The Key to Winning Tuesday’s GOP Senate Primary

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by MARK POWELL

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Politicians and pundits love referring to the ballot-casting citizenry by the generic, one-size-fits-all term “voters.” Yet any political strategist worth their salt will tell you all touchscreen pushers are not created equally. Partisan and ideological differences notwithstanding, “voters” are far from a monolithic bloc – and identifying and appealing to their myriad idiosyncrasies is what winning campaigns are all about.

Such divination is especially critical races like the 2026 special election for U.S. Senate in South Carolina – which is expected to be decided by a core group of staunch conservatives.

How many varieties of voters are there? Take a deep breath…

Elections involve partisan voters, independent voters, swing voters, undecided voters, ideological voters, moderate voters, single-issue voters, ticket-splitters, straight-ticket voters, protest voters, strategic voters, low-information voters, highly engaged voters, first-time voters, early/absentee/mail voters and day of election voters…

But Tuesday’s Republican Senate primary – and an expected runoff election between the two top finishers in that race scheduled for August 25, 2026 – will be determined by a different variety of ballot-caster altogether.

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THE MOTIVATION VOTER

Motivation is the key to winning this uniquely distinctive campaign – and several critical factors are at play in determining who is capable of generating it (and who isn’t).

First, there’s the nature of special elections themselves. With no other contests on the ballot other than the Republican U.S. Senate nomination, the stay-at-home voter feels far less of a sense of urgency. It’s literally one party, one office… and it’s at a time when few are paying attention to politics.

Quadrennial presidential elections, on the other hand, always see significant attention and long waiting lines at polling places. Statewide primaries, like the one just held on June 9, are also big draws. But in special elections, an inverse mathematic principle is at play.

Then there’s the aforementioned matter of timing. Mid-August is perhaps the second worst time of the entire year to hold a special election. The only worse time to schedule a vote? Between Christmas and New Year’s Day.

Palmetto State families are currently immersed in all manner of arduous back-to-school rituals – or they are trying to find time on the calendar for one last summer jaunt. Either way, their focus is just plain frazzled by August’s scorching heat – and the impending shifts of seasons and schedules.

Getting people to pay attention to politics – let alone show up at the polls – in such a climate is a challenge.

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Tuesday’s primary will come down to one simple word: motivation. Which voters in the various camps are most motivated to show up in sufficient numbers needed to win? And here’s where this primary gets really interesting.

This election is exposing an ever-deepening (and widening) fissure among South Carolina Republicans. While not a lot is being said about it right now, the impending runoff election on August 25 could have the potential to turn into a GOP civil war.

In South Carolina, if no candidate receives a majority of votes on the first ballot the top two vote-getters face off two weeks later in a head-to-head runoff. And that is where we could see a full-on bloodletting as GOP factionalism

On one side are the traditionalists. Political scientists label these voters as “mainstream” or “establishment” Republicans. Also called “country club” and “chamber of commerce” Republicans, they are the backbone of the SCGOP – and are typically loyal Fox News viewers.

On the other side are conservative activists. Political scientists label them “grassroots” or “right flank” Republicans. They’re frequent challengers to the SCGOP status quo (think S.C. Freedom Caucus) – voters who want to see strict adherence to conservative orthodoxy among GOP elected officials.

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These two sides hate each other with increasing hostility. Establishment Republicans dismiss their adversaries as “crazies.” Those status quo GOP voters are, in turn, branded “Republicans in Name Only” – or RINOs – by conservative activists, who view themselves as the rightful heirs of the MAGA movement as well as the true supporters of America First policies.

In the race to fill the seat vacated by Lindsey Graham’s passing, we are witnessing a direct, head-on collision of these competing camps. Indeed, Graham’s legacy itself is also on the line in Tuesday’s voting.

For 23 years, Graham was the darling of the GOP establishment. They viewed him as a pragmatist who was willing to work with anyone in either party in order to get things done. To them, he was a senator unafraid to stand up to president Donald Trump when they disagreed – yet willing to fight for his agenda on areas of common ground.

Consequently, the GOP establishment has coalesced around Graham’s successor – his younger sister, interim U.S. senator Darline Graham Nordone. They see her as the best candidate to carry on Graham’s legacy – and she has made that her basis for running.

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On the flip side of that coin, right flank voters viewed Graham as a “convenient conservative,” someone who was way too chummy with liberal Democrats on Capitol Hill – and way too left-of-center in his policy views.

One of their number now seeking the nomination, Congressman Ralph Norman, put it this way in a 2023 CNN interview: “after he gets elected, you know, for four years he’s basically liberal. In the last two years he’s conservative.”  

Nordone’s leading challengers — Norman, congressman Russell Fry, former S.C. governor Mark Sanford and businessman Mark Lynch — all vow to be reliably to the right of Graham, if elected.

Here’s where motivation comes into play. In Tuesday’s voting, will establishment Republicans looking to stay the course with Nordone be motivated to show up in sufficient numbers for her? Or will conservative activist Republicans eager for a new course be motivated to turn out in droves for one of her challengers?

If so, which one?

More importantly, what about August 25? Who will be the most motivated in a head-to-head battle presumably between Nordone and one of those challengers?

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RELATED | A ‘SPECIAL’ U.S. SENATE ELECTION

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It’s interesting to note that while Lindsey Graham’s political hold on his Senate seat was airtight, his personal popularity within the GOP base had waned in recent years. Consider how Graham was famously booed at a rally with Trump in Pickens on July 1, 2023, and again standing alongside Trump in Columbia on South Carolina presidential primary night on February 24, 2024.

This news outlet has observed earlier that a significant portion of Lynch’s June primary vote was not so much voting for Lynch as using it as an outlet to vote against the incumbent. With Graham out of the equation now, will that motivate more voters on the right to participate on Tuesday?

Conversely, will establishment Republicans feel strongly enough about keeping Team Graham together and carrying on with it in place to do likewise?

The results will reveal which campaign was able to successfully inspire these “motivation voters” to its advantage.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR…

J. Mark Powell is an award-winning former TV journalist, government communications veteran, and a political consultant. He is also an author and an avid Civil War enthusiast. Got a tip or a story idea for Mark? Email him at mark@fitsnews.com.

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