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As noted yesterday, our popular political stock index is splitting as we head into 2025. Last year’s format tracked an unprecedented and incredibly consequential presidential election cycle – one which included criminal indictments, assassination attempts and a full-blown coup d’état on the Democrat side.
Our stock index also tracked presidential machinations in the politically decisive Palmetto State, which every four years hosts the “First in the Nation” (for Democrats) and “First in the South” (for Republicans) presidential primaries.
Both races are wide open heading into the 2028 cycle, by the way…
So while it’s never been more important to keep tabs on national issues – which we’re doing via our FITSNews Political Stock Index – it’s also an incredibly pivotal period for South Carolina politics. The Palmetto State has languished economically in recent decades – and its government-run schools and critical infrastructure have historically been found lacking. “Republicans” (who enjoy supermajorities in both chambers of the legislature) are talking a big game on taxes this year… and they have also vowed to make school choice a top priority.
Can they deliver?
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These questions matter every bit as much as the drama unfolding on the banks of the Potomac… and those residing on the banks of the Potomac also know how critical it is to stay abreast of what’s happening in such a critical early-voting state.
Starting this month, we’ll be publishing a pair of political indices each week. The first one – the ‘FITSNews Political Stock Index’ – will appear every Monday and will focus on the national political scene (in fact, the first installment of this new format dropped yesterday). The second – the ‘Palmetto Political Stock Index’ – will drop each Tuesday and will focus on politicos from our home state of South Carolina.
Got a hot “stock tip” for these indices? Email Will (here) and/or Mark (here).
Where should you invest your South Carolina political capital this week? To the index…
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RALPH NORMAN
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STOCK: FALLING
Ralph Norman insists he took a principled stand by initially voting against House speaker Mike Johnson‘s reelection bid on Friday. That commitment to principle barely lasted ten minutes.
Following a quick chat with president-elect Donald Trump (on congresswoman Nancy Mace‘s cell phone), the Republican congressman from Rock Hill fell back in line, voting with all House Republicans (except Kentucky’s Thomas Massie) to give Johnson the gavel once again.
Now Norman is drawing flak from all ideological sectors of the Republican Party for his vote(s). Establishment GOP types never liked him in the first place. Even some members of the Norman-aligned S.C. Freedom Caucus are privately saying it was the wrong move.
“I understand why he did it,” one told us. “But he forgot Napoleon’s Rule of ‘pick your battles.’ With Trump taking office so soon, the speaker vote was the wrong fight at the wrong time.”
And that was from one of Norman’s friends, no less. Other Republican reactions were harsher. A lot of political bridges went up in flames on Friday.
That’s significant because talk has been circulating for some time that Norman will give up his seat in 2026 to run against U.S. senator Lindsey Graham – or possibly to jump into what is shaping up as a crowded GOP field for governor.
Either way, Norman did himself no favors last week.
Still, it should be remembered that while Friday’s vote may have been a tactical blunder, Norman did have a point in the greater scheme of things. The real estate developer has carved out a reputation as a serious budget hawk committed to restoring fiscal sanity to the government’s finances. As he pointed out after the flip-flop, an agreement containing concessions with former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy during the January 2023 speaker vote essentially turned out not to be worth the paper it was printed on. Norman’s position this time can best summarized as, “If not now, when?”
Will that be enough to placate his angry fellow party members? Until we find out, Norman’s stock has substantially slumped.
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NANCY MACE
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STOCK: RISING
Conversely, Friday’s incident was a political windfall for the other participant: Nancy Mace.
She may not be every Republican’s cup of tea, but Mace sure has a knack for knowing how to get people to talk about her. And South Carolina GOP circles are once again buzzing about the first district congresswoman.
First, there was her tour de force during the aforementioned speaker vote. As she huddled with Norman and MAGA emissary Hogan Gidley outside the chamber, Mace pulled out her cell phone and got the president-elect on the line. In a city where access to power is held in awe, that’s about as impressive as it gets.
Mace’s power play was quickly followed by more good news for the third-term representative. Frequent FITSNews readers will know D.O.G.E. chief Elon Musk is on jihad these days against a growing sex scandal in the U.K. involving Muslim rape gangs. On Sunday, Musk tweeted on his X social media platform a clip of Mace talking on the House floor about sex crimes committed by illegal immigrants in this country, accompanied by, “Thank you, Nancy!”
