‘First In The South’ Fallout: Palmetto Repercussions Abound

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South Carolina is famed for its starring role in picking presidents. On both the Republican and Democrat side, winning the Palmetto State’s presidential primary has proven crucial to capturing the White House. Just ask Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Barack Obama and George W. Bush how important the state was to their presidential aspirations.

While ‘First in the South’ Carolina has become a pivotal presidential proving ground… it’s also become a fertile recruiting ground for political players looking to assume top roles in Washington, D.C. When Trump won the White House in 2016, for example, it set off a major political reorientation in the Palmetto State after the former president tapped multiple South Carolinians for key posts in his administration.

In other words: There’s a lot more at stake in tomorrow’s voting than simply deciding who’ll reside at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue for the next four years.

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South Carolinians watching the results trickle in on election night will obviously be eagerly eyeing the presidential race, the battle for control of the U.S. Congress and a handful of Palmetto State legislative races.

But they should keep one eye on the fallout from the 2024 election… especially if Trump emerges victorious.

Here’s a look at the players whose political destinies could rise or fall based on the outcome of this day of decision…

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HENRY McMASTER

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If Donald Trump is re-elected, Henry McMaster will have a blissful final two years of his decade as governor – assuming he decides he wants to remain in the Palmetto State.

McMaster could likely have a shot at a top post in Trump’s administration if he wanted it, but those close to him maintain his heart is in his hometown of Columbia, S.C.

Though the former president is notoriously mercurial and changes alliances as easily as most of us change socks, he’s been uncharacteristically loyal to McMaster. Having his calls swiftly returned by the White House would position McMaster to get much of what he wants from Washington as he runs out the clock on his governorship.

And if Kamala Harris wins, McMaster would be no worse off than he’s been for the last four years with Biden. All things considered; McMaster is in a can’t-lose situation.

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TIM SCOTT

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Tim Scott, the junior senator from South Carolina, is another Trump favorite. Even when they were opponents in last winter’s presidential primary, they said nice things about each other – and Scott was downright effusive in his praise of Trump after he dropped out of the 2024 race.

It’s no leap to suggest a Trump victory might catapult Scott into a top cabinet position – but a Harris win also could alter his career path.

Given Scott’s less-than-secret eagerness to leave Capitol Hill, he might be tempted to come home and run for governor in 2026 (possibly even stepping down from his Senate seat in a move that would enable McMaster to name attorney general Alan Wilson as Scott’s replacement).

Whatever happens with Trump, Scott’s decision about his future in Washington D.C. is the post-2024 wild card Palmetto politicos are waiting to be played before they assess their future options…

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 LINDSEY GRAHAM 

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It would take an entire team of psychiatrists working overtime to figure out the Trump-Graham relationship. The way Lindsey Graham tells it, the two chat on the phone with the frequency of high school chums. Trump says nice things about Graham — until Graham goes off the reservation and dumps on the former president.

A nasty public spat follows, and then all is forgiven… and suddenly they’re buddies again.

When Trump was elected in 2016, Graham shed his #NeverTrumper skin like a snake and was suddenly a full-throated member of Team MAGA. Or was he? Astute political observers note it was Graham’s advocacy for a federal abortion ban that put Trump in a tough spot with female voters – prompting the GOP’s recent backpedal on this issue.

Was Graham truly zealous in his pro-life push? Or was he playing politics in attempt to undermine his longtime frenemy.

History could repeat itself in the event Trump is reelected – as Graham is up for re-election himself in 2026. A growing number of South Carolina conservatives are openly expressing their frustration with their senior senator’s skipping back and forth between RINO and MAGA territory like a ping-pong ball. Graham will need Trump solidly in his corner to fight off a possible primary challenge on his right flank.

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NIKKI HALEY

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Of all the Palmetto politicos discussed here, the former governor is in the toughest predicament of all. 

It’s no secret she and Donald Trump don’t like — and don’t trust — each other. Yet the fates have trapped them together at this moment in time, and so they’re stuck with each other. 

Trump said all the obligatory nice things about her once he clinched the nomination — and then essentially ignored her. Likewise, Nikki Haley eventually endorsed Trump — though with a lack of enthusiasm that screamed volumes — when she concluded her unsuccessful presidential bid. 

After making up for lost time by feathering her personal financial nest (including signing a lucrative deal for a pay radio talk show gig), Haley was M.I.A. on the 2024 trail… although she has belatedly tried to insert herself in the fall campaign’s dialogue. 

