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by MARK POWELL
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There are two time-honored traditions performed outside of the public eye in the days immediately following a political election: the crunching of numbers and the dissecting of individual campaigns.
On election night, it’s all about the game of addition – making sure your candidate or issue gets across whatever threshold is necessary to secure victory (or advance to the next round of the race). But when the voting is over, attention turns to conducting a postmortem of the outcome – and the decisions which impacted it.
Such deep dives help explain what worked – and didn’t work – with voters, where specific types of voters were most likely to be found and how the electorate itself is evolving.
In this case, another lingering issue is the future of a badly divided Republican party…
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With these questions in mind, Palmetto political operatives are busy poring over the returns from the U.S. Senate runoff on Tuesday – hoping to shed light not only on what happened at the polls, but also on upcoming Palmetto State elections (including the ‘First in the South’ presidential primary scheduled for February 2028).
To recap: interim U.S. senator Darline Graham Nordone clinched her party’s nomination for this seat. She’s now the Republican nominee in the November election – and is a heavy favorite to prevail in that contest considering Democrats haven’t won a statewide race in twenty years.
When all the votes were counted, unofficial results showed Nordone receiving 193,486 votes (or 52.45% of all ballots cast) compared to 175,412 votes (47.55%) for congressman Ralph Norman. That’s a margin of 18,074 votes – or 4.9%.
Nordone carried 34 counties compared to 12 that went for Norman. It’s not just the number of counties Norman won but where they’re located that’s now attracting attention. All 12 are located in the Upstate region in the northwestern part of the state. Nordone carried virtually everywhere else. And that’s where the results are spelling out “change ahead” for the Republican brand.
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“To some extent, it comes as no surprise,” a national Republican strategist in Washington told us. “The Upstate has been the citadel of conservatism in South Carolina for many decades. So that was a natural fit with a hardliner like Norman. What’s revealing is that running as a conservative didn’t play anywhere else.”
Of the Palmetto State’s ten most populous counties, Nordone carried seven. More tellingly, of the 32 counties she racked up in her column, ten of them — just shy of one-third — voted for her by 70% or more. By comparison, Norman didn’t reach 70% in any of his; the closest counties were Greenville at 67.49% and Spartanburg at 65.55%.
In fact, Norman came dangerously close to losing one of his dozen counties – prevailing in sparsely populated Abbeville by a mere 28 votes.
Turning our attention to some of the state’s traditional swing counties, several of which border the Upstate, the margins were closer. Nordone carried Lancaster, while Norman scored smaller margin wins in places like Oconee and Newberry. (It’s also worth pointing out the latter was the deepest penetration he made into the state’s interior).
What do these numbers tell us?
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“Several things,” the strategist we spoke with concluded. “The Upstate versus the rest of South Carolina tradition is growing more pronounced. That’s largely due to people moving in from other states. And more often than not, they’re bringing their more moderate views along with them. So, while South Carolina remains Republican ruby red, its former solidly conservative nature is slowly inching toward the middle.”
That’s especially significant with the 2028 presidential campaign looming right around the corner. The Palmetto State remains home to the first-in-the-South presidential primary (at least for Republicans, anyway). Could we see GOP candidates tone down their rhetoric when stumping here to appeal to transplant voters?
The runoff also drove home a hard truth: for better or worse, the Republican Party’s reins rest in one person’s hands alone.
“This is now, more than ever before, the party of Trump,” the strategist said. “That’s the takeaway from this cycle’s primaries all around the country, South Carolina included. A candidate who crosses Trump risks doing so at his own peril. The amount of money that can be channeled to the MAGA endorsed rival is overwhelming. Look what you just went through down there.”
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South Carolina, I am deeply honored and humbled to accept your nomination as the Republican candidate for the United States Senate.
— Darline Graham (@DarlineGrahamSC) August 26, 2026
First and foremost, I thank the Lord for His blessings and guidance. To my family, President Trump, Team Graham, and the countless supporters… pic.twitter.com/R2nCBocrIf
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Indeed, anecdotal evidence coupled with financial filings tells a lopsided story.
“One day last week, I opened my mailbox,” one runoff voter told us. “I found four pieces attacking Ralph, and only one supporting him. The odds were even more pronounced in the number of TV and digital commercials I saw. Darline owned the airwaves and broadband by a wide margin. How is someone supposed to compete under that sustained, intense barrage of attacks?”
In the end, Norman couldn’t deflect them. That inability provided the 18,074 extra votes Nordone needed to propel her to victory, with returns suggesting undecided voters broke heavily in Nordone’s favor.
One final point of interest: participation in the August 25 runoff increased from the original August 11 primary turnout. An extra 33,343 Republicans voted this week, a 10% jump from two weeks previously.
“That’s what happens when you give folks something to talk about,” the strategist concluded. “Trump’s endorsement, Trump’s rally in Myrtle Beach last Friday night, Nordone’s national security gaffe in the televised debate… they’re all factors in ginning up interest. And when interest goes up, so do the number of votes cast.”
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR…
J. Mark Powell is an award-winning former TV journalist, government communications veteran, and a political consultant. He is also an author and an avid Civil War enthusiast. Got a tip or a story idea for Mark? Email him at mark@fitsnews.com.
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