Crossroads 2026: It’s Showtime in the 2026 GOP Governor’s Race

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by MARK POWELL

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“Shit’s about to get real, real quick…”

Profanity aside, that assessment from a veteran Palmetto political observer (unaffiliated with any campaign) succinctly sums up where things stand in the race for the 2026 Republican gubernatorial nomination. Considering no Democrat has won the office since Jim Hodges in 1998, the GOP race is the only show in town.

Think of the contest as an auto race. The first half of 2025 was spent in pace laps as potential candidates maneuvered into position. State Senator Josh Kimbrell tried to steal Attorney General Alan Wilson’s thunder by announcing his candidacy earlier in the day of the latter’s kickoff event on June 23. Lieutenant Governor Pamela Evette quickly followed them on July 14, with Congressman Ralph Norman announcing on July 27 and Congresswoman Nancy Mace on August 4.

Barring any late surprises ahead of March’s filing window (remember John Warren upset a lot of apple carts with his late entry in 2018’s gubernatorial contest), the leading players are now cast in the quadrennial political drama.

And so, with 2026 finally here, the green flag has been dropped, and drivers are now putting the pedal to the metal in earnest. However, this time around, several would-be governors didn’t wait to start full-throttle, full-fledged campaigning. So, it’s worth catching up on where things stand five months before the make-or-break June 9 Republican primary.    

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ALAN WILSON

Arguably, Wilson is the candidate sitting in the driver’s seat as the race enters the far turn. The four-term AG and son of long-serving Congressman Joe Wilson has proven himself a reliable voter-getter with a talent for serious fundraising. His campaign coffers, coupled with those of affiliated PACs, represent an arsenal containing considerable financial firepower. That’s not to be taken lightly in an age where it costs of lot of money just to lose an election.

And, as one of the longest-serving constitutional officers in Columbia, he has the double advantage of statewide name ID and the ability to make news to keep his name in the headlines.

Politically, anecdotal evidence suggests he has solid support among evangelical Christians, a voting bloc never to be ignored in Republican primaries, especially in the GOP-vote-rich Upstate region. 

The rap heard most frequently against Wilson is that he’s “too nice.” Genuinely affable and likable, the state’s official lawyer is a polished gentleman. That has some people within the Inside Baseball crowd wondering if he’s “too nice” for the unpleasant task of dispatching political rivals. However, one person who has worked closely with Wilson brushed that aside.

“Obviously, those folks have never been beside Alan in the heat of battle,” they noted. “When the decisive moment comes, you can count on him to rise to the occasion. He’s done it before, and he’ll do it again.”

Wilson is also heading into a minefield littered with hidden explosives. Mace has staked out a lane as the “change” candidate. Evette is generally seen as occupying the status quo/”establishment” lane. And Norman is running as a hardline conservative.

“Where does that leave Wilson?” a political strategist in Washington noted. “A case can be made that he’s planted his flag in each area. But he’s not seen as the standard-bearer for any of them.”

Wilson has done a commendable job of withstanding withering broadsides repeatedly lobbed at him by Mace. Though he has responded when he felt necessary, Wilson has generally tried to position himself as the grown-up in the room and stayed above the fray.

That strategy has worked well for him so far. But will it continue to do so if his opponents unleash withering attacks aimed solely at him?

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NANCY MACE

If nothing else, Nancy Mace has reaffirmed her ability to direct the spotlight to herself. That’s an invaluable skill in political campaigning. However, in Mace’s case, that same spotlight is now shining brightly on some personal flaws that are hurting her candidacy.

She started 2025 not with a bang, but with a 50-megaton nuclear explosion. Her famous “scorched earth” speech on the floor of the U.S. House of Representatives was breathtaking in its boldness and audacity. She simultaneously portrayed herself as a champion of victimized and abused women and as a warrior willing to throw the gauntlet of blame directly at Wilson’s feet. She wasn’t afraid to name names and assign blame. And that was just her opening act.

Mace went on the brand Wilson a do-nothing AG who has turned a blind eye to abusers. Her aggressive approach initially bore results, with both her polling numbers and campaign donations trending upward.

Yet over time, her relentless vitriol began to wear thin as her attacks grew increasingly outrageous. Some have even suggested they may have created a backlash of support for Wilson. At the same time, other issues crept onto center stage.

There was the swirl of legal proceedings and counter proceedings involving some of the men she accused in her big speech. Things grew so messy, the judge eventually issued a gag order.

Then there was her campaign team. The staffing in her official office in Washington has been largely problematic – “a case study in revolving door administrative incompetency,” as one Capitol Hill source put it. Her campaign team has been equally so, with its manager making an acrimonious departure last fall followed by a predictable round of name-calling by the candidate on his way out.

But all of that paled in comparison to reports of Mace engaging in an obscenity-laced tirade against police officers at Charleston’s airport in late October. 

That was the point where it all caught up with her. Her polling sagged as many South Carolinians were left aghast at her behavior.

“It’s like witnessing a breakdown in real time,” one Palmetto observer said, expressing an opinion that was repeatedly shared with us by others. “It’s unsettling to watch.”

