FITSNews Political Stock Index – 11/18/2024

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The second administration of former/future U.S. president Donald Trump is rapidly taking shape… with picks for key staff and cabinet positions being announced from MAGA headquarters in Mar-a-Lago almost daily.

As the new regime prepares to assume the reins of power in Washington D.C., it’s time to start recalibrating the political wisdom which held sway during the historic 2024 election. The old math is simply no longer relevant – rendered obsolete not just by the surprising breadth of Trump’s victory, but also by the frenetic pace at which he is clearly moving to remake the federal government in the image of his mandate.

What will MAGA 2.0 look like?

In this fast-changing political environment, maintaining an updated political stock portfolio is essential… which is where FITSNews Political Stock Index comes in.

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For more than a year, our founding editor Will Folks and political columnist Mark Powell have been monitoring the unprecedented insanity of the 2024 election cycle… and now, its fallout. As noted, each installment of our index assesses how our subjects fared over the previous week. Positive reports don’t reflect endorsements, and negative ones aren’t (necessarily) indicative of vendettas.

We just call ‘em like we see ‘em…

Got a hot “stock tip” for our consideration? Email Will (here) and/or Mark (here). Just be sure to include “Palmetto Political Stock Index” in the subject line.

Where should you invest your political capital? To the index…

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THE TRUMP CABINET

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STOCK: HOLDING

Trump 2.0 is rapidly taking shape. Never before in American history has a president-elect named so many nominees for so many high-profile positions so soon after Election Day.

A number of the president-elect’s selections have been universally praised. For example, Susie Wiles – the hard-nosed, pragmatic and publicity-averse driving force behind Trump’s victorious campaign – is expected to bring a strong dose of discipline to the second Trump White House as chief of staff (she’ll also be the first woman to occupy this powerful position). Also, unlike Kamala Harris, former ICE director Tom Homan is expected to get tough on illegal immigration as ‘Border Czar.’ No-nonsense Stephen Miller as head White House policy honcho and U.S. senator Marco Rubio as secretary of state were also both widely praised picks.

Other selections have been less orthodox. Selecting South Dakota governor Kristi Noem to head Homeland Security prompted some head-scratching, as did tapping Fox News’ host Pete Hegseth for secretary of defense. (True, he’s a Minnesota National Guard major who served in the Iraq War and Afghanistan and received the Bronze Star, but does that really qualify him to head a sprawling department with a 2-million-person payroll?)

By far Trump’s most controversial choice, though, was that of diehard MAGA congressman Matt Gaetz as his attorney general. Shortly thereafter, Gaetz’s resignation from the House was made public – which was followed by word that the House ethics committee could soon release its report on a host of allegations against the 42-year-old Floridian.

How will the Gaetz saga play out? That depends on whether he’s Trump’s true choice for this post – or a sacrificial lamb destined to wind up as a negotiating tool, not the nation’s top prosecutor.

Trump has also tapped a pair of former Democratic presidential contenders to serve key positions in his administration – Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. in the role of health czar and Tulsi Gabbard as director of national intelligence.

All these designees share one common denominator: They have demonstrated a strong bond of loyalty to Trump. He has clearly learned a valuable lesson from his first term in office – which saw his objectives frequently undermined by those within his own administration who had no devotion to him. Today, personal loyalty is the new coin of the realm.

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CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP

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STOCK: HOLDING

“Meet the new boss … same as the old boss,” Roger Daltrey famously crooned in The Who’s ‘We Won’t Get Fooled Again.’ When the 119th congress is gaveled into session on January 3, 2025, the GOP leadership in both chambers will look a lot like it did in the last congress. 

First, House Republicans kept Mike Johnson as their leader. It’s expected he’ll remain as speaker when that vote is held in six weeks’ time, but he would still have the same precariously thin majority he had last time around. With Democrats’ Hakeem Jeffries nipping at his heels, a notoriously divided and undisciplined GOP caucus and an infamously impatient president demanding legislative victories, Johnson could soon find himself wishing he’d been ousted.

Senate Republicans also huddled last week. When they emerged from their closed-door balloting, John Thune of South Dakota had been anointed head honcho of the new majority party in that chamber. He will replace 82-year-old Mitch McConnell, the longest-serving leader in history.

