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by WILL FOLKS
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For the third time in as many weeks, there’s fresh polling showing a wide open race for governor of South Carolina in 2026. Just yesterday, FITSNews exclusively reported on the release of a new survey from Atlanta, Georgia-based Trafalgar Group showing S.C. lieutenant governor Pamela Evette enjoying a narrow lead over first district congresswoman Nancy Mace and four-term attorney general Alan Wilson.
Late last month, we exclusively reported on another gubernatorial survey from pollsters at Co/efficient showing Mace with a narrow lead over Evette and Wilson.
The latest data? A survey from Quantus Insights which showed Wilson holding a narrow lead over Mace and Evette.
That’s three surveys with three different leaders in the race to succeed status quo governor Henry McMaster, who is term-limited after serving the final two years of Nikki Haley‘s second term and winning election in his own right in 2018 and 2022.
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Quantus’ survey had Wilson at 23%, Evette at 22% and Mace at 20% – well within the survey’s +/- 4.2% margin of error. Fifth district congressman Ralph Norman – who has trailed the field in each of the previous surveys – was in fourth place at 13%, while scandal-scarred state senator Josh Kimbrell scored his highest total yet at 6%.
“I’m grateful to see our message of law and order, conservative values, and accountability, the same America First principles President Trump has championed, resonating with people across South Carolina,” Wilson said in a release touting the numbers.
Of interest? This survey included “leaners” in its totals for each candidate – resulting in a percentage of undecided voters (16%) that was dramatically smaller than the previous two polls. With these “leaners” removed, Evette was backed by 17% of respondents compared to 16% apiece for Wilson and Mace, 11% for Norman and 5% for Kimbrell.
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NEW QUANTUS INSIGHTS POLL | South Carolina GOP Primary | Oct 1–3, 2025
— Quantus Insights (@QuantusInsights) October 7, 2025
Sponsored by Trending Politics News
Governor’s Race: GOP Primary with Leaners Included:
? Wilson – 23%
? Evette – 22%
? Mace – 20%
? Norman – 13%
? Kimbrell – 6%
?? Undecided – 16%
? Wilson holds narrow… pic.twitter.com/cx6MgjUZJ6
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Our takeaway from this latest survey? Frankly, its the same as Quantus’ pollsters, who observed that the “race remains wide open.”
With three polls in three weeks showing three different leaders… that’s definitionally “wide open.”
Quantus also released results from its poll for South Carolina’s U.S. Senate seat. According to that data, left-of-center U.S. senator Lindsey Graham remained the runaway favorite to win the GOP nomination for another six-year term – drawing the backing of 58% of likely GOP primary voters.
Upstate businessman Mark Lynch drew the support of 15% of respondents in that survey, while veteran corporate litigator Paul Dans – author of the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025 blueprint – was backed by 7% of respondents.
One in five likely primary voters was undecided – a number that jumped to 32% after “leaners” were included.
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That data was vastly different from a survey we exclusively reported on last week which showed Graham at 46.3%, Dans at 22.1% and Lynch at 4.1%.
Dans’ campaign was having none of the new numbers…
“In 2024 our pollster called all seven swing states correctly for President Trump,” a spokesman said. “This pollster originally called the presidential election for Kamala Harris. This poll was thrown together as a reaction in the wake of our poll showing our support has doubled as South Carolina gets to know Paul’s work with Project 2025. The Graham campaign is more desperate than ever with the rise of the most credible candidate he has ever faced.”
Filing for next spring’s partisan primary elections opens in March, with the primaries scheduled for June 9, 2026. In the event no candidate wins a majority of votes on the first ballot, a runoff election would be held two weeks later (on June 23, 2026). The GOP primary is the race to watch in South Carolina, as Democrats haven’t won a gubernatorial election or a U.S. Senate race since 1998 – and haven’t won a statewide election since 2006. That means the GOP nominee in both of these races is all but assured of prevailing in the general election next November.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR…
Will Folks is the founding editor of the news outlet you are currently reading. Prior to founding FITSNews, he served as press secretary to the governor of South Carolina. He lives in the Midlands region of the state with his wife and eight children.
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5 comments
Alan Wilson is unelectable, even in a poll that he pays for. Just. stop. running.
Evette seems too reserved and don’t reallly like her past/present business ventures. I want somebody that is going to be able to standup to people. She seems like she’ll cry the minute she does not get her way.
Why is the Greenville Republican Party meeting tomorrow to censure Pamela Evette???
Apparently they are missing them some Pam. Unfairly though saying she’s not “America First” because she hasn’t been to any recent meetings.
I mean she’s busy, but she’ll get it figured out. Once she walks in those doors they’ll forget all about it.
South Carolina is a true kakistocracy and that tells you who will win.