Though it’s fair to say Haley is more anti-Harris than pro-Trump, she can’t afford to stray too far off the MAGA reservation. Doing so would be the kiss of death for her already slim chances to claim the 2028 presidential nomination. But Haley hasn’t broken into a sweat over-exerting herself too strenuously these past six weeks. A high-profile appearance stumping for Pennsylvania’s GOP U.S. Senate nominee notwithstanding, she’s instead spent her autumn days safely going after Harris on her new podcast while tossing in occasional finger wags at fellow Republicans.

But Haley’s post-election prognosis has grown cloudy of late. Many in the Republican Party’s conservative base have been impressed by Sen. J.D. Vance‘s performance as Trump’s running mate. If the Trump-Vance ticket wins on Tuesday, he could head into the next cycle as the incumbent Veep and, quite possibly, inheritor of the MAGA mantle.

Even if Trump loses, Vance is far better positioned than Haley to win over GOP primary voters – especially in early-voting South Carolina.

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RUSSELL FRY

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South Carolina’s newest congressman spent his freshman year on Capitol Hill flying under the radar. But that doesn’t mean he’s escaped the inside baseball crowd’s attention. Now, there’s increasing speculation about what the future could hold in store for him.

You’ll recall Russell Fry seized on the fury coastal Republicans felt for incumbent congressman Tom Rice after he voted to impeach Trump in 2021. Despite a crowded GOP field – and with both Trump’s endorsement and the help of gleeful “Fry the Rice” chants at campaign events – Fry clinched the nomination without a runoff. Fry has remained a stalwart Trump loyalist ever since and is cruising toward an easy reelection victory on Tuesday.

Could a high-level administration position be in store if Trump wins? There’s ample buzz suggesting as much. However, Fry’s immediate future won’t be quite so rosy if Harris wins and Democrats reclaim the U.S. House. Life in the minority is no fun on the Hill. Might that tempt Fry to consider seeking another office closer to home in 2026?    

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NANCY MACE

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Turning our attention to the Lowcountry, it’s said the D.C. fun has worn off for Congresswoman Nancy Mace. She’s reportedly gazing less these days at the District of Columbia and more at Columbia, South Carolina. Assuming she easily brushes aside her Democratic challenger Tuesday as expected, what then?  

There’s mounting chatter among politicos that Mace will give up her House seat in 2026 to run for governor. That scenario holds interesting dynamics, especially if fellow Lowcountry resident Tim Scott does the same.

Should she indeed go for the gubernatorial brass ring – and should Trump be reelected – Mace would likely press hard for his endorsement. Her someone dicey track record with the former president seems to be back on track these days (Trump endorsed her primary opponent in 2022 but then restored his blessing to her last spring.) She says Trump listens to her on women’s issues (abortion, IVF, and the like). But would he listen if she asked for his imprimatur in 2026?

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 JAIME HARRISON

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The South Carolina native at the helm of the Democratic National Committee has had a rough year. First, he did the White House’s bidding by making sure the party’s primary calendar was rigged to guarantee Joe Biden’s renomination (including dissing New Hampshire’s traditional first-in-the-nation spot and replacing it with the Palmetto State). Then, when Biden managed to blow a situation he couldn’t lose by stupidly agreeing to debate Trump before the nominating conventions, he again loyally honored the Democratic Elite’s marching orders by installing Harris as presidential nominee (without receiving a single primary vote). Then, he watched as Harris’ early lead in the polls withered to a near tie going into election day. 

So, what happens next for Harrison?

If Harris wins, he would be ideally positioned to collect an incredibly large IOU. Should she lose, he could possibly be unfairly framed as the fall guy. Election day is clearly an all-or-nothing proposition for the DNC chairman.

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JAMES CLYBURN

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Of all the Palmetto pols discussed here, James Clyburn is the one who can’t lose – regardless of what happens Tuesday.

Should Harris win, the dean of our congressional delegation will continue in the role he’s played since January 2021: Gatekeeper for presidential patronage in South Carolina. 

Should she lose, he’ll reprise his role as kingmaker once again in the 2028 Democratic primary cycle.   

Either way, he’s covered…

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR …

J. Mark Powell is an award-winning former TV journalist, government communications veteran, and a political consultant. He is also an author and an avid Civil War enthusiast. Got a tip or a story idea for Mark? Email him at mark@fitsnews.com.

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