Yet while Mace begins 2026 down, she is far from out. Her core supporters are sticking with her, and if she’s able to tap into the new national funding stream secured via her alliance with a prominent libertarian political action committee, she should be able to address her sky-high negatives.

“Never underestimate Nancy Mace’s ability to turn around any situation to her advantage and come out of it stronger than before,” one analyst told us. “Those who are currently counting her out do so at their own peril. This race is far from over.”

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PAMELA EVETTE

Minus a death or resignation, going from “Lite Governor” to the top job is never easy. Just ask André Bauer, Bob Peeler, and Nick Theodore. The position carries an impressive title but comes with precious little political clout.

Upbeat and popular in Columbia social circles, Pamela Evette has staked out a position for herself in the status quo/”establishment” wing of the Republican party. Her approach has basically been, “if you like what you’ve had for nine years with Henry McMaster, count on more of the same from me.”

Evette has suffered some missteps. For instance, a ham-fisted early poll that showed her smoking the competition was dismissed by political pros as “amateurish.” And campaign claims suggesting she was favored by President Donald Trump and McMaster produced unpleasant reactions at both Mar-a-Lago and the Governor’s Mansion.

The biggest problem dogging her, however, is one she can’t avoid. Born and raised in Ohio, the carpetbagger label has consistently dogged her, with reactions ranging from “Is she really one of us?” to the unkind nickname “The Yankee Woman.”

Evette shrugs it off, reminding voters that South Carolina’s growth is propelled by people from other states settling here. An energetic campaigner, she seems to enjoy retail political settings.

With GOP establishment backing, she could be positioned to swoop in and take advantage of the situation if her rivals turn on each other. But should that strategic opportunity arise, she’ll need a more compelling message than “I’ll give you more of what you had with Henry.”

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RALPH NORMAN

“Shrewd.” “Wily.” “Crafty like a fox.” They’re among the terms seasoned Palmetto political pros use to describe S.C. fifth district congressman Ralph Norman.

His lane in this race is clearly defined.

“Nobody is going to outflank Ralph on the right,” one campaign veteran commented.

As a member of the U.S. House Freedom Caucus and as the godfather of the emerging South Carolina Freedom Caucus, his conservative bona fides are well established.

However, in a state that allows open voting in its primary, and with a healthy chunk of “Republicans In Name Only” within the GOP base, some observers wonder if there’s room for him to grow the Norman brand.

“He doesn’t need to grow it,” one supporter countered. “In fact, he needs to embrace it all the more. Because while everyone talks a conservative talk, Ralph has walked the conservative walk.”

Norman spent the summer and fall (including a big chunk of time unexpectedly made available by the recent prolonged federal government shutdown) tending to the business of politics: making the rounds, mending fences, nailing down support within his fifth district base. He’s not a flashy campaigner and doesn’t react to every item in the news each day the way some politicians do. Yet he’s not to be taken lightly, either.

“He’s like a cat,” one strategist explained. “He’ll carefully study the situation, bide his time patiently waiting for just the right moment, then pounce. And when he does, he’ll hit with everything he’s got.”

And that could be a powerful punch. Norman is friendly with many powerful conservatives on Capitol Hill, which, in turn, could open doors to serious financial funding. Then there’s his personal wealth. There are repeated whispers in political circles that he’s willing to deep into his own deep pockets in the coming months – as his latest campaign finance pronouncements would seem to prove.

At this moment, Norman isn’t expected to win the nomination outright. But if a favorable scenario unfolds, he could make it into a runoff. And if that happens, all bets are off.

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JOSH KIMBRELL

The most charitable thing to be said about Josh Kimbrell‘s candidacy is that he’s an also-ran in waiting. Because this campaign arrived in the race stillborn.

For starters, there was Kimbrell formally announcing his candidacy the same day as Wilson’s big launch event that evening.

“A high school student council level stunt,” one observer called it, because it generated more ill will than good, which is bad math.

Math problems of a more serious sort have hobbled his campaign. Kimbrell and his wife are embroiled in a protracted (and rancorous) lawsuit with a former business partner over their chartered air service that’s occupying an increasing amount of his time and attention. He revealed the week before Christmas he’d been forced to sell his home as a result of the costly legal fracas. That’s obviously not the place to be when you’re in the middle of a hotly contested five-way primary.

Plus, Kimbrell’s repeated claims that the civil lawsuit is a “politically motivated attack” are wearing thin.

Additionally, Kimbrell’s Senate voting record has led some to question his claims of being a conservative crusader. (Not to mention Norman being positioned to breathe fire down his neck from the Right.)

Given all that, some are wondering if it’s time for Kimbrell to give up his dream of moving into the governor’s mansion and focus on holding on to his current legislative seat instead.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR…

J. Mark Powell is an award-winning former TV journalist, government communications veteran, and a political consultant. He is also an author and an avid Civil War enthusiast. Got a tip or a story idea for Mark? Email him at mark@fitsnews.com.

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