S.C. Succession: Winners and Losers from the U.S. Senate Primary Election

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by MARK POWELL

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She went for it, and she got it. Darline Nordone Graham won the first-place showing that polls had predicted for her all along – but it was no cakewalk for our state’s interim junior senator.

Running in a statewide election is never an easy task; it’s all the more difficult when you’re mourning the loss of a close loved one. But that was made considerably easier by having the well-oiled Graham political organization backing her every step of the way.

President Donald Trump being solidly in her corner didn’t hurt, either.

Still, Nordone’s showing Tuesday was no tour de force. Despite the Graham family name and the many advantages that came with it, she didn’t even manage to eke out one-third of the vote. That’s hardly the kind of performance that makes opponents shake in their boots.

But with Nordone’s sea legs now under her, she’s charging into the two-week runoff campaign ready for a fight. And she has one extremely powerful ace up her sleeve that she could still play.

The Trump card…

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The president was deeply fond of her late brother as a personal friend and political ally. At the same time, he hates Ralph Norman with a passion. Could those powerful twin forces be enough to bring Trump to South Carolina for a big rally on the eve of the August 25 runoff election?

Polling results could give us the answer. Trump abhors sticking his neck out for losers. (Remember how he waffled on his support of Pamela Evette in the gubernatorial runoff, making a last-minute co-endorsement of eventual nominee Alan Wilson to cover his presidential derriere?)

A Trump trip here could reveal much about where this race stands a fortnight from now. You can bet Nordone’s people are already begging the White House for it.        

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RALPH NORMAN: WINNER

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Ralph Norman got that rarest of gifts in politics: a second chance. After a respectable third-place showing in the June 9, 2026 Republican gubernatorial primary – and a decisive endorsement in the runoff phase of that election – the Rock Hill developer scratched out “for governor” on his posters, replaced it with “for senator,” and picked up right where he’d left off.

Norman secured his second-place finish in this primary without having to expend much money from his campaign war chest – putting him in position to compete financially with Nordone’s special interest juggernaut in the two-week sprint that started today.

Now comes his most daunting task to date: unifying the fragmented right flank of the SCGOP and getting it to coalesce around his candidacy. Norman has little margin for error, as he’ll be going against a White House whose occupant makes no bones about despising him. That’s a tough hurdle to clear if he hopes to win a six-year trip to the northern end of Capitol Hill.

But it’s not an impossible hurdle, because by now it’s plainly evident Trump’s backing – while still potent – no longer carries the knockout punch it once delivered with the GOP base.

Norman may have finished in second place in the first round of voting, but there’s a compelling argument to be made that he’s the candidate to beat in the second round – which is likely to see a smaller, more conservative pool of voters.

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RUSSELL FRY: MIXED

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The primary for U.S. Senate may not have turned out the way he’d hoped, but Russell Fry was far from a “loser” on Tuesday evening. For one thing, he’s still got his U.S. House seat – which he is poised to reclaim comfortably in November.

While Fry failed to achieve a breakout from his coastal base of support, he nonetheless acquitted himself exceedingly well on the statewide stage – outperforming his polling and gaining invaluable elevated personal exposure. He also began assembling a grassroots network and donor base beyond his congressional district – which will be invaluable the next time he throws his hat in the ring.

Time is also on Fry’s side. Norman is 73; Nordone is 62.

Fry? He’s 41 – meaning he’s got several additional bites at the apple in the days to come.

Fry’s first big test? Whether to issue an endorsement in the runoff election scheduled for August 25, 2026. Given his showing on the first ballot, Fry’s backing could prove decisive to the finalist for this seat who receives it – but it could also backfire in the event he chooses poorly.

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MARK LYNCH: LOSER

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You can’t help but feel sorry for the appliance store owner from the South Carolina Upstate. Mark Lynch was willing to do what all the other Palmetto State conservatives were unwilling to do: run against the political Goliath that was Lindsey Graham.

But as this news outlet repeatedly observed, much of the 28.89% of the vote he snagged against Graham on June 9, 2026 wasn’t so much pro-Lynch as it was anti-Graham. When those voters had other alternatives in Tuesday’s primary, they deserted him in droves – leaving him with a mere 6% of the primary electorate.

Lynch was by far the most right-leaning of the candidates in Tuesday’s election, and his voters are among the most motivated to turn out again on August 25.

With his endorsement of Norman now official, will his supporters follow suit? Or simply not show up?

The answer to that question could prove decisive in the next round of voting…

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MARK SANFORD: BIG LOSER

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Former South Carolina governor Mark Sanford tried to recapture the old magic from his many prior victorious elections – but Palmetto State voters no longer seem to be “smelling what he’s stepping in,” to borrow the old expression.

Or maybe in his case they recognized the smell all too well…

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?#SCSuccession

22 years later and @MarkSanford still hasn’t learned to clean up his messes.

There really is no education in the second snort of a media hog… pic.twitter.com/wgzZ6VG71u

— FITSNews (@fitsnews) August 6, 2026

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Despite late polling data showing him in the mix for a potential spot in the runoff, Sanford failed to clear the 15% threshold en route to a disappointing fourth-place finish – which was pretty much on brand for a campaign that ran on little more than recycled gimmickry.

“Sanford got a godsend when he won back his old U.S. House seat in 2013,” one national strategist told us, referring to his bounce back from an infamous political implosion. “But he squandered it. And there are no third acts in politics. His repeated unsuccessful attempts at seeking office ever since then were nothing but pathetic wastes of time and money. Tuesday’s primary proved the Fat Lady has finally sung for Mark Sanford.”

’Nuff said.

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 SCGOP: WINNER

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In a cycle that has many Republican operatives around the country deeply worried about an “enthusiasm gap” in the upcoming midterm elections, the South Carolina GOP received a big burst of reassurance Tuesday.

More than 325,000 Republicans voted on Tuesday (or in the early voting that preceded the election). That not only eclipsed many private predictions of much lower turnout, but also surpassed the 318,796 votes cast in the June 23 gubernatorial runoff.

Trump fatigue and lingering concerns over affordability continue to be a double whammy that Democrats are counting on to win back Congress this fall. That may work elsewhere, but if Tuesday’s primary is an indication of GOP participation, Democrats will face a tough sell in South Carolina.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR…

J. Mark Powell is an award-winning former TV journalist, government communications veteran, and a political consultant. He is also an author and an avid Civil War enthusiast. Got a tip or a story idea for Mark? Email him at mark@fitsnews.com.

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