IS THE RISE OF “THE DONALD” ALSO FUELING HIS DECLINE?
|| By FITSNEWS || Billionaire real estate mogul and 2016 presidential candidate Donald Trump is making a big splash in the “Republican” primary … with recent national polling suggesting he has emerged as the leading alternative to GOP establishment frontrunner Jeb Bush.
No really … that’s happening.
But is Trump’s bombastic lack of a filter – discussed in this column by our very own Taylor Brown – a good thing? More to the point: Is the political incorrectness fueling his rise among “Republican” primary voters going to help or hurt him in the event he is able to pull off a miracle and capture the GOP nomination?
According to Daniel Hoicowitz – the founding partner of Red-Data – “Trump may have GOP support, but nationally, the probability of him winning the White House shrinks each day.”
Hoicowitz bases this assessment on “opinion mining or sentiment analysis” – which itself is based on his analysis of Trump’s tweets. Or rather tweets about Trump.
“A major uptick in the negative public sentiment towards Donald Trump is becoming apparent,” he noted. “Very negative sentiment has grown by 46 percent and negative sentiment by 14 percent.”
There’s even a corresponding graph …
(Click to enlarge)
(Graph: via Red-Data)
“Winning the Republican Presidential nomination is no easy task, but the most important prize in politics next year is the White House,” Hoicowitz continued. “While The Donald has found much success in the business world, he does not seem to grasp the fact that public opinion is not for sale.”
Ouch …
We don’t know whether to make heads or tails of this firm’s methodology (or the firm itself), but there is some legitimacy to the overall assessment.
Trump’s rise among certain subsets of the GOP electorate isn’t likely to correspond with a broader electoral appeal … in fact it’s likely to cost him support.
Now, is that a commentary on Trump as a candidate? Or, as we’ve pointed out, selective enforcement of political correctness?
Let the debate begin …
20 comments
Time wounds all heels. (Dorothy Parker)
“he does not seem to grasp the fact that public opinion is not for sale.”
That’s a debatable point…but let’s say he’s right and expound on it more:
Public opinion may not be for sale(though I doubt it), but those that get elected by public opinion most certainly are.
TBG wonders how many actual voters tweet, or even know what a tweet is, for that matter.
Still…. it’s too early to tell……(fill in your own thoughts here)
The above may be the biggest political lie I’ve ever read.
The explain why it cost $1,000,000,000 to run a presidential campaign? Ads, speeches, dinners, BBQs and signs are all used to sway public opinion and they cost $$$.$$s.
If Trump spent a 1,000,000,000 he still wouldn’t win.
The smartest thing ever to come out of your mouth was a dildo. But we know you like the real thing more.
I can tell by reading your comment, you’re a not very bright. Show your comment to family and freinds. Maybe they can get you some help. But, I don’t think you will. Admitting a problem can be embarrassing, but it would be courageous.
Trump is the MESSIAH!!!!!
Even Ted Cruz is defending him: http://www.politico.com/story/2015/07/ted-cruz-defends-donald-trump-slams-washington-on-immigration-119726.html
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Here’s how this might just play out. If your Donald Trump you don’t want to invest energy in this without a return. If he ultimately loses the GOP primaries, and he most certainly will, his brand is damaged. But, if he turns that around and runs as a Perot-independent, and can capture as much as Perot did, which is very likely, the can claim a victory, and not have damaged his brand (in fact he’d help it a little). You can picture him after losing the 2016 General declaring victory, how he did better than even Perot. He’s in the history books, his brand is untarnished – and – Hillary is the first woman President.
It is sad to see the man being put down because he has a spine and the balls to speak the truth.
No, he’s being put down because he is an obnoxious blowhard who looks like a total dipshit.
I want to shit on your face :D
You sound like the typical deviant ‘conservative’. Shouldn’t you be more of a Huckabee gal?
Between Trump’s racist tirade and the confederate flag, republicans are going to have a very hard time finding enough white bigots to get them elected. They are officially the party of racists now, in the public’s eye.
Its sad to see you so fucked up in the head, too.
Reality = fucked up in the head. Yup, you are a typical conservative.
A check of his facebook page between today and yesterday, the age has increased by at least 1,000,000 likes in a 24hr period. Many polls have shown that 2/3rd or more of Americans want illegal aliens deported fast.