LATEST “FIRST IN THE SOUTH” POLLING SHOWS FLUID PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY …
GOP frontrunner Donald Trump continues to enjoy a big lead in early-voting South Carolina, but U.S. Senator Ted Cruz is mounting a ferocious challenge. Meanwhile retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson‘s campaign is in freefall – due in no small part to his crumbling support among evangelical voters in the Palmetto State.
From where are we drawing these conclusions? The latest edition of The Winthrop Poll, released this week.
According to the survey, Trump recorded the support of 24 percent of likely GOP voters – ahead of Cruz (16 percent) Carson (14 percent), U.S. Senator Marco Rubio (11 percent) and former Florida governor Jeb Bush (9 percent).
Meanwhile a new Fox News poll of South Carolina also released this week showed Trump drawing 35 percent support – putting him ahead of Carson (15 percent), Cruz (14 percent), Rubio (14 percent) and Bush (5 percent).
Here’s a look at the last year’s worth of aggregate polling data (including these two new surveys) courtesy of Real Clear Politics …
(Click to enlarge)
(Graph via)
As you can see, Bush was the early South Carolina frontrunner – along with Wisconsin governor Scott Walker, who has since dropped out of the race.
“Trump leads across multiple categories of voters from a high of 35 percent among those who wish to create a database of Muslims in the U.S. to a low of 22 percent among evangelical Christians, who will make up nearly 60 percent of the S.C. GOP Presidential Primary electorate,” said Winthrop political scientist Scott Huffmon. “Ted Cruz is tied with Ben Carson at 17 percent among evangelicals. This is a significant drop for Carson among evangelicals. He registered 33 percent support among this group in a Monmouth Poll a month ago. It is worth noting that 1 in 5 evangelicals remain undecided.”
Also worth noting? The two candidates who have catered almost exclusively to evangelicals – former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee and former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania – are both completely out of contention in South Carolina.
Huckabee – who nearly won South Carolina eight years ago – is polling at just two percent, the same level of support as home state U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham. Meanwhile Santorum was one of three “Republican” candidates who failed to register any support.
Winthrop’s latest poll surveyed 828 likely GOP primary voters between November 30 and December 7 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. Obviously that’s before Trump dropped his latest bombshell on the presidential race – a call for the suspension of all Muslim immigration into the United States.
Fox’s poll surveyed 801 likely GOP primary voters between December 5-8 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.
69 comments
And Fox has him at 35%. Donaldo is going to cruz through SC with a stunning victory. And Haley will once again have “egg” on her face. Donald has taken over the GOP, and there’s nothing, not a thing, they can do about it.
“egg” on her face
Beats some of the stuff she has had blown on her face
Like what? Kitty fur? Mayo? Mustard? Coca Cola?
Mayo! That would probably be the closest approximation, appearancewise anyhow.
Great, no turkey sandwich today. Guess it’s crackers and cheese.
You know.That white stuff,from the purple-headed yogurt-slinger..
Funny! The milquetoast putz’s like Lindseypoo Graham and Mick Dickveiny are on board to lynch Trump because he speaks the truth, yet the citizenry realizes Trump is right. I love it !!!!
It is unconstitutional not to protect America. Obama, Hillary, and the Republican establishment RINO’s that think Donald Trump is wrong are the enemy within.
They are being negligent and not diligent in keeping the American citizens safe, as The .Constitution of the United States requires them to do so as public servants.
They are being reckless.
Your grasp of the Constitution is about equal to your grasp of punctuation and grammar.
You could offer him a copy of Strunk and White.That’s a classic.
I believe Trump will win in SC. I will be good for the party and good for America.
Rafael Cruz however is a disaster. We just don’t need a foreigner as President. It is not time for the first hispanic President when we are fighting to get hispanic immigration under control. Not only that he was born in Canada. He was a Canadian Citizen until two years ago. His father is a former Cuban Communist, who admits he came to this country illegally. What does it take to convince the political establishment that anyone is not better than Trump.
I have no problem with a Hispanic, so long as he is not one of the (apparent majority) Hispanics who believes the entirety of Mexico and Central America has a birthright to invade our country with no regard for our immigration laws, such as Rubio.
All Puerto Ricans by birth are American Citizens. No problems with them or any of the many Hispanics born here to legal parents, often from families that have been here for generations if they desire to chase that office.
The thing I find disturbing about Cruz are the allegations about ties his wife has to some of the same common threads with establishment/NWO political scum such as has plagued this country for far too long.
