by WILL FOLKS
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In close elections, pollsters are often reticent to share their final numbers – especially if the contests in question fall within their margins of error.
Rick Quinn – son of the late, legendary strategist Richard Quinn – is clearly unburdened by such reticence. With less than 16 hours to go before voters head to the polls, the veteran GOP pollster and tactician extraordinaire is letting it all hang out, releasing the results of his final survey of the Palmetto State’s divided electorate.
Per Quinn’s data, released on Monday (November 2, 2026), Democrat Annie Andrews enjoys a narrow lead over interim U.S. senator Darline Graham Nordone – sister of the late Lindsey Graham. Andrews was backed by 46.2% of likely voters compared to 44.6% for Nordone – an edge of 1.6% for the Democrat challenger, according to the survey.
Quinn’s poll (.pdf) had other candidates receiving 2.7% of the vote and 6.5% of respondents undecided.
According to Quinn, Nordone does have some momentum behind her in the final days of the race – with two visits from U.S. president Donald Trump apparently encouraging many reluctant Republicans to support her candidacy.
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“The race trended mildly in Graham (Nordone)’s direction over the last few days of polling,” Quinn said. “It’s one of the closest general election races I’ve polled, and Election Day turnout is the key.”
“The two Trump visits in the closing weeks appear to have worked, at least to some extent,” Quinn added. “Republicans are coming together behind Graham (Nordone), and that has tightened her race.”
Republican gubernatorial nominee Alan Wilson – the Palmetto State’s four-term attorney general – enjoys a significant lead over his Democrat rival, state representative Jermaine Johnson, according to Quinn’s data. Wilson was backed by 50.6% of respondents – compared to 42.3% for Johnson. That’s an edge of 8.3% – meaning Wilson is running nearly ten percentage points ahead of Nordone.
Other candidates in the governor’s race were drawing 1.2% support, while 5.9% of respondents said they were undecided.
“The question for Tuesday is simple: will the Republicans who haven’t voted yet show up?” Quinn noted in his memo. “For Wilson, the answer sets the size of his lead. For Graham (Nordone), it decides the race.”
Referring to the more than 1 million early votes cast in South Carolina over the past two weeks, Quinn noted an estimated 27% of them came from black voters – prompting him to model a final black turnout model of 22.5%.
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“If Election Day turnout brings that share back toward 22 percent, Wilson wins by double digits and the Senate race is a coin flip,” Quinn said. “If it stays near 27 percent, Wilson still wins comfortably, but Graham (Nordone) is in serious trouble.”
Quinn surveyed 600 likely voters on October 30, 2026. His poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 4% – meaning the U.S. Senate race is well within its margin of error.
National Republican pollster Robert Cahaly also released his final survey results on Monday – showing Nordone at 47.5% and Andrews at 45.5% with 2.8% of respondents supporting other candidates and 4.2% undecided. In the governor’s race, Cahaly’s data (.pdf) showed Wilson with a 15% lead over Johnson – 54.1%–39.1% – with 2.1% of respondents backing other candidates and 4.7% undecided.
Cahaly surveyed 1,091 respondents between October 31-November 1, 2026. His poll’s margin of error was plus or minus 2.9%, meaning the U.S. Senate race is well within its margin of error, too.
Bottom line? Wilson is well-positioned to become governor-elect of South Carolina tomorrow night, while the U.S. Senate race is a definitional coin flip… which is absolutely shocking considering how reliably red South Carolina has been for the past several decades. Democrats haven’t won a statewide race in South Carolina since 2006 – and haven’t won a U.S. Senate election in the Palmetto State since 1998.
Against all odds, Andrews is an even money bet to break that streak on Tuesday evening…
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THE SURVEY…
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR…
Will Folks is the founding editor of the news outlet you are currently reading. Prior to founding FITSNews, he served as press secretary to the governor of South Carolina. He lives in the Midlands region of the state with his wife and eight children.
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