Will Donald Trump Wade Into the South Carolina Governor’s Race?

by MARK POWELL

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One down, one to go… 

Now that retiring South Carolina governor Henry McMaster has made his choice in this year’s GOP gubernatorial primary, one final big endorsement remains up for grabs: the famous thumbs-up photo with president Donald Trump.

McMaster’s backing of lieutenant governor Pamela Evette, announced earlier this month, was one of the worst-kept secrets in Palmetto politics. In fact, it had been expected all year.

“Who else was he going to back?” one state politico unaffiliated with any campaign joked. “Not endorsing her now would be tacitly admitting he’d made a mistake when he picked her back in 2018. So there was never any doubt about that.”

A better question is how much impact McMaster’s support will actually have on Evette’s campaign.

“Got a microscope?” another strategist quipped. “You’ll need one, because Henry McMaster has the shortest coattails in South Carolina. Seriously, a lot of county sheriffs have more influence with GOP primary voters than he does.”

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Whatever its impact, with McMaster’s endorsement now out of the way, all eyes are shifting to the one that truly matters in Republican circles: Trump’s. And that’s where reading the political tea leaves gets dicey.

One campaign is privately telling supporters that Trump’s seal of approval is “in the bag.” Another tut-tuts that. Others are taking a cautious “wait and see” approach. 

Why such widely differing scenarios? Because Trump World is like an octopus with multiple tentacles of access all leading to one source. There’s the official conduit through the White House Office of Political Affairs. There are backchannel conduits to Mar-a-Lago. And there are conduits via influential friends who have direct personal links to Trump.

Different avenues, different answers.

Add to that a notoriously mercurial president known to abruptly change his mind at the drop of a hat, and you’ve got the makings for a “your guess is as good as mine” situation.

But there’s one dynamic that no one can deny: the cold, hard reality of congressional math. And the numbers on Capitol Hill will have a direct bearing on Trump’s ultimate decision in South Carolina.

As of this moment, Republicans hold 218 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. Democrats are nipping dangerously close to their heels with 214. Three seats remain vacant. That’s a legislative high-wire act with zero margin for error.

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Now, consider the current field of five leading GOP candidates: two are House members, and a third is the son of a member. See Trump’s dilemma?

“The president would be foolish in the extreme to wade into that minefield,” a Republican strategist in Washington opined. “For him, it’s all risk with virtually no reward. They say discretion is the better part of valor. For Trump, this is one of those times.”

Were Trump to choose first district congresswoman Nancy Mace, fifth district congressman Ralph Norman or four-term attorney general Alan Wilson (son of veteran second district congressman Joe Wilson), he runs the very real risk of pissing off the members he didn’t endorse and losing their votes for the rest of the year.

If he picks the lieutenant governor, as many believe he is inclined to do, he could lose all three House votes.

“He simply can’t afford that risk right now,” our D.C. strategist advised. “There’s all downside with no upside in this for Trump.”

Some South Carolina insiders point to McMaster’s cozy BFF relationship with Trump as evidence that the official nod will eventually go Evette’s way. However, rumors are circling that McMaster doesn’t have the presidential ear all to himself these days as he did during Trump’s first term — rumors McMaster’s camp strongly denies.

However, some in-the-know observers point to another recent Trump endorsement as a sign the president is staying out of the gubernatorial primary.

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“Two words: Cody Simpson,” a Republican national pollster told us. “That says everything you need to know.”

The executive director of the South Carolina Farm Service Agency is a McMaster favorite. Just days ago, he received Trump’s blessing for his bid to move up the agricultural ladder.   

“When did a president of the United States ever give a hoot in hell about a state agriculture commissioner’s race?” the pollster explained. “It’s as plain as the nose on your face. Trump has told McMaster, ‘Sorry, Henry. I’m not going to back anyone down there. But you get Cody as a consolation prize.’”     

So, that’s how it stands in a race now less than four months from primary day and—almost as importantly—barely one month away from the March 16, 2026 opening of the two-week candidate filing window. In a race where “undecided” remains a strong contender in GOP gubernatorial polls could that, coupled with the absence of a Trump endorsement, tempt a dark horse candidate to enter the race, much the same way Upstate businessman John Warren did in 2018?

As Trump himself would say, “Stay tuned.”

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR…

J. Mark Powell is an award-winning former TV journalist, government communications veteran, and a political consultant. He is also an author and an avid Civil War enthusiast. Got a tip or a story idea for Mark? Email him at mark@fitsnews.com.

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