Is Donald Trump’s Endorsement Still the GOP Gold Standard?

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by WILL FOLKS

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The five announced Republican candidates seeking to become South Carolina’s next governor all have their eyes on the same prize: president Donald Trump’s endorsement.

Trump’s imprimatur is widely seen as essential to winning the governor’s office.

“It’s the Big Enchilada. The brass ring. The golden ticket,” one Palmetto political operative told us.

Yet one year into Trump’s second presidency, some observers are wondering if the presidential seal of approval is losing some of is luster.

We spoke about it with more than a dozen strategists, campaign veterans, pollsters, and communications gurus, both in South Carolina and in Washington. And their opinions were all over the place.

“The minute one campaign lands Trump’s seal of approval, it’s game over for the rest,” a D.C. strategist says. “Don’t let anyone fool you: that photo of Trump giving thumbs up with his favored candidate standing beside him is still priceless to Republican primary voters.”

Not so fast, say others.

“Look at the off-year and special elections,” another GOP strategist countered. “That tells you all you need to know. Sure, Trump’s backing is worth having. But does it guarantee getting to give a victory speech on election night? No way.”

A look at recent major election results shows more losses than wins for Trump-endorsed candidates. 

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GOP New Jersey gubernatorial candidate Jack Ciattarelli: lost

New York City mayoral candidate Andrew Cuomo (running as an independent after losing the Democratic nomination to Zohran Mamdani, and with Trump repeatedly bashing Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa): lost

GOP Virginia gubernatorial candidate Winsome Earle-Sears: lost

GOP Virginia attorney general candidate Jason Miyares: lost (Democrat Jay Jones’ text messages about violence and his political opponents were leaked in the wake of Charlie Kirk’s murder, making national headlines.)

GOP candidate Matt Van Epps in a Tennessee U.S. House special election: won

GOP Miami mayoral candidate Emilio Gonzalez: lost (ending a nearly 30-year GOP-affiliated hold on the nonpartisan office)

“In all those races, the key phrase was ‘off-year election’ or ‘special election,’” a veteran Republican campaign operative and MAGA supporter told us. “It’s Politics 101 that those types of races are different critters from presidential and mid-term cycles. Many rules of thumb go out the window then, and voters kind of do whatever they feel like doing. And don’t forget that most of last year’s races weren’t in exactly Trump-friendly territory. So, I wouldn’t read too much into their overall implication on the political landscape. Plus, Trump wasn’t on that ballot then.”

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RELATED | NANCY MACE RELEASES NEW POLLING

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“That’s precisely the point,” a Republican pollster countered. “Trump isn’t on the ballot in 2026, either. And that’s the 500-pound gorilla in the room this cycle. Love him or hate him, Donald Trump is a force of political nature. He proved that in 2016, 2020, and 2024. Voters respond to him when he’s running. But that doesn’t automatically transfer to the candidates he endorses, especially when he’s not actively campaigning as a candidate himself.”

Here in South Carolina, Trump’s endorsements have seen checkered results over the years.

The most significant was the 2018 Republican gubernatorial runoff, when Henry McMaster was seeking reelection for the first time, one Palmetto politico pointed out.

“It was like that movie ‘Weekend At Bernie’s,’” the politico noted. “Trump had to come to Columbia and physically carry Henry’s carcass across the finish line.”

Without that support, Greenville businessman John Warren might be wrapping up his second term as governor today.

Then there’s another example with mixed results. In the 2022 primary cycle, Trump endorsed two congressional candidates. One, Russell Fry, defeated incumbent congressman and Trump impeacher Tom Rice; and remains the seventh congressional district’s representative to this day. At the same time, Trump endorsed Katie Arrington in her bid to be the first district’s GOP nominee. Arrington ultimately lost to Nancy Mace, who still holds the seat four years later.

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Wishing a happy birthday to my friend and our president, @realDonaldTrump! pic.twitter.com/mePzplKXQE

— Gov. Henry McMaster (@henrymcmaster) June 14, 2025

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Which brings us to 2026 and the possibility of Trump endorsing in the upcoming GOP gubernatorial primary.

Will he or won’t he? And if he does endorse, who will get his coveted nod? 

With opinions all over the place, it depends on who you ask.

“Nancy Mace had the inside track on getting it all last year,” one person with links to Mar-A-Lago told us. “It was hers to lose, which she did in spectacular fashion last fall with her Charleston airport meltdown. Trump World has been very cool on her ever since.”

“Trump would be crazy to jump into this race,” the pollster we quoted earlier opined. “For him, it’s maximum risk with minimal reward. With a paper-thin House majority right now, the administration can’t afford to lose a single vote. You’ve got two members of Congress (Mace and Ralph Norman) running, plus the son of a third member of Congress (Alan Wilson). Supporting one runs the very real risk of seriously pissing off the other two, who could then be MIA on very important House votes. Besides, regardless of who wins, Trump will likely remain popular in South Carolina, and the next Republican governor will automatically support him for political reasons. So, there’s very little for Trump to gain from getting involved.”

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Yet, political pros also emphasized the mercurial nature of Trump’s personality.

“He could wake up one morning and decide to endorse,” one said. “It might be just that simple. You never can tell with him.”

Whatever Trump decides, most experts say a Trump endorsement in 2026 alone wouldn’t be a game-changer. That’s especially true as the president’s national polling numbers dip toward record lows. As of January 15, 2026, 54.9% of voters disapproved of Trump’s performance in office – compared to just 42.6% who approved.

That’s a gap of 12.3% – just shy of the record 13.1% gap recorded last November.

While his approval rating among GOP voters in reliably Republican South Carolina is obviously much higher, Trump’s numbers are still trending in the wrong direction.

“You definitely want to have (his endorsement) as a candidate,” one told us. “Especially in South Carolina. But let’s be frank; the bloom is starting to come off the rose. While it carries political weight, there’s no longer the same magic in the name there once was. Truth be told, we’re seeing the first sign of Trump Fatigue starting to set in among many everyday Republicans, people who voted for him in the past, and are now starting to look around for something new in the future. So, while it’s an important get for any campaign, losing it isn’t the kiss of death for the others.”

A final observation. When covering political stories, it is customary for journalists to grant subjects anonymity in exchange for their agreeing to talk candidly and openly. That’s standard procedure. Yet it was striking, and perhaps revealing, that every source we checked with while preparing this political feature story—sources we have frequently worked with in the past—were all unusually adamant about not wanting to be identified in this piece.

Which suggests that while its political influence at the state and local levels may not be as powerful today as it was just a few years ago, fear of MAGA’s retribution after reading something it doesn’t want to hear remains as strong today as ever.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR…

J. Mark Powell is an award-winning former TV journalist, government communications veteran, and a political consultant. He is also an author and an avid Civil War enthusiast. Got a tip or a story idea for Mark? Email him at mark@fitsnews.com.

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