|
Getting your Trinity Audio player ready...
|
by WILL FOLKS
***
Last year, this media outlet called out the American meteorological establishment for its inaccurate doom and gloom projections ahead of the 2025 hurricane season.
“The more frequently forecasters don sackcloth and ashes and beat their breasts – only to see their calamitous clarion calls fail to come to fruition – the less seriously the public will take their pronouncements moving forward,” I noted at the time. “Which is where the real danger lies.”
The industry’s apocalyptic pronouncements failed to materialize last year, with the Atlantic basin producing just thirteen (13) named storms – including five (5) hurricanes and four (4) major hurricanes. That output barely scraped the low end of the alarmist forecasts. The American mainland was also thankfully spared any direct hurricane impacts in 2025 – with Tropical Storm Chantal the only system to come ashore in the United States last year.
If last season was a big miss, the 2026 season has been an unprecedented whiff – even after forecasters called for “below normal” tropical activity this year. As of this publication, the current season has produced just six (6) named storms – none of which have become hurricanes.
Every time it looked like things were heating up… nada.
***
On September 11, 2026, this season eclipsed the record for the latest date for a first hurricane – originally set in 2002 by Hurricane Gustav and matched eleven years later by Hurricane Humberto. Of course that’s the record for the satellite era – which began in 1966. This week, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) confirmed you have to go all the way back to 1914 to find a year featuring no hurricane formation as of the current date (September 23, 2026).
According to meteorologist Ed Piotrowski of WPDE TV-15 (ABC – Florence/Myrtle Beach, S.C.), the accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of the current season is an anemic 6.3 – less than half the previous recorded low for this point in the season.
“ACE is one way meteorologists measure a hurricane season’s overall activity,” Piotrowski noted. “It accounts for both the strength of tropical storms and hurricanes and how long they last. Stronger, longer-lived storms pile up ACE much faster. For some perspective, compare this year’s 6.3 to 2004, when ACE had already soared to 202.2 by September 23. That’s an incredible difference.”
What’s keeping tropical development under wraps?
If you’ve followed FITSNews for any period of time, you know we have consistently tracked water temperature data in the Pacific Ocean, notably the interplay of El Niño and La Niña. For those of you unhip to these patterns, El Niño refers to the periodic warming of the central and eastern equatorial regions of the Pacific Ocean – while La Niña refers to the cooling of the Pacific that takes place in its aftermath.
***
BREAKING: Hurricane Hunters just measured an almost unbelievable 889 mb pressure inside Hurricane Polo.
— Max Velocity (@MaxVelocityWX) September 22, 2026
If that reading is confirmed, Polo would become the second strongest hurricane ever recorded in the eastern Pacific, behind only Hurricane Patricia in 2015.
What makes this… pic.twitter.com/ZaMRAjMMRa
***
During El Niño years, the formation of hurricanes in the Atlantic is less likely due to increased vertical wind shear – or changes in wind speed and direction between 5,000 and 35,000 feet. Vertical wind shear breaks apart developing hurricanes – and can often stop them from forming altogether. Conversely, during La Niña years hurricane formation – and rapid intensification of storms – is much more likely due to reduced vertical wind shear. Essentially, calmer conditions make it easier for storms to form – and to quickly gain strength.
There’s an intensity factor to consider too. The stronger the El Niño pattern generally the less likely hurricanes are to form and intensify – and the current El Niño pattern, projected to last through early 2027, is among the strongest ever recorded.
According to the most recent comprehensive hurricane survey (.pdf) from the S.C. Department of Natural Resources (SCDNR), South Carolina has seen 45 tropical cyclones make landfall along its coastline since 1851 – the most recent being Chantal. Of those systems, only four (4) made landfall as major hurricanes: the 1893 Sea Islands Hurricane, Hurricane Hazel in 1954, Hurricane Gracie in 1959, and Hurricane Hugo in 1989. No category five hurricanes have ever hit the Palmetto State’s 187-mile coastline.
Hurricane season runs each year from June 1 to November 30 each year. The climatological peak of the season is September 10.
***
ABOUT THE AUTHOR…
Will Folks is the founding editor of the news outlet you are currently reading. Prior to founding FITSNews, he served as press secretary to the governor of South Carolina. He lives in the Midlands region of the state with his wife and eight children.
***
SOUND OFF…
Got something you’d like to say in response to one of our articles? Or an issue you’d like to address proactively? We have an open microphone policy! Submit your letter to the editor (or guest column) via email HERE. Got a tip for a story? CLICK HERE. Got a technical question or a glitch to report? CLICK HERE.
