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by WILL FOLKS
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South Carolina attorney general Alan Wilson is hanging on to a narrow lead over lieutenant governor Pamela Evette in the battle for the Palmetto State’s Republican gubernatorial nomination, per the results of multiple surveys taken in the waning days of the election.
Evette received the coveted endorsement of U.S. president Donald Trump a week ago, but the bump she received from his support has been diluted by allegations of a corrupt bargain involving governor Henry McMaster and his son, Columbia attorney Henry McMaster Jr.
In addition to allegations of a quid pro quo – which we first reported several weeks ago – there have been other issues involving the governor’s son that have dragged down Evette. On Friday afternoon (June 5, 2026), McMaster Jr. took his name out of the running to become Evette’s lieutenant governor.
A poll released last weekend from the Atlanta, Georgia-based Trafalgar Group showed Evette opening up a significant lead over Wilson and the rest of the field – but recent surveys have showed the Palmetto State’s top prosecutor back in the lead.
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In fact, Wilson led Evette (albeit narrowly) in three separate surveys released this week… each taken well after the Trump endorsement had been made.
One survey released by the Tyson Group showed Wilson drawing the support of 18.8% of likely GOP primary voters – putting him narrowly ahead of Evette (18%), fifth district congressman Ralph Norman (15%), Lowcountry multi-millionaire Rom Reddy (11.2%) and first district congresswoman Nancy Mace (11.1%). That survey listed 24.9% of likely Republican voters as undecided.
Tyson Group surveyed 500 likely primary voters from June 1-3, 2026. Its margin of error was plus or minus 4.4%.
Meanwhile, a survey from Opinion Diagnostics had Wilson at 21.6% among likely GOP voters, Evette at 16.9%, Reddy at 16.3%, Norman at 12% and Mace at 11.9%. State senator Josh Kimbrell, who dropped out of the race two days ago and endorsed Wilson, was polling at 1.6% while 19.8% of respondents were undecided.
Opinion Diagnostics surveyed 675 likely primary voters from June 1-2, 2026. Its margin of error was plus or minus 3.8%.
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Starboard Communications, a Lexington, S.C.-based firm run by veteran strategist Walter Whetsell, also has a new poll out this week showing Wilson narrowly in the lead. According to that survey, Wilson was backed by 19.4% of respondents compared to 19.2% for Evette, 14.2% for Reddy, 13.2% for Norman and 11% for Mace. Starboard’s poll found 22.1% of respondents were undecided.
Starboard surveyed 500 likely voters from June 3-4, 2026. Its poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.38%.
Then there’s the newest Trafalgar survey. While this poll still showed Evette in the lead, her edge was slipping. The latest Trafalgar results had Evette at 23.5% among likely GOP voters (-2.8% from its previous poll). Wilson was at 18.5% (+1.6%) followed by Reddy at 17.9% (+0.7%), Norman at 14.6% (-1.5%) and Mace at 12.7% (-2.1%). Trafalgar’s survey featured 11.1% of likely voters indicating they were still undecided.
Trafalgar surveyed 982 likely voters from June 2-4, 2026. Its margin of error was plus or minus 2.9%.
One thing all of these surveys make abundantly clear is that no candidate in the field is remotely close to winning a majority of votes on the first ballot. That means the top two GOP vote-getters – which judging from the results of these surveys would be Wilson and Evette – would advance to a head-to-head runoff election on June 23, 2026.
As we often note, the GOP gubernatorial nomination in South Carolina has been the equivalent of punching one’s ticket to the governor’s mansion – as no Democrat has won a top-of-the-ticket statewide race since 1998. That streak is unlikely to break in 2026, although Democrats appear poised for a much better election cycle than many suspect.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR…
Will Folks is the founding editor of the news outlet you are currently reading. Prior to founding FITSNews, he served as press secretary to the governor of South Carolina. He lives in the Midlands region of the state with his wife and eight children.
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