S.C. Succession Exclusive: U.S. Senate Poll Shows Nordone, Norman Headed to Runoff

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by WILL FOLKS

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Interim U.S. senator Darline Graham Nordone and veteran congressman Ralph Norman are poised to advance to a runoff election in the battle to replace the late Lindsey Graham on South Carolina’s GOP senatorial ballot this fall, if the results of a new poll are to be believed.

Nordone was backed by 25.2% of likely primary voters in the new survey – which was conducted earlier this week by Resonance Media Strategies. Norman drew the support of 18.2% of respondents in the poll.

While Nordone and Norman were the clear frontrunners, a huge chunk of the Palmetto State’s Republican electorate (22.9%) was still undecided ahead of the special Republican primary next Tuesday (August 11, 2026). Also, two other candidates were potentially within striking distance of qualifying for a runoff, the poll found.

In South Carolina partisan primary elections, if no candidate secures a majority of votes on the first ballot – which is highly unlikely in this race – the top two vote-getters will advance to a head-to-head runoff election two weeks later.

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On the outside looking in were seventh district congressman Russell Fry – who was backed by 11.9% of likely GOP voters – and former two-term governor Mark Sanford, who drew 11.2% support, according to the poll. Upstate businessman Mark Lynch was in fifth place with 5.6% support.

Fry remained best positioned to climb into contention as both Sanford and Lynch had stratospheric unfavorable ratings, per the survey. Sanford was viewed unfavorably by 33.7% of likely voters – compared to 31.4% who had a favorable impression of him, according to the poll. Lynch was also “underwater,” with 31.5% of respondents having an unfavorable view of him compared to just 24.2% who viewed him favorably.

Fry, conversely, was viewed favorably by 30.8% of respondents compared to just 11% who had an unfavorable view of him.

Resonance’s survey was conducted by veteran political strategist Rick Quinn – son of the late, legendary strategist Richard Quinn. As noted in our prior coverage, Quinn has proven remarkably accurate in his assessments of the Palmetto electorate of late – with his use of live calls placed to landlines and cell phones generating consistently reliable data.

“Absent a late collapse of the undecided vote in one direction, which nothing here suggests is happening, the primary produces a runoff and the runoff decides the seat,” Quinn said, referring to the upcoming head-to-head race.

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According to the pollster, that makes voters’ second preference tremendously important. Among voters who named a first choice, Norman was the most commonly named as a second choice (17.8%) – putting him ahead of Nordone (12.9%), Fry (12.7%) and Sanford (12.4%).

Norman also enjoyed another key advantage, according to Quinn, in that his support is concentrated amongst diehard Republican voters – i.e. the ones most likely to show up next Tuesday (and again on August 25). Nordone’s support, on the other hand, “rests on the voters least likely to show up.”

Among GOP voters who have participated in just one of the last four partisan primary elections, Nordone enjoyed a nearly 2-to-1 edge over Norman (25.8% to 13.5%). Among GOP voters who have cast ballots in the last four partisan primary elections, Norman led 29.3% to 23.5%.

The percentage of undecided voters also shrunk based on the number of recent elections in which a likely voter had participated – dropping from 27.7% among those who voted in just one GOP primary to 17.1% among those who voted in the last four.

And yes, that discrepancy is more than a little bit ironic considering Nordone’s lax participation in GOP primary elections – something Fry has consistently called her out on.

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Will those undecided voters show up on August 11? Or will they (like Nordone in so many prior primaries) choose to stay at home instead?

Perhaps Nordone’s biggest problem, though, is her failure to capitalize on what should be her most significant advantage in this race – the backing she has received from U.S. president Donald Trump. Like lieutenant governor Pamela Evette in the recent GOP gubernatorial primary, Nordone has failed to convert “the most valuable endorsement in American politics” into a dominant lead in a state where Trump remains beloved.

According to Quinn, Trump’s imprimatur is “an asset that strong should be worth considerably more than a quarter of a fractured primary field.”

“Nothing else available to a Republican candidate tests at that level,” he noted.

Quinn also pointed out Nordone is “not short of resources, either,” citing an estimated $1.257 million spent on her behalf by four different committees. That total is “the largest of any operation in the race.”

Resonance surveyed 600 likely primary voters on August 5, 2026. Its sample was drawn from the South Carolina statewide voter file and limited to voters with Republican primary participation history. The survey’s margin of error wasF plus or minus 4%.

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THE POLL…

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR…

Will Folks is the founding editor of the news outlet you are currently reading. Prior to founding FITSNews, he served as press secretary to the governor of South Carolina. He lives in the Midlands region of the state with his wife and eight children.

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