While the face and voice will be different, Thune is expected to mark a continuation of the same establishment policies McConnell espoused. In selecting Thune, Republicans passed over Florida’s Rick Scott – MAGA’s favorite for the job – and Texan John Cornyn, who had offered himself as a bridge between the two camps.

Can a new Republican Senate and an unruly Republican House deliver on Trump’s agenda? Or will Democrats be able to seize on intra-party GOP fissures to block it?

MAGA’s success or failure will depend on the answer to that question…

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GOVERNMENT EFFICIENCY

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STOCK: RISING

Some people believe “Washington” is synonymous with “waste” – and a debt clock which just eclipsed $36 trillion certainly lends credence to that belief. So, Trump is setting out to do something about it.

As he promised on the campaign trail, the president-elect is creating something he calls the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) which, in his words, will “slash excess regulations, cut wasteful expenditures, and restructure federal agencies.” And instead of relying on washed up politicians with no will to fight the system, he’s banking on two big guns to head up the effort: Elon Musk, the world’s richest man, and self-made billionaire Vivek Ramaswamy. They’re even talking to former congressman Ron Paul, the ideological godfather of cutting government waste.

Several important questions surround the undertaking. First, since only congress can create an actual department, is DOGE just a glorified blue-ribbon panel or commission? And while government can certainly be streamlined, spending is a tougher beast to tame. Americans love to bemoan wasteful federal spending, but the two biggest drivers of red ink are actually entitlement programs (Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, Food Stamps, Welfare, Unemployment Insurance, and the like) – and escalating interest on the massive existing debt.

Not only has the Washington swamp showed no interest in taking on those twin drivers of soaring debt and deficits, neither has Trump.

Still, Washington’s fiscal house is so badly out of order any savings DOGE can produce would be both welcomed and cheered – and could give him some much-needed early momentum.

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REPUBLICAN ESTABLISHMENT

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STOCK: CRATERING

Elections have consequences, and they’re seldom more severe than when you wind up on the losing side of the ledger. Just ask South Carolina’s Nikki Haley and her fellow GOP warmonger, former secretary of state Mike Pompeo.

Before Trump announced who would be joining his administration, he made a point of letting us know who wouldn’t.

“I will not be inviting former ambassador Nikki Haley, or former secretary of state Mike Pompeo, to join the Trump Administration,” he posted on social media shortly after his victory.

Haley addressed the diss on her radio show.

“I had no interest in being in his cabinet,” she told listeners. “He knew that.”

The feeling, it seems, was mutual.

Setting aside America being deprived of Haley’s inspiring leadership, she and Pompeo being frozen on the sidelines for the coming four years raises an interesting question: What about all those #NeverTrump “Republicans” who publicly and gleefully jumped on Kamala Harris’ bandwagon?

An unusually large number of establishment Republicans made a show of supporting the other team in 2024. Foremost among them were the Cheneys, both dad Dick – a former vice president – and defeated congresswoman Liz (who actively campaigned at Harris’ side). Their numbers included former California governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, stalwart conservative columnist George F. Will, and more than 200 people who had worked for former presidents and presidential nominees George H.W., George W. Bush, John McCain and Mitt Romney.

Could a day of reckoning be at hand within the Republican Party?   

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PENNSYLVANIA AMISH

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STOCK: RISING

Did you ever think you’d see the day when Pennsylvania’s Amish and Plain People would determine the outcome of a presidential election? While that didn’t quite happen on November 5, it was very close. Here’s why.

It all started last January, when state health workers raided Amos Miller‘s dairy farm in picturesque Lancaster County. Many Amish were outraged, seeing it as government interference in their quiet lives. Though the brethren have traditionally sat on the sidelines during elections, they were now spurred to become active.

Scott Presler, a shrew GOP strategist, spotted a golden opportunity. His teams set up voter registration tables at places frequented by Amish patrons — such as farmer’s markets where they sell the produce they raise. Their message was simple: The government is waging war on your values, and you’ve got to get involved to stop it.  

The result: An unprecedented number of buggies were hitched outside polling places on Elections Day, and that gave Republicans tens of thousands of votes the party didn’t get in 2020. Given that Trump won Pennsylvania’s critical nineteen electoral votes by edging out Kamala Harris 50.5 to 48.6 percent (or roughly 130,000 ballots), the Amish support significantly helped him cross the finish line, which enabled his White House return.

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WANNA SOUND OFF?

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