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by WILL FOLKS
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South Carolina attorney general Alan Wilson leads the decisive Republican primary race for governor of the Palmetto State in 2026, according to a new survey released by his campaign.
The four-term top prosecutor – who has rated either first or second in every major poll released so far this election cycle – leads the field with 23% support from likely Republican primary voters, according to the data. That puts him six percentage points ahead of third-term U.S. congresswoman Nancy Mace (17%).
Lieutenant governor Pamela Evette was just behind Mace, drawing 16% support, while fifth district congressman Ralph Norman was in fourth place with 12% support. An estimated 2% of likely GOP primary voters backed scandal-scarred state senator Josh Kimbrell, while 30% were undecided.
Of interest?
While Wilson’s rivals will likely pounce on the fact the data is coming from his campaign organization, this is not the first campaign-based poll to be released during the current election cycle – nor are its findings out of line with the apparent state of the race.
Wilson is “currently in the strongest position in a fragmented multi-candidate Republican primary for governor,” an accompanying polling memo (.pdf) noted.
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“Wilson is the most popular candidate for governor and is winning on the ballot,” the pollsters added, indicating their research found Wilson had “the most favorable overall image among the declared candidates for governor.”
“Wilson combines the most favorable image among declared candidates with meaningful room to grow among voters who have not yet formed an opinion of him,” they concluded.
According to the poll, Wilson is viewed favorably by 47% of likely primary voters – with 19% viewing him unfavorably. Mace, on the other hand, has a 41% favorability rating with 48% viewing her unfavorably. This is the fourth poll, incidentally, which showed Mace with a 48% unfavorable rating among likely GOP primary voters.
Despite those high disapproval marks, just last week an independent survey found Mace leading the field in the race to replace status quo governor Henry McMaster. Meanwhile, another poll provided to FITSNews had Mace leading Wilson 25-22% – with both frontrunners polling double-digits ahead of their nearest competitors.
McMaster served half of former governor Nikki Haley’s second term (from 2017-2019) and is currently wrapping up his second, four-year term – which is scheduled to reach its merciful conclusion in January 2027. Five Republicans and two Democrats have announced their intention to replace him, with most of the action in the race occurring on the GOP side seeing as no Democrat has won a governor’s race in the Palmetto State 28 years.
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The poll released by Wilson’s campaign surveyed 800 likely GOP primary voters between February 2-5, 2026 using a mix of live calls to cell phones and landlines and text-to-web surveys. Its margin of error is plus or minus 3.5%.
Sources familiar with the survey indicated pollsters conducted negative message testing on all of the top-tier candidates – hitting each of them (including Wilson) on their most glaring vulnerabilities. According to these sources, Wilson managed to expand his lead in the “post-messaging” phase of the poll – indicating his top-tier rivals could be more susceptible than him to negative attacks down the critical homestretch of the race.
Partisan primary elections in South Carolina are scheduled for June 9, 2026. In the event no candidate wins a majority of votes on the first ballot – which is a likelihood in the governor’s race – a head-to-head runoff between the top two vote-getters would be held two weeks later (on June 23, 2026). As noted, the GOP primary is the race to watch in South Carolina, as Democrats haven’t won a gubernatorial election since 1998 – and haven’t won a statewide election since 2006.
That means the GOP nominee in this race is all but assured of prevailing in the general election next November.
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THE MEMO…
(NPA Polling)
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR…
Will Folks is the founding editor of the news outlet you are currently reading. Prior to founding FITSNews, he served as press secretary to the governor of South Carolina. He lives in the Midlands region of the state with his wife and eight children.
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