FITSNews Political Stock Index: Special Edition

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We’re excited to debut a new FITSNews Political Stock Index feature: the 2028 Futures Forecast. Starting today, we’ll be tracking the rising (and falling) fortunes of potential presidential contenders in both parties.

Hold up… didn’t we just finish a presidential election?

Isn’t it way too early to start thinking about the next race?

To everyday Americans – especially those unimpressed by their choices in recent election cycles – the answer to that question is an enthusiastic and unequivocal “yes.” But political insiders know the real answer to that question is “never“- especially not when it comes to South Carolina.

The Palmetto State is home to the first-in-the-nation Democratic presidential primary and the first-in-the-South GOP primary, making it a critically important test for all would-be frontrunners. Political strategists in both camps have already begun drawing up their post-Trump battle plans – and are discreetly courting South Carolina operatives to help implement them.

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That’s why it’s worth tracking how our ‘Futures Forecast’ is shaping up for the various men and women who would be president.   

We’ll start today with the Republicans. Two weeks from today, we’ll have our first ‘Futures Forecast’ on the Democrats. 

Since the field will likely be wide open on both sides (this is the first election since 2016 not featuring an incumbent president on the ballot), each prospective candidate will receive a “holding” rating for now.

Where they go from here is entirely up to them… and the hand of fate.

Where should you invest your presidential political capital? To the forecast…

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JD VANCE

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STOCK: HOLDING

Arguably, JD Vance is the guy to beat at this embryonic stage of the game. As vice president, he’s positioned to inherit the MAGA mantle when Donald Trump concludes his term. Whether that will prove a blessing or a curse is too early to tell. If the economy is going great guns and folks are flush with cash, Vance will be tough to beat. If Trump’s approval ratings are where Joe Biden’s were last summer, well, it’s back to Ohio for this former senator.

So far, Vance is chiefly seen as Trump’s obedient yes-man – which is the proper role of any vice president. The rule for veeps is simple: have a heartbeat.

Vance’s two high-profile moments in the spotlight have yielded mixed results. His recent trip to Greenland – his first since taking office – was a public relations fiasco. However, his Oval Office meeting with visiting Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy – in which he took an aggressive tone against the controversial European leader – was cheered by many conservatives. 

No doubt troubling to the vice president right now is his dismal polling. Vance’s job approval rating on RealClearPolitics’ aggregate index shows him underwater, with 41.8% approving compared to 46.8% who disapprove.

Still, if Trump’s second presidency is seen as a triumph by the Republican base, no one will be in a better position to capitalize than Vance. If not, then his chances are slim to none.

As Trump goes, Vance goes… for better or worse.

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NIKKI HALEY

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STOCK: HOLDING

The former South Carolina governor-turned-U.N. ambassador-turned presidential candidate-turned talk radio show host/corporate board shill is caught between the proverbial rock and a hard place.

After being thoroughly drubbed in the 2024 primaries, she refuses to make nice with MAGA. Though she grudgingly endorsed Trump—through clenched teeth—she lets the Never Trump crowd know through nods and winks that her heart is with them. And they return the feeling in kind.

The problem is, the GOP of today isn’t their party any more. The descendants of the old Rockefeller-Bush country club moderate wing are now on the Endangered Species List. By continuing to appeal to them, Nikki Haley has severely limited her options.

She is, for all practical purposes, a woman without a party – but that likely won’t preclude her from making a second run in 2028.

Frankly, the only reason Haley’s stock is rated as “holding” on our forecast is because it’s a courtesy we’re extending to all candidates at the outset. “Floating at the top of the tank” is a more accurate description.       

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TIM SCOTT

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STOCK: HOLDING

What a difference a year makes. Exactly 52 weeks ago, the talk in Palmetto political circles was the state’s junior senator was bored with the Beltway and aching to come back home… possibly to run for governor in 2026. 

That was then… Tim Scott seems to have become reinfected with Potomac Fever and is downright dizzyingly happy with being in Washington again. And why shouldn’t he be? As chairman of the powerful National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), it’s his job to recruit attractive candidates and help raise money for them to win. Scott is also the leader of the influential Senate banking committee – a position which opens fundraising doors like few others in Washington, D.C.

Scott wasn’t exactly the most effective presidential candidate his last go-round, with Trump famously pointing out that the socially conservative South Carolinian advocated more effectively for him than he did for himself.

Can Scott catch fire if he runs in 2028?

For the moment, maintaining and expanding the GOP majority in the Senate is his No. 1 priority. Beyond that, it’s hard to tell. But this much is certain: he’s clearly having a blast these days at the helm of the NRSC.      

