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by DYLAN NOLAN
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The race to replace South Carolina senator Lindsey Graham is consolidating around one main primary opponent, according to a new survey released by the Washington D.C.-based Big Data Poll.
The new poll (.pdf) assessed support for Graham and his two top challengers – Paul Dans and Mark Lynch.
The survey of 827 Republican primary voters was conducted both in June and September of this year – and reflects a slight reduction in Graham’s support as well as a consolidation of opposition to his candidacy behind Dans, whom the poll indicates has made major inroads among undecided voters and those previously supporting Lynch.
According to the survey, Graham’s support slipped from 49.5% to 46.3% between June and September. While that shift is narrower than the poll’s ±3.5% margin of error, there were statistically significant shifts in who anti-Graham voters are backing.
Dans – a veteran corporate litigator and the author of the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025 – hadn’t yet announced his candidacy when the first poll was conducted and resultantly saw a significant uptick in support, rising from 9.2% support to 22.1%.
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Dans appears to have made these gains largely at the expense of Lynch – a Greer, S.C. businessman who saw his support shrink form 10.8% to 4.1% support, according to the survey.
The number of undecided voters decreased by roughly six percent to 20% of survey participants.
What do all these numbers mean? Big Data Poll concluded its findings “continue to be consistent with other surveys in that Senator Lindsey Graham is below majority support even before (the) heavy scrutiny expected during a primary campaign.”
The pollsters further noted Graham is struggling despite receiving a ringing endorsement from president Donald Trump.
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They survey also interviewed a portion of the participants on why they feel they way they do about the candidates, leading Big Data Poll director Rich Baris to conclude “Senator Graham is now the most vulnerable incumbent Republican in the U.S. Senate,” owing to the fact voters believe “he is too focused on overseas affairs and not enough on domestic issues at home.”
“With a majority of both primary and general election voters unwilling to say Senator Graham deserves to be reelected, it’s more than fair to say he will only survive a primary challenge if the party fails to get behind the more viable candidate,” the pollster’s summary found.
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Sen. Lindsey Graham is loudly booed as he speaks at Trump’s Fourth of July celebration in Pickens, SC.
— Dylan Wells (@dylanewells) July 1, 2023
He’s ~3 mins into his speech, praising Trump and talking about helping him, and still being booed. pic.twitter.com/sxOAqBeKLT
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Consolidation behind a non-Graham candidate by SCGOP officials was highly unlikely even before Trump’s endorsement, but according to Big Data’s numbers – it could still be effected by activists and voters disregarding both Graham-loyal party officials (and the president’s endorsement).
When asked whether they believe Graham had earned his endorsement, just under half of surveyed Republican primary voters expressed their skepticism – something that is not surprising considering Graham was nearly booed off of the stage after being invited to address his hometown crowd by Trump during a 2023 campaign rally.
Although voters repeatedly identified Graham’s foreign policy (of attacking anything that moves) as a turn off, they also also believe Graham will revert to his never-Trumper roots the moment the forty seventh president leaves office.
“Perhaps the biggest vulnerability to the incumbent stems from a distrust that he can’t be trusted to defend America First policies and the president’s legacies after his second term is over,” the poll concluded.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR …
(Via: Travis Bell)
Dylan Nolan is the director of special projects at FITSNews. He graduated from the Darla Moore school of business in 2021 with an accounting degree. Got a tip or story idea for Dylan? Email him here. You can also engage him socially @DNolan2000.
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4 comments
Miss Lindsay has $15,000,000 on hand without even starting his fundraising. It’ll a lot of money to beat him/
The MIC is a generous benefactor. Evil, but generous to like evils.
Lindsey needs to go! ANY candidate is better than six more years of Lindsey and his war-mongering for the Military Industrial Complex as well as other betrayals. Satan would be better.
Voters are stupid. Years ago, Lindsey said that they have short memories, which is true. He said he could do as he pleased for the first four years, so long as he behaved (pretended to be a Republican) the last two leading up to the election. Please people, have a little pride and stop being fooled by this POS.
Big Data Poll is a joke.