At last count, it had been viewed more than 30 million times. That’s substantial message penetration, folks.
Mace’s interest in running for governor in 2026 is an open secret in South Carolina political circles. If she keeps building her brand at this rate, she could enter the contest as a formidable force – which has her stock trading higher this week.
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MURRELL SMITH
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STOCK: HOLDING
“Now is the time for historic tax reform,” S.C. House speaker Murrell Smith posted on X last Friday.
It was a starting pistol, a public acknowledgment that the state House’s head honcho is ready to rumble on the issue. While it’s nice to see Smith has finally arrived to the party, it’s worth pointing out the party started more than twenty years ago in our neighboring states.
At 6.2%, South Carolina has the highest top marginal income tax rate in the southeast – an oppressively high levy which continues to stifle organic job creation and job growth. Neighboring North Carolina – which has seen multiple rounds of tax cuts in recent years – is continuing to trim its top marginal rate, with plans to reduce it further (from 4.25% to 3.99%) by 2027. Kentucky – where the income rate is 4% – is currently phasing out its income tax. Three other southern states – Florida, Tennessee and Texas – have no income tax.
Each of these states has reaped substantial economic reward (and sustained revenue growth) as a result of cutting taxes.
South Carolina? The Palmetto State remains stuck spinning its wheels in the mud (on jobs and incomes).
Regardless of Smith’s late arrival, at least he’s at the party (and some people do just love making an entrance). The question now becomes: How big will he go? Therein, as Mr. Shakespeare would say, lies the rub.
If Smith dares to go too big, he risks fracturing the fragile uniparty alliance his fellow establishment “Republicans” have forged with Democrats. Conversely, if he goes too small, there’s someone lurking in the wings to one-up him. In a classic reminder of the old song “anything you can do, I can do better,” Senate finance chairman Harvey Peeler is already letting it be known he’ll offer a bigger tax reform plan than whatever Smith comes up with.
So, Smith’s stock is holding while State House watchers wait to see what happens next. However, when it comes to tax relief, we’ve learned not to hold our breath.
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ALAN WILSON
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STOCK: RISING
Mention the 2026 governor’s race, and the name of attorney general Alan Wilson comes up immediately. While a compelling case can certainly be made for Nancy Mace as an emerging frontrunner in this contest, Wilson arguably enters the fray as the candidate to beat on the GOP side.
With Mace burnishing her GOP street cred (see above), Wilson is likewise getting his political ducks in a row. He’s beefed up his communications staff and is steadily expanding his extensive grassroots network around the state in anticipation of taking the next step in his political career.
Wilson has been adept over the years at knowing which buttons to press for maximum impact. In his official capacity, he’s staked out multiple legal positions on social issues (such as shutting down TikTok in the U.S. and limiting women’s sports to biological females) that have kept him in good stead with South Carolina conservatives.
There was also that ‘Trail of the Century’ in 2023 in which his office secured a pair of high-profile murder convictions against an internationally famous criminal… although those convictions are now in jeopardy due to jury tampering issues.
Nonetheless, a significant deposit of goodwill resides in Wilson’s political bank account – and he is now poised to take his popularity out for a spin.
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SCHOOL CHOICE
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STOCK: HOLDING
South Carolina’s Republican legislators have talked about school choice until they’re blue in the face, but when it comes to actually passing meaningful legislation which expands academic freedom in the Palmetto State… little has been accomplished.
Lawmakers took a step in the right direction last year with the passage of an Education Scholarship Trust Fund (ESTF) bill — but the S.C. supreme court slammed the brakes on the program in September.
With lawmakers reconvening in Columbia this month – and a reconfigured supreme court hearing cases – plenty of options are on the table moving forward. GOP leadership in both chambers had previously said passing school choice would be the legislature’s No. 1 priority in 2025 – although that conflicts with speaker Smith’s call for tax reform to top this year’s to-do list.
There also appears to be split thinking amongst the Republican majority regarding how to proceed. Some want to re-pass – or expand – the original bill based on the belief the new court will uphold it. Others want to create an alternate vehicle for providing academic scholarships.
Still others argue it’s time to approve full-blown universal school choice for all students.
Either way, eyes will be watching the General Assembly for some activity on this issue. Public patience with years of kicking the can down the road – while government-run schools continue doing less with more – seems to be rapidly evaporating. Which is why school choice is holding… for now.
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