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by MARK POWELL
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There’s one number in particular that’s getting considerable attention from U.S. congressman Ralph Norman and interim U.S. senator Darline Graham Nordone as they battle for the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate in South Carolina: 66,955. That number represents the 19.66% of the vote Congressman Russell Fry received in Tuesday’s U.S. Senate Special Republican Primary.
Math (electoral math, anyway) is first and foremost in the minds of both camps as they navigate an abbreviated two-week race leading up to the August 25, 2026 runoff election.
In South Carolina partisan primary elections, if no candidate secures a majority of votes on the first ballot the two top vote-getters to head-to-head in a runoff election two weeks later.
Without getting too deep into the weeds, Nordone placed first on Tuesday with 32.75% of the vote. Norman was within striking distance, finishing second with 24.62%. Simple addition suggests whichever candidate picks up the bulk of Fry’s supporters will be well positioned to claim this victory.
But in this case, simple doesn’t translate into easy. And in the rock ‘em, sock ’em world of South Carolina politics – famed for its bloodsport – nothing is ever easy.
With Fry occupying such a potentially pivotal position in this race, two gigantic question marks currently hang over the situation: Will Fry endorse one of his former rivals? And if so, which candidate will it be?
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We got a reminder of the power of endorsing in a runoff eight weeks ago. On June 15, just six days after the GOP gubernatorial primary, Norman threw his support behind S.C. attorney general Alan Wilson.
“When a defeated candidate does that, it sends a powerful message to his supporters,” a Republican pollster in Washington, D.C. explained. “It telegraphs the message to them, ‘I’m voting for this guy, so you should, too.’ It absolves them of any feelings of letting down the team and essentially gives them permission to vote for a former opponent.”
Norman’s backing helped seal the deal for Wilson – and played a key role in turning a potentially close contest into a landslide runoff rout.
Fast forward to today. The congressman from the Grand Strand now occupies the same position Norman held in June. And that’s where things get dicey for Fry.
On the one hand, many of his supporters are anti-GOP establishment types unhappy with the increasingly middle-of-the-road approach taken in recent years by the late senator Lindsey Graham.
“Asking them to now vote for Graham’s sister would be like asking them to repudiate their core beliefs,” the pollster we spoke with explained.
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Remember, Fry is seeking reelection himself this fall to a third term in the U.S. House. He can’t risk angering the very voters he needs to keep him in office come November and beyond. And memories of betrayed voters are long in the seventh congressional district. Fry got to go to Washington in the first place because he bumped off incumbent Tom Rice, with whom voters were still furious for having voted to impeach president Donald Trump over a year earlier.
Trump also figures prominently in the other side of the equation.
“Trump loved Lindsey, and is all in on (his sister) staying in his seat,” the pollster continued “He endorsed Darline even before she filed to run. And Ralph vexes Trump like a bad skin rash. He really wants to see Ralph go down in flames.”
Trump has always had a soft spot for those who have successfully sent Trump impeachers packing. The president endorsed Fry’s first congressional bid in 2022. Fry said in a recent debate the regularly talks with the president by phone.
“So what does Russell do if Trump calls and says, ‘I want you to endorse Darline? I need you to make this happen.’ What does he do then?”
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RELATED | WILLIAM TIMMONS: WHY I’M SUPPORTING DARLINE GRAHAM
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By the same token, what will Norman do when Nordone inevitably plays the Trump Card?
“If she gets Fry in her corner, and if Trump comes here and has a big rally with her at his side right before the runoff… those two factors alone could be enough to get her across the finish line,” the pollster added.
There’s also the problem of making sure a candidate’s voters actually cast their ballots. Turnout is the name of the game in any election. It’s always lower in a runoff than in a primary. Consider what happened in June; the number of citizens who voted in that runoff was considerably below the number that voted two weeks earlier in the statewide primary.
Will that happen again in August? And which candidate benefits from the lower turnout?
As this outlet observed earlier this week, motivation is the crucial element. And in this category, Norman appears to have an edge. As one veteran political operative pointed out, “Ralph’s people are 3/4 and 4/4 voters. (Meaning they voted in three or four of the previous four elections). Darline’s people are low propensity voters. (Meaning they’re less likely to vote in any given election, especially ones where no other offices are being decided.) Getting them to show up is often like pulling teeth. So, Ralph has an edge on her there.”
The clock is rapidly ticking for both candidates. Early voting for the runoff election starts on Wednesday, August 19.
Will Fry tip his hand before then? Or will he decide to stay out of the fray altogether?
Stay tuned…
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR…
J. Mark Powell is an award-winning former TV journalist, government communications veteran, and a political consultant. He is also an author and an avid Civil War enthusiast. Got a tip or a story idea for Mark? Email him at mark@fitsnews.com.
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