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Ever so slowly, like steam dissipating on a bathroom mirror, the 2026 Republican gubernatorial field is coming into focus.
The race’s acknowledged frontrunner – four-term attorney general Alan Wilson – holds a steady lead. While he consistently places at the top of the pack, it’s not a commanding lead. Next comes congresswoman Nancy Mace, whose seemingly endless supply of stunts and snark has yet to make a significant impact beyond her Lowcountry district. Then there’s Lt. Governor Pamela Evette, whose badly bungled attempt to secure president Donald Trump’s endorsement earlier this year set a new low in political ineptness.
Following this trio comes a host of second-tier candidates, with Lowcountry state senator Sean Bennett foremost among them. This group includes a laundry list of possibilities, many of whom are state legislators said to be giving “prayerful consideration” to running.
There are also three outliers whose intentions are unknown – but who could have an outsized role in the contest.
First is John Warren, the Upstate millionaire who sought the office in 2018. Although he entered that race late in the game, he had a significant impact on it – forcing incumbent Gov. Henry McMaster into a runoff. Should history repeat itself in 2026, Warren has the personal wherewithal to once again make his presence felt in a big way.
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Then there’s Lowcountry businessman Rom Reddy, whose nascent DOGE SC movement has been putting misbehaving state legislators on notice in recent weeks. Reddy has made separation of powers a key component of his organization’s agenda, but does he have a future executive branch leader in mind to carry out that part of his vision? Or is it one of those “if you want something done right…” situations?
But the most frequently discussed wild card at the moment – the one that’s promoting the most guessing these days – is summed up in the oft-repeated question in political circles: “What do you think Ralph’s gonna do?”
It’s been an open secret for some time that fifth-term U.S. congressman Ralph Norman wants to exchange Capitol Hill for returning home to Rock Hill. And it’s equally well-known that he doesn’t have high office out of his system.
Norman is recognized in Washington, D.C. as an enthusiastic member of the hardline conservative Freedom Caucus in the U.S. House. But his interest doesn’t stop at D.C.’s border. He was a guiding force in creating the S.C. Freedom Caucus a few years ago as well.
Add to that his personal wealth. The former real estate developer is rich. Like Scrooge, rich.
“Money and a statewide conservative grassroots organization,” one Palmetto political strategist mused. “That’s a heck of a strong one-two punch. If he can get the right message, having the means to disseminate it and the connections statewide to follow up on it could give him a significant strategic advantage.”
Which is why so many South Carolina politicos are eager to know what Norman’s next move will be…
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It was initially thought Norman might challenge U.S. senator Lindsey Graham, who is up for reelection next year. But talk of that possibility has almost entirely dried up of late.
That prompts observers to wonder if his sights now center on the governor’s office. And that begs yet another question: Is Norman interested in seeking it for himself, or for a fellow hardliner who shares his principles?
While the lane Norman currently occupies is a prime position, some significant caveats accompany it.
First, there’s his age. He’ll turn 72 in June. On the one hand, if he jumps into the primary, he would be the silver-haired Scoutmaster running against a host of “youngers” such as Evette (57), Wilson (51) and Mace (47). Then again, age was never an issue for Henry McMaster (who turns 78 next month). Nor is age apparently an issue for South Carolina voters, who kept Strom Thurmond in the U.S. Senate until he reached the age of 100.
A bigger question is just how much support the S.C. Freedom Caucus could actually deliver. The group is in its infancy and hasn’t exerted itself beyond its own legislative membership. “All politics is local,” the late U.S. House speaker Tip O’Neill famously said. S.C. House leadership learned that lesson the hard way when it tried to snuff the Freedom Caucus in the cradle en masse in 2024. Not only did that clumsily executed effort fail, but several members of the leadership team lost their seats in the process.
Could the caucus flip the script next year?
Finally, there is the matter of Norman’s money. It is “the mother’s milk of politics,” as the saying goes. Sure, he’s got it. But a reliable rule of thumb says the more personal wealth a candidate has, the less likely he or she is to spend it on themselves.
Just look at Donald Trump. While he did eventually pony up some $66 million out of his own pocket for his 2016 presidential bid, that was well below the $100 million he had vowed to spend. And federal filings show he made only minimal contributions to his 2020 and 2024 campaigns.
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Having money is one thing; parting with it for political gain is another. And Norman isn’t exactly famous for opening his wallet – for any reason.
“He has a Sanford problem,” one Palmetto politico recently told us, referring to former S.C. governor Mark Sanford.
Quickly recognizing a “Sanford problem” could mean something drastically different than excessive frugality, the politico clarified: “He has a Sanford problem when it comes to spending money.”
Translation? Norman could easily drop $10 million into a gubernatorial race and not miss it.
All of which brings us to our final question: If Norman isn’t interested in running for governor himself, might he provide serious firepower in pushing a fellow conservative candidate? Even if he doesn’t open his own checkbook, Norman could open doors to serious conservative money in Washington, D.C. capable of putting a hardline conservative candidate on the political map PDQ.
Given that the GOP primary is now thirteen months away – and there’s still no dominant frontrunner – there is both time and opportunity for a serious dark horse challenger to emerge from the party’s right flank.
“The question boils down to this,” a strategist tracking Norman’s moves mused. “Is it king, or kingmaker? Does Norman want the job himself, or does he want to put someone else in it?”
Palmetto pols are waiting for the white smoke to emerge in Rock Hill, indicating the decision has been made. Until then, the guessing game goes on.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR…
J. Mark Powell is an award-winning former TV journalist, government communications veteran, and a political consultant. He is also an author and an avid Civil War enthusiast. Got a tip or a story idea for Mark? Email him at mark@fitsnews.com.
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