Israel-Iran War: Trump’s Two-Week Pause

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Just when it appeared as though the United States was poised to become directly involved in the Israel-Iran war, Washington is pulling back. For now, anyway.

Earlier this week, multiple national news outlets were reporting that president Donald Trump had approved a plan for bombing targets inside Iran. All the big brass was waiting for was the order to begin the attacks. But by Thursday afternoon, it appeared they may be in for a bit of a wait.

The White House now says Trump will decide “within two weeks” whether to launch the military strike. 

With the delay, it is apparent that despite his tough talk earlier in the week about Iran’s “unconditional surrender,” Trump is leaving the door open to the possibility of a negotiated settlement.

As one Republican political strategist in Washington said, “to paraphrase John Lennon’s old Vietnam War protest song, ‘all we are saying is give peace a chance.’”

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While the delay buys Washington time to cut a deal, it also carries with it serious risks. For example, Iran has been burning through its ballistic missile supply at a furious pace. Likewise, Israel is rapidly running through its stash of interceptor missiles. Estimates vary on just how many weapons each side has remaining in its arsenal.

What will happen when one country runs out first?

Trump reportedly asked pointed questions earlier this week about the U.S.’s much-vaunted 30,000-pound GBU-57 “bunker buster” bomb that’s delivered by the Air Force’s B-2 stealth bomber. He demanded to know how reliable it was; how many strikes with it would require; and perhaps most important of all, what would happen if they don’t accomplish their primary task?

That last point is especially critical, given that the bulk of Iran’s serious nuclear work is believed to be carried out in facilities located deep underground. Failing to destroy them would defeat the purpose of direct U.S. involvement in the first place.

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There are also political considerations on the home front. Sharp fissure lines run through all partisan camps. There is deep division within the GOP in general – and MAGA in particular – over whether Washington should wade into the fighting. Once a strident opponent of “forever wars,” the newly neocon-leaning Trump has been raging at his erstwhile ally Tucker Carlson after the latter made his vehement opposition to U.S. involvement known.

“The real divide isn’t between people who support Israel and people who support Iran or the Palestinians,” Carlson wrote on X as the war began. “The real divide is between those who casually encourage violence, and those who seek to prevent it — between warmongers and peacemakers. Who are the warmongers? They would include anyone who’s calling Donald Trump today to demand air strikes and other direct US military involvement in a war with Iran. On that list: Sean Hannity, Mark Levin, Rupert Murdoch, Ike Perlmutter and Miriam Adelson. At some point they will all have to answer for this, but you should know their names now.”

“I don’t know what Tucker Carlson is saying,” Trump fired back, referring to Carlson as “kooky.”

Similarly, there is growing division in the Democrat camp between many traditional liberals – who have long supported Israel – and younger, more militant progressives who are making their blatant disdain for the Jewish state more obvious every day.

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RELATED | WILL AMERICA GET DRAGGED INTO ISRAEL-IRAN WAR?

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Topping the laundry list of Trump’s doubts is this: Should the U.S. join the fighting, what would be the end game? Certainly, Trump is hoping to avoid a situation similar to America’s war in Afghanistan. That conflict started in October 2001 in the immediate aftermath of the September 11 terror attacks on U.S. soil. American involvement continued until President Joe Biden’s abrupt, calamitous withdrawal in August 2021. Over the intervening two decades, more than 3,500 coalition military personnel (including 2,400 Americans) were killed, and a king’s ransom was spent propping up the democratically elected Kabul regime. Trump clearly has a nightmarish vision of history repeating itself this time around and is hoping against hope to avoid it.

And so the world waits, and wonders, and holds its breath… eager to see what comes next (including the possibility of a ‘false flag’ operation which would lure the United States into the fray).

Perhaps, as the John Lennon song mentioned earlier, peace may finally get its chance. However, it is worth noting it wasn’t peace songs or demonstrations that brought North Vietnam to the negotiating table at the Paris Peace Talks, but the U.S. bombing of Hanoi and the mining of the North’s harbors.

That’s another case of déjà vu all over again that Trump seems eager to avoid.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR…

J. Mark Powell is an award-winning former TV journalist, government communications veteran, and a political consultant. He is also an author and an avid Civil War enthusiast. Got a tip or a story idea for Mark? Email him at mark@fitsnews.com.

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