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by WILL FOLKS
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As newly named Tropical Storm Cristobal drifts harmlessly east in the mid-Atlantic, forecasters are monitoring a pair of brewing waves headed from Africa toward the Caribbean Sea.
One of the waves, dubbed Invest 92L, has been described as an area of “showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave” – one located approximately 950 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.
“Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development during the next couple of days, and a tropical depression will likely form while the system moves westward to west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic,” forecasters warned.
Invest 92L has an 80% chance of developing into a tropical system within the next 48 hours, according to analysts at the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami, Florida.
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The other wave, dubbed “disturbance 2,” is located “several hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands” where it is currently “producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.”
“Environmental conditions are forecast to be generally conducive for some development of this system during the next several days while it moves westward or west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic,” NHC added.
While this second wave has only a 40% chance of developing into a tropical system over the coming week, it is the “wave to watch” according to forecasters.
Here’s some discussion about the system from meteorologist Tomer Burg:
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Turns out, the system currently tagged as invest 92L by NHC with a 70% probability of development is actually *not* the system DeepMind is highlighting for long-track development.
— Tomer Burg (@burgwx) August 11, 2026
That is a separate system DeepMind develops behind 92L, which NHC has not tagged as of this time. pic.twitter.com/YXhgUmIuZx
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It’s been a quiet season so far in the Atlantic, which is line with previous predictions of “below normal” activity.
Back in May, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicted between eight (8) and fourteen (14) named storms during the current season – which began on June 1, 2026 and runs through November 30, 2026.
Of those storms, 3-6 were expected to strengthen into hurricanes, while only 1-3 were forecast to reach major hurricane status – which is defined as a storm with maximum sustained winds of at least 111 miles per hour or stronger.
Last week, NOAA further scaled back its forecast to include between seven (7) and thirteen (13) named storms, of which 2-6 were expected to become hurricanes and 0-2 were projected to become major storms.
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The latest NOAA projection falls below the modern seasonal average of roughly fourteen named storms (14), seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes. NOAA now says there is 75% chance the season finishes below normal, with forecasters citing the ongoing influence of an El Niño pattern that developed in the Pacific Ocean in June.
El Niño refers to the periodic warming of the central and eastern equatorial regions of the Pacific Ocean – while La Niña refers to the cooling of the Pacific that takes place in its aftermath.
During El Niño years, the formation of hurricanes in the Atlantic is less likely due to increased vertical wind shear – or changes in wind speed and direction between 5,000 and 35,000 feet. Vertical wind shear breaks apart developing hurricanes – and can often stop them from forming altogether. Conversely, during La Niña years hurricane formation – and rapid intensification of storms – is much more likely due to reduced vertical wind shear. Essentially, calmer conditions make it easier for storms to form – and to quickly gain strength.
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Last year’s hurricane season was supposed to be “supercharged” due to a lingering LaNiña and warm Atlantic waters – but those forecasts failed to materialize.
No hurricanes made landfall anywhere in the United States in 2025, marking the first time in more than a decade the American mainland was spared a direct impact. Damage associated with 2025’s storms was also dramatically lower – clocking in at $10.55 billion. Most of that was attributable to Hurricane Melissa, which careened into Jamaica with maximum sustained winds of 185 miles per hour. Melissa tied 2019’s Hurricane Dorian as the strongest system ever to come ashore in the Atlantic basin. At landfall, Melissa’s central pressure was just 892 millibars, tying her with the 1936 Labor Day hurricane for the lowest central pressure ever recorded in a landfalling storm.
South Carolina has avoided a direct landfall from a major hurricane for the past 26 years – with the last category three system to impact our coastline being 1989’s Hurricane Hugo.
Keep it tuned to FITSNews as we closely track the tropics…
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR…
Will Folks is the founding editor of the news outlet you are currently reading. Prior to founding FITSNews, he served as press secretary to the governor of South Carolina. He lives in the Midlands region of the state with his wife and eight children.
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