Jimmy Carter did the same thing Trump is suggesting to the Iranians after they took our people hostage in 79. WOW , he was a hero. FDR did the same thing to Germans, Japanese and Italians during WWII. The more Trump stirs the pot and bitch slaps the establishment the more respect I and many many others gain for him. I heard talk over last weekend of a fifty state sweep. The more he is proven right the higher his numbers. I want to see those big gold letters across the façade of 1600 Penn. Ave. LOL Trump 16.
The impossible exists — millions of enemies of America, MARXIST leftists, sitting in high positions, among us, who have openly declared war on this Republic, and who have for decades done everything in their power to destroy this country — they continue to be free in their treason, and nobody, not law enforcement, not to the People, lays a finger on them, to fix anything.
The PEOPLE believe Trump WILL fit it.
Trump will Fit it? You mean Trump will FITS it.
‘fix’ it…
Then, the PEOPLE are idiots.
They voted for a radical Islamist sympathizer twice and we can blame public education,the state controlled universities and the MSM for that.Those same folks however have seen the damage he has inflicted on this great nation and the desire he has to flood this Judeo Christian nation with Muslims that can’t be vetted.
Change is a coming.
Oh yeah, that’s true.
You think a majority of Obama voters are going to vote for Trump? Unless Obama swept the white, working class male group with a HS education age 50 up, then I don’t think it is Obama voters who are supporting him.
Obama gets to serve 8 years and his health care reform is still kicking, no amount of repeal efforts or supreme court challenges has changed it. Get used to it.
Trump (and Cruz) tap into growing anti-establishment sentiments held by many evangelical Christians. Not only are conservative Christians solidly Republican, they are also fierce traditionalists who feel that their values are increasingly under assault by modern society.
Republican establishment would be WISE to heed the warning from its base of voters.
You mean they feel under siege? Like Puritans in the 1790s?
It still eats the lunch of many that they can no longer legally torture and kill Witches.
Puritans suffered much more persecution in 1600’s England than any “witches” did in Salem. Why do yiu think they came to America?
Yes they did.Good point.I read this in 3rd grade:
https://sites.google.com/a/email.cpcc.edu/desert-storm/home/escaping-religious-persecution
Pilgrims and Puritans came specifically to practice religious beliefs freely and to spread the gospel. In the 1500s England broke away from the Roman Catholic Church and formed its own church called the Church of England. However, the Separatists also known as the Pilgrims wanted nothing to do with that church. And as a result they were persecuted and harassed by followers of the new Church of England and accused of being traitors of the state. Many of these people feared for their lives, so under the leadership of William Bradford the Separatist decided to leave and go to a land where they could worship freely. In order to accomplish this new mission they sought the permission of the Virginia Company to establish their new home in this new land. Once they got permission the Pilgrims set sail in September 1620 on the Mayflower.
And got lost, ended up in Provincetown, started a gay colony, then finished off in a free love hippie commune in Plymouth.
To torture Witches?
:-D
They came to America to expresses and expose their religion without the government interfering. It is too bad modern day evangelicals do not understand that.
That is exactly what Evangelicals do understand.
Nope. They want government to support their view of religion and no others.
Nudist colony.
They sailed in on the May Deflowered.
There may be a fifty state Trump sweep… in the Republican primaries.
Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Obama etc. Are all disgusting. Jeb wants to allow the Mexicans to stay because he is married to one. Marco Rubio is Spanish and wants illegals to stay. Obama is Muslim and wants more Muslims. How would they feel if Trump ONLY allowed Billionaires to come in. It’s also so funny that everyone wants the constitution upheld all of a sudden.
Trump is the ONLY NON – RACIST in the whole damn bunch! Get ‘er done Trump ! ! !
Funny, my daughter asked me last night if I thought Trump was a racist. I don’t think he is. I think he’s an opportunist.
“Racist” is a very difficult term to apply or not apply to people.
I’ve always thought that most everyone is racist. A simple acknowledgement of differences by color/region of the world, etc. et al on the surface can make one a “racist” by simply acknowledging a race.
If we use “hatred” as the metric, that might be more clear. But usually it’s applied to white’s more than other colors/races.(and I don’t buy that just “whites” hate other races more or less than other races)
The thing is though, with around 95% of African Americans having voted for Obama last election, how can you say they didn’t consider race as a factor?
The word “racist” probably should be associated strictly with hate.
I don’t think Donald Trump hates “Muslims” or Middle Easterners, I don’t even think he’s trying to be an “opportunist”.
