of a close race with Graham.

New campaign manager Seth Camick, a veteran of JD Vance‘s successful 2022 Ohio U.S. Senate bid, told FITSNews Dans is a winning bet.

“Paul Dans is Bitcoin in 2009,” Camick said before invoking Kenny Rogers’ hit song “The Gambler” and advising readers to “BUY NOW – we are going to the moon.”

Upstate entrepreneur Mark Lynch and retired U.S. Navy corpsman Thomas Murphy have both failed to secure an appreciable amount of wagers, despite each having the strong support of a loyal contingent of grassroots supporters.

The site also offers other South Carolina political bets, most of which this author believes you’d have to be pretty stupid to put your hard-earned money on the wrong side of. Nonetheless three percent of users are apparently crazier than Mullins McLeod in that they are willing to put money on a Democrat being the next governor of South Carolina.

***

***

Seriously, it is highly doubtful that even the chairwoman of the S.C. Democratic Party is dumb enough to take that bet.

A slightly higher number of bettors believe a democrat has a chance of besting the eventual GOP senate nominee, a longshit that is slightly more believable than their taking the governor’s mansion if only because so many GOP voters despise the candidate the party is likely to continue to shove down their throats.

***

***

Bettors beware – the Democratic Party has not won a statewide election in South Carolina in 2006, and is unlikely to do so even if current predictions of a red massacre in the 2026 Midterm elections eventually materialize.

While this news outlet is not encouraging our users to become degenerate gamblers, we acknowledge that prediction markets have proven their ability to synthesize all available information about an election into what is often the most accurate representation of the state of the race.

It is easy for political shill pollsters of either party to collude to skew poll results (remember when they told us for months that Kamala Harris had a clear path to victory,) yet prediction markets were consistently reflective of the DNC’s non-public internal polls, which accurately showed the seemingly perpetually wine-drunk diversity hire never had a shot.

Although South Carolina’s races will not draw near the trading volume of national elections, and therefore are less likely to be extremely accurate in their predictions, Palmetto State political professionals and concerned citizens alike would do well to track these indices as we approach the day of decision this June.

UPDATE:

After the publication of this story this afternoon (January 3, 2026) Wilson has pulled ahead of Evette in what remains an incredibly tight betting market.

Wilson campaign deputy communications director Woods Wooten pointed to the fickleness of the markets, telling FITSNews “any campaign using them as a sign of success might as well spend its afternoons searching for four-leaf clovers,” and noting “AG Wilson is ahead in every independent poll.”

***

ABOUT THE AUTHOR…

(Via: Travis Bell)

Dylan Nolan is the director of special projects at FITSNews. He graduated from the Darla Moore school of business in 2021 with an accounting degree. Got a tip or story idea for Dylan? Email him here. You can also engage him socially @DNolan2000.

***

WANNA SOUND OFF?

Got something you’d like to say in response to one of our articles? Or an issue you’d like to address proactively? We have an open microphone policy! Submit your letter to the editor (or guest column) via email HERE. Got a tip for a story? CLICK HERE. Got a technical question or a glitch to report? CLICK HERE.