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KATIE BRITT

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STOCK: HOLDING

At 43, the junior U.S. senator from Enterprise, Alabama is the youngest Republican woman elected to the chamber and the second-youngest woman ever to join the world’s “greatest” deliberative body.

Katie Britt made her mark a year ago delivering the GOP response to Biden’s State of the Union address – which drew mixed reviews. A loyal MAGA acolyte since she announced her bid for the Senate in 2021, Britt is the antithesis of Haley. The former head of the Business Council of Alabama, she has been dubbed by Trump as a “fearless America First warrior.”

But Britt has several handicaps that could hurt her viability beyond a primary election. For instance, she was recently rated the country’s least bipartisan senator by the Lugar Center. That might play well to the GOP base, but it raises questions about her ability to win votes beyond it.

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DOUG BURGUM

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STOCK: HOLDING

We get the guy has more money than Fort Knox has gold. We get that he was governor of North Dakota and now serves as secretary of the interior – one of the least sexy jobs in Washington. And we really, really get that he doesn’t want to return to Bismarck when the Trump administration is finished. (Would you?)

Doug Burgum is said to still suffer from “the presidential itch.” But if nobody voted for him in 2024, what’s to make him think they will in 2028?

His is another charity “holding” rating…

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TOM COTTON

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STOCK: HOLDING

Little things sometimes say a lot. The junior senator from Arkansas once gave an interview to Politico where he mentioned Ronald Reagan’s name 10 times in 20 minutes. That pretty much sums up the rocked ribbed conservative’s views. Never afraid to mix it up with Democrats, he’ll just as easily turn on fellow Republicans when he believes they’re in the wrong. While an independent streak is admirable, it hardly wins the kind of friends who can be helpful in a hotly contested presidential primary.

Viewed as being in line for a top job in the second Trump White House (such as defense secretary), Tom Cotton politely but firmly told Mar-a-Lago, “thanks, but no thanks,” in early December, suggesting his eyes are fixed on a bigger prize.  

Coldly calculating, Cotton keeps his cards close to his vest. At the moment, he’s focused on being reelected to his Senate seat next year. After that, we’ll see. 

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TED CRUZ

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STOCK: HOLDING

The Texas conservative firebrand ran for president once before in 2016, survived a very close call with Democrat Beto O’Rourke in his reelection two years later, and had a somewhat smoother but still contentious reelection bid for a third term last year.

Ted Cruz clearly wants another shot at the brass ring (this time without the name “Trump” appearing on the ballot with him). Once the darling of the GOP’s right flank, he now shares those affections with several younger conservatives – meaning he no longer has that lane all to himself.

Oh, and there’s his beard this time around, too.    

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RON DeSANTIS

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STOCK: HOLDING

This is one of the most intriguing of all the possible candidacies in this field. 

Ron DeSantis emerged from his impressive 2022 reelection as Florida’s governor as a new political powerhouse. Suddenly, it looked like there was a contender who could successfully take on Trump in the 2024 GOP primaries.

Except, he didn’t. At least not at first. Perhaps too conscientiously, DeSantis delayed even announcing his candidacy well into 2023 as he tended to his day job in Tallahassee. That gave Trump World a strategic opportunity to define him—something no candidate should ever allow his opponent to do. By the time he got serious about launching his presidential campaign, it was too late. By then, the Biden administration’s efforts to convict Trump in multiple criminal cases was well underway. That cemented the GOP base to the former president – and DeSantis never had a chance from then on.

Now, heading into the homestretch of his final term as governor, a highly unusual and very nasty feud between DeSantis and Florida Republicans is becoming public. Just last week, the Republican-controlled state House sent letters to six state agencies as it investigates DeSantis’ spending amid budget tensions.

Will DeSantis emerge to fight again another day? Or was he just another one-time flash in the pan?        

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JOSH HAWLEY

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STOCK: HOLDING

The presidential taste has been in Josh Hawley‘s mouth since childhood, and he’s been running for the White House since sixth grade. In a city where naked ambition is paraded around like Lady Godiva, the audacity of Hawley’s brazenness is breathtaking.

Elected Missouri’s attorney general in 2016 (in part by running a TV commercial saying people were tired of politicians seeking office only to use it as a springboard to something higher), Hawley immediately did just that. Within months of starting that job, he announced he was running for the U.S. Senate, leaving Jefferson City mid-term.  

A widely circulated photo of Hawley raising a clenched fist in support of protestors during the January 6, 2021, U.S. Capitol riot damaged his standing with GOP moderates – but sent his support among MAGA-philes surging.

He cruised to a comfortable reelection last November.