I actually believe him when he says “we have to figure out why”. To me, it’s obvious….70 years of interference in Middle Eastern politics has brought the proverbial chickens home to roost.
But to Trump, & many others, this is not obvious. Also, many just flat our disagree with the CIA “blowback” concept/term.(including Hillary Clinton, who is very war hawkish/Neocon as well)
I actually think it would be good for the US gov’t to take a “timeout” on immigration so that the topic can be examined more thoroughly.
93% voted for Kerry and 95% voted for Gore. Neither of them are black. Now that said, the 2008 election, 99% voted for Obama. I’m guessing (since I’m not black) the reason for that number is -This was a historical event that a black man was a Presidential nominee and war fatigue.
93%, 95% or 99%…that is beyond my comprehension, dictators receive those kind of results..
It is true that 59 voting divisions in Philadelphia recorded no votes for Mitt Romney.
snoopes
To be honest, how Republicans go about getting the minority vote is atrocious most times.
If that’s really the case just look at their plight the Democrats are doing a great job for them.
I think the greatest example I can provide is how some Republicans liken taking welfare to being a slave, as if black people who have been on some form of welfare at some point in their lives are going to appreciate the comparison. From think tanks to pundits to memes to internet comments this comparison is made all the time. It is probably the single most tone deaf thing the Republican party has ever perpetuated, but it still circulates even today.
http://www.nationalreview.com/article/420807/scapegoat-strife-black-community-thomas-sowell
In general, the way the Republicans talk about problems in the black community as if they’ve got it all figured out for them turns off a ton of black people really damn fast, so they just need to cut it out altogether.
It would be better if Republicans focused on a message that simply said, we want you to be able to succeed and be self sufficient, and present policies that will do just that. Drop all the rhetoric that comes across as negative, stereotyping, demonizing, and dehumanizing. If you focus on maximizing the positives the negatives will decrease on their own.
Don’t disagree much, maybe a few points but Democrats haven’t helped them.
What policies should be presented?
All valid points. Kudos.
I was using shorthand. I agree with your point that, at some level, we are all racist. In fact, I think it important that we acknowledge that fact, and move past wielding that word like a cudgel.
All of which represent countries we were at “war” with. Trump is suggesting a ban on immigration based on religion. That’s a whole different can of worms and about the most unconstitutional thing you could dream up for a presidential candidate to say. You guys do know there is more to the constitution than the 2nd Amendment, right?
Nothing would be complete in this conversation without a nice second amendment pot shot.
The Constitution actually gives expressed and plenary executive powers to the president to restrict immigration of any specified alien groups for any purpose in the national interest. It won’t be as simple as sending away anybody that says they are Muslim, because of course many would then just lie. It would have to be tied to country of origin. This is not to mention the fact that foreigners overseas aren’t granted US Constitutional rights because they are not even residents.
We are at war. The difference in this case is that we are not at war with one specific country or another and therefore it’s not as simple as banning this or that nationality. If we were at war with a Christian inspired ideology and Trump suggested a temporary ban on Christian immigration, you would be absolutely fine with that.
If we were at war with a Christian inspired ideology and Trump suggested
a temporary ban on Christian immigration, you would be absolutely fine
with that.
How do you know that? I wouldn’t be fine with it at all. There are hundreds of millions of both Muslims and Christians and neither are responsible for the few radical extremists that go out and kill people from time to time.
There is a huge difference between scrutinizing people coming from countries with a significant ISIS or Al Queda presence and scrutinizing any Muslim born anywhere under any circumstances.
The second amendment is the most important. It insures all the rest. That being said the Muslim “religion” is both a religion and a method of government. Without separating the two . Sharia law is both political and religious. In order to ban one you have to ban both. Tough shit. Trump has the right idea.
Apples & oranges.
Doesn’t the Winthrop Poll bust apart the liberal left and Fits view of Evangelical Christians as mind numbed low information robots, who fawn over any candidate who speaks out about his faith or targets Muslims.
“When asked if Christians in America experience discrimination, 46% of poll respondents said they see a great deal of discrimination. Only 17% said little or no and 38% said some discrimination.” Christians realize that Muslims are only the first target of the reactionary populists. This poll showed that Trump had the least support among Evangelical Christians than any other group.
But Evangelical Christians did not throw there support to Huckaby, Santorum, or Carson, who pander to their faith. If you ask me they seem to be a lot more educated and sophisticated than Fits or the MSM gives them credit for.
