by WILL FOLKS
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Days after one of his venerated surveys suggested an extremely competitive race for the United States Senate in South Carolina, a prominent national pollster published new data indicating every other statewide race in the Palmetto State is shaping up as a rout.
That disconnect demonstrates just how out of touch the U.S. Senate nominee (and her supporters) have become… and how potentially potent a movement against her from within her own party has become.
Tor recap: Atlanta-based strategist Robert Cahaly released a poll late Sunday (October 18, 2026) indicating interim U.S. senator Darline Graham Nordone of South Carolina was clinging to a narrow lead over Democrat Annie Andrews. Cahaly’s poll had Nordone at 48.6% and Andrews at 45.6% – which is right on the cusp of its 2.9% margin of error.
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Libertarian Kasie Whitener drew 3.9% support in that survey, which critics claim oversampled the strength of the Republican electorate in the Palmetto State – and overestimated Nordone’s performance among black voters.
On Tuesday evening (October 20, 2026), Cahaly released his latest polling data for the South Carolina governor’s race – and several other statewide races pitting GOP candidates against their Democrat rivals. Coming just hours after we exclusively reported that GOP gubernatorial nominee Alan Wilson was enjoying a 10% lead over Democrat state representative Jermaine Johnson (consistent with previous polling in this race) – Cahaly’s numbers blew the doors off of that estimate.
According to his results (.pdf), Wilson was backed by 52.5% of likely voters compared to 36.5% for Johnson – a whopping 16% advantage for the Republican nominee. United Citizens candidate Michael Addison drew 4.2% support while Green party nominee Walid Hakim was backed by 1.6% of respondents. Cahaly’s survey showed 5.2% of the electorate in the governor’s race as undecided.
Wilson was by far and away the strongest candidate on the ballot, However, GOP attorney general nominee David Stumbo – who is running to replace Wilson as the Palmetto State’s top prosecutor – came close to matching him. Stumbo, a veteran solicitor, was backed by 52.2% of likely voters in his race against Democrat Richard Hricik, a Charleston attorney who drew 37% support.
An estimated 10.8% of the electorate remains undecided in that race, per the survey.
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New: @trafalgar_group 2026 SC Governor’s Poll (10/16-10/18) 1095 Respondents 2.9 MOE 52.5% @AGAlanWilson 36.5% @Dr_JLJohnson 4.2% Michael Addison 1.6% @walid_hakim13 5.2% Und Full report (with AG and Agriculture races included): https://t.co/O16vZEILfz https://t.co/ua9oxMo6RY
— Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) October 20, 2026
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Cahaly also posted numbers in the race for S.C. commissioner of agriculture, in which Republican nominee Cody Simpson was leading Democrat DeShawn Blanding by a whopping 50.7%–33.3% margin. Libertarian nominee Michael Sullens was backed by 5.2% while United Citizens candidate Chris Nelums drew 2% support. An estimated 8.7% of voters remained undecided in that contest, per the pollster.
“Man how bad is Darline Graham,” one response to the results noted. “(Presumably) same electorate that is producing Graham +3 is Wilson +16.”
That’s true… but Wilson’s strength at the top of the GOP ticket should accrue to Nordone’s benefit, likely providing enough Republican support to drag her across the finish line in her race against Andrews.
Cahaly’s poll (which included the U.S. Senate results) surveyed 1,095 likely voters between October 16-18, 2026. As noted, its margin of error is plus or minus 2.9%.
Voters started heading to the polls on Monday (October 19, 2026) as early voting commenced across the state – with turnout reportedly brisk. Election Day is November 3, 2026 – just thirteen (13) days away. As we previously reported, U.S. president Donald Trump is coming to Clemson, S.C. this week to shore up support for Nordone.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR…
Will Folks is the founding editor of the news outlet you are currently reading. Prior to founding FITSNews, he served as press secretary to the governor of South Carolina. He lives in the Midlands region of the state with his wife and eight children.
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1 comment
What about other down- ballot statewide races?