Hawley is positioning himself as standing up to Big Tech. If he enters a field as crowded as 2028 is expected to be, he’ll need several way to differentiate himself from the competition.          

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KRISTI NOEM

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STOCK: HOLDING

Less than ninety days into her stint as homeland security secretary, this much is obvious: Kristi Noem is portraying herself as the Pistol Packin’ Mama of the Trump Administration. She loves photo ops on the frontlines of border security and other issues where she’s repeatedly photographed decked out in protective gear while holding high-powered weaponry.

What else would you expect from someone who bragged in her memoir about shooting an unruly family dog?

Noem is understandably over-the-moon thrilled to be out of South Dakota. And she’s making admirable progress in cleaning up the mess her predecessor, Alejandro Mayorkas, left for her.

Whether that translates into votes from Republican primary voters remains to be seen, but Haley – like Katie Britt – is another MAGA-backed candidate likely to crowd out any potential national comeback by Nikki Haley.

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VIVEK RAMASWAMY

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STOCK: HOLDING

The billionaire businessman with the agile mind and sharp tongue is shifting his focus from the District of Columbia to Columbus, Ohio. He’s planning to run for governor of Ohio next year—with Trump’s blessing. 

Vivek Ramaswamy also intends to be the same shoot-from-the-hip campaigner he was in 2024. As he told a local GOP audience last Thursday night, “God is real, there are two genders, and fossil fuels are a requirement for human prosperity.” If that doesn’t summarize his views in one soundbite, what does?

And what if Ramaswamy wows them in the Buckeye State and wins? Expect to find out in early 2027. Being governor of a key swing state would certainly boost his chances in ’28. If he’s not, it would be awfully hard convincing folks to pick him for president after losing his first two tries for office. 

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MARCO RUBIO

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STOCK: HOLDING

Secretary of state is one of those positions that not only has a nice, dignified ring to it but actually has some dignity to boot. Which is why its alums stooping to seek elective office after their tenure is over is rarer than angel sightings. They tend to toddle off to academia, think tanks, or – as Henry Kissinger did – shamelessly cash in with the uppermost reaches of the private sector.

That may be where Marco Rubio finds himself come 2028. After eight years in Florida’s House of Representatives (the last two as speaker), 14 years in the U.S. Senate, and a presidential run in 2016 (where he was bestowed the derisive nickname “Little Marco” by his current boss), Rubio may well feel his public service ticket has been punched, and it’s time to ride the gravy train.    

Still, there are a few murmurs in Republican circles of him making a play to succeed Trump. Hence his place on this list. But the smart money says, “Don’t bet on it.”

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SARAH HUCKABEE SANDERS

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STOCK: HOLDING

Winning reelection as Arkansas governor tops Sarah Huckabee Sanders’ to-do list at the moment – although it doesn’t seem as though any heavy lifting will be necessary to accomplish it. The daughter of former Arkansas governor, Baptist preacher, and TV personality Mike Huckabee scored solid reviews for her two-year stint as presidential press secretary during Trump I. And she’s been a popular governor, too.

However, things rarely go well when two presidential candidates hail from the same state. Especially when it’s a small state. (Just ask President Haley or President Scott how well that worked for them).

If Sanders and Tom Cotton both run in 2028, is there room for two cats in the same litter box?

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GLENN YOUNGKIN

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STOCK: HOLDING

Here’s the thing: National political correspondents working at the southern end of the New York-Washington News Axis are always mesmerized by politicians in neighboring Maryland and Virginia. And they were doubly mesmerized when Republican Glenn Youngkin pulled off an unexpected upset over a former governor to win the Old Dominion’s governor’s mansion in 2021.  

For one brief shining moment, Youngkin was the apple of the political world’s eye. After making the red vest his campaign gimmick, others quickly imitated him. When he rolled to victory on a wave of unhappiness with liberal thinking dominating public schools, other candidates hopped on that bandwagon.

Although the Left quickly (and predictably) demonized him as a reactionary troglodyte, he didn’t turn out to be the conservative firebrand the Right had hoped for. While not quite the cocktail-swilling country club variety Republican, he’s not far removed from it, either. And that’s hardly the stuff to set Republican primary voters’ pulses racing in this Age of Trump. 

True, Youngkin briefly flirted with entering the 2024 presidential race (fueled by moderates desperate to find an alternative to Trump) but eventually passed on it. Asked last week by The New York Times about a 2028 run, he was appropriately evasive, not even dropping the smallest of breadcrumbs.

That suggests this latest talk of him running is likely originating in newsrooms on the northern bank of the Potomac River – not GOP precinct meetings in key early-voting states.

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