Other Notes of interest from the Winthrop Poll
Haley had more support than any one else at 81% among Republican voters.
“Huffmon noted, “While some had speculated that Governor Haley’s stand on the Confederate Flag this summer might hurt her with the Republican base, her approval of the S.C. GOP core – likely Republican voters – is as strong, or stronger, than ever.”
Game ender for Nikki’s NATIONAL political ambitions (true or not).These allegations would destroy a Republican Party national ticket:
“We never took our clothes off that first night, but the physical relationship between us progressed much faster than I expected. After sliding the front seats of her SUV as far back as they would go, Nikki climbed on top of me – rubbing her crotch back and forth over the growing bulge in my pants while I groped her ass and ran my hands through her hair and up and down her back.”
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/02/08/nikki-haley-affair-rumors_n_819824.html
81% and that lie has been out 5 years and your link is four years old. Evangelicals are the most supportive of her.
NOBODY outside of South Carolina knows of these allegations.She won because her opponents were socialists.The voters of South Carolina voted AGAINST her opponents/Obama, NOT for her.
Same with Sanford.If she is a national political candidate, she would be savaged by the Democrats and MSM.
She didn’t just get votes. She has a higher favorable/approval than anyone else, Trump, Tim Scott … anyone.
Not a worry, no one outside of SC even knows who Nikki Haley is.
But Evangelical Christians did not throw there support to Huckaby, Santorum, or Carson, who pander to their faith.
You do realize that Huckabee and Santorum both had their time in the sun (victories, not just leading in a poll) in years past. Carson led among evangelicals too, until he finally said too many dumb things.
As a Christian I think Christians who think they are discriminated against because they are Christians are full of crap. They are just parroting what some Fox News nut told them. My god the vast majority of people in this country self identify as Christian. I would love to hear about these specific incidences of discrimination. Oh and not letting Christians discriminate is not discrimination.
There is an effort to force religious expression out out public veiw. It use to be that sex was private and religion was public, now it is reversed. San Bernardino victims were at a CHRISTMAS party. Obama refers to it as a celebration of the holidays in his recent national address. He can’t say the word Christian or Christmas. I have never been offended by the use of Hanukkah, or Ramadan. That is true diversity, not banning public religious expression.
http://www.redflagnews.com/headlines-2015/barack-obama-bans-entire-military-from-saying-christmas
Very good.
Check Snopes that article is bunk. Most of it originated with Todd Starnes at Fox News, if you see his name as author one needs to fact check it. You can find plenty of transcripts if you use search where the President has used the word Christian and Merry Christmas.
In summary, President Obama did not issue a “blanket ban” on the word Christmas for military servicemen in November 2015 or at any other time. In 2013, a DEOMI officer recommended soldiers at Camp Shelby call a Christmas event a “holiday game,” due to a longstanding Department of Defense general policy about the armed forces not endorsing any specific religion. The then-exaggerated claim was revived in 2015, but at no point has use of the word “Christmas” been banned in the military.
Thank you, the truth is not that hard to find as long as fox is not your only source of information.
Oh, please. Give me a break. You have never been discriminated against because you are a Christian and you know it. Just as I have never been discriminated against on the basis of my Christianity. If anything I have benefited from being a Christian in ways other than my salvation. I mean I get at least 5 or 6 solicitations a month with pictures of fish in the corner. Do you think those people would be doing that if they thought they would get fewer customers.
I just attended my town’s three day Christmasville Festival, and watched our Christmas parade. Did anybody object, no. I can only imagine the uproar if it had been a Ramadan parade.
As for saying happy holidays, who the heck cares? Say whatever you want. No one is stopping you. Let everybody else say what they want. There are like 10 religious holidays in December. Do people have to go out of their way to acknowledge each one. Get over your martyr complex. You are in the majority. No one is refusing to seat you in a Restaurant because you are a Christian. And if they are, good for you. They obviously recognized you as a Christian, and let’s hope that is because you were doing something good for someone else.
I can tell you being a Christian in this SC county is a plus. When I moved here many years ago, I was surprised how one of the first questions asked when I met someone new was, What church do you attend? It is common knowledge that unless you attend one of several Baptist churches here or related to someone who does, your chances of landing a good local job are slim.
That’s my secret weapon, you go Donald!
None of that matters the GOP (and the Dems) are clubs. They will hand their nomination to Jeb. For so it is written.
Let’s see..Jeb is surging, too…..from3% to 4%
The Silent majority ain’t so silent any more….