South Carolina Governor’s Race: John Warren Weighs His Options

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by MARK POWELL

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Somewhere in Greenville, South Carolina, various pros and cons are being contemplated ahead of an important decision. A lot is riding on the choice, too – because when Upstate multimillionaire John Warren makes up his mind, what he ends up doing will have a big impact on the 2026 Palmetto State governor’s race.

Whether he jumps in or stays out… Warren’s decision will help define the upcoming contest.

In the careful calculus that goes into crafting a winning strategy for statewide office, Warren factors prominently in a host of scenarios. Should he toss his hat into the ring, he has the potential to be a formidable challenger. Should he choose to sit out this cycle, his backing could prove essential in helping another candidate make it across the finish line. And should he go head-to-head with a fellow hardline conservative, all bets are off.

No wonder so many GOP eyes are gazing intently toward the Upstate… waiting to see how Warren makes up his mind.

The anticipation surrounding Warren’s deliberations represents a stark change from his first foray into politics seven years ago. The Marine combat veteran wasn’t widely known beyond his hometown when he took on incumbent governor Henry McMaster and a slew of other competitors in 2018. He’d been quietly exploring the possibility for nearly a year, and his announcement on February 11 that year was considered late to join a contest where his opponents were months ahead of him in organization and getting their names out. 

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Yet despite those dual drawbacks, Warren spent the next sixteen weeks aggressively stumping in every corner of the Palmetto State with a gusto befitting a retired Marine captain. And in a rare exception to the norm for a candidate with personal wealth, he spent more than $3 million of his own money on his campaign. 

When the smoke had cleared on primary election night, Warren had bested three other GOP opponents and forced the sitting governor into a runoff.  Two weeks later, though, McMaster secured the Republican nomination – thanks in large part to a late endorsement from president Donald Trump, who flew to Columbia and personally dragged him across the finish line.

To most observers, it was an impressive debut for a first-time candidate. But that’s now how Warren saw it.

“When he lost in 2018, it was devastating for him,” a source close to the businessman-turned-candidate recalled. “He really thought he was going to win, and it was tough on him. I mean, it personally took a huge toll on him when he lost.”

Warren has had more than half a decade to reflect on the lessons he learned during his unsuccessful bid for office. During that time he has co-authored a book (Lead Like A Marine), started a new business and launched a political action committee, South Carolina’s Conservative Future. Warren’s PAC supports staunchly conservative legislative candidates who share his limited government, low tax vision. And, during its short existence, it has run up an impressive string of victories.

Not only has that helped boost Warren’s credibility – it has put plenty of political IOUs in his back pocket.

“It’s undeniable there’s going to be some sort of affinity from these legislators whom he’s helped,” a South Carolina strategist not associated with any campaign told FITSNews. “I definitely think it’s at play. You know, it’s a powerful combination to potentially have endorsements from legislators in both the House and Senate across the state. But throw in the fact that these are usually the most conservative of the bunch. That’s a combination he didn’t have when he ran in 2018. If he decides in 2026 to run for something, it would be pretty powerful.”

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Which brings us back to the question at hand: What will Warren do next? Will he run for governor again as some expect?

“The way John operates is he is not going to run unless he thinks he can win,” Warren’s confidant told us. “John’s really smart, and he didn’t like it when he lost in 2018. He really thought he was going to win, and he’s not going to go through that again unless he thinks he can win. So, he’s trying to figure it out and see who else gets in before he makes a decision.” 

That’s largely the same situation another potential candidate finds himself in regarding 2026. As FITSNews recently reported, fifth district U.S. congressman Ralph Norman is said to be mulling over a gubernatorial bid of his own. Should he and Warren both run, it could set them on a collision course.

Early presumptive frontrunners in the race include Norman, veteran S.C. attorney general Alan Wilson, first district U.S. congresswoman Nancy Mace and lieutenant governor Pamela Evette.

“Warren and Norman are two guys who occupy the same lane,” one veteran Palmetto politico observed. “They each appeal to the GOP’s right flank, the folks who are serious about cutting spending,  shrinking government, and expanding personal freedom. But if Warren and Norman wind up duking it out with one another, and if it turns into a nasty slugfest, that would carry the possibility of creating a path for a Nancy Mace or an Alan Wilson to overtake them.”

Norman and Warren are both said to be well aware of this dynamic, and multiple sources confirm there have been casual back-channel communications between the two of them – albeit without a clear plan of action.

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If Warren decides to try again for the governor’s office, funding shouldn’t be an impediment. His personal wealth is said to have increased since 2018, and he has displayed an unusual willingness to open his checkbook and largely self-fund an expensive race.

Yet one disadvantage from last time remains. Warren is, to put it charitably, “charisma-challenged.” While few candidates will out-work him, he is not known for illuminating rooms with his personal magnetism. In fact, a running joke among his closest supporters in 2018 was that his Apple watch had to “remind him to smile.”

However, the aforementioned Palmetto strategist believes that what some see as a liability is actually an advantage in disguise. 

“While John may not be as traditional in his communication as we’re used to in southern politics, he is a breath of fresh air to a lot of people,” he said. “He cuts through the noise. He may not make you die laughing, or he may not give you warm and fuzzy feelings, but he’s going to deliver a direct message. And I think most people would walk away from it thinking, ‘I trust that man to protect my daughter. I trust that man to protect my kids.’ John has his own unique ability to directly cut to the core of what people want to hear and get the fluff out of the way.”

No one we spoke with had a sense of when Warren might decide what he’ll do in 2026. He doesn’t seem to be in any particular hurry to make his decision, either. And why would he rush? With residual name ID from one statewide race, IOUs from conservative candidates across South Carolina, a large slate of likely endorsements from legislators, a personal fortune that continues to grow and a Republican gubernatorial field that lacks a clear frontrunner… he doesn’t need to be in a hurry.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR…

J. Mark Powell is an award-winning former TV journalist, government communications veteran, and a political consultant. He is also an author and an avid Civil War enthusiast. Got a tip or a story idea for Mark? Email him at mark@fitsnews.com.

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