Vincent Sheheen cannot beat Nikki Haley in the S.C. gubernatorial election this November … at least not in any scenario that we can envision.
The Democratic State Senator trails Haley – a fourth-term state Representative from Lexington County – by fourteen points according to the latest poll from Rasmussen Reports. That’s a lot of ground for a Democrat to make up in a “Republican” state, particularly given the current political headwinds facing elected officials with fiscally liberal voting records.
Having said that, Sheheen is doing a pretty good job taking the fight to Haley on her signature issue of government transparency – with a sympathetic legacy media giving his efforts front-page news coverage (click here to see what we’re talking about). Meanwhile, efforts by the Republican Party to hang the “L” word around Sheheen’s neck have been largely unsuccessful (even though we’ve covered the GOP statements).
And for her part, Haley appears perfectly content to sit on her lead – despite our belief that she should articulate an agenda (preferably one beyond sound bites) in order to fully capitalize on the tailwinds available to elected officials with fiscally conservative voting records.
Yet while the policy discourse in this election remains disappointingly devoid of any real substance, Sheheen has beaten Haley to the punch in the PR war – while using her own issue against her. First, Sheheen disclosed ten years worth of income tax records – a sore subject for Haley given her previous failure to disclose more than $40,000 in income received from a company with business before the state.
Haley reported the income to the IRS but didn’t publicly disclose it with the S.C. State Ethics Commission, exploiting a loophole in financial disclosure law that she ironically wants to close.
Speaking of exploiting loopholes, earlier this year Haley used a legislative exemption from the state’s Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) and refused to provide copies of emails and hard drive data from her computers to reporters investigating allegations of marital infidelity against her – allegations Haley has strongly denied.
Last week, Sheheen sought to capitalize on this issue by preemptively releasing his own Senate emails – and computer hard drive data – to reporters.
“In order to restore trust, honesty and integrity to our state, we as candidates must be transparent in our actions,” Sheheen said. “I have released my legislative emails and I challenge Representative Haley to do the same. Candidates must practice what we preach. It is about a true and open government.”
Haley tells The (Columbia, S.C.) State newspaper that her campaign is “compiling the documents.”
Obviously, at some point Haley’s campaign will shift the focus of the race back to dollars and cents – specifically showcasing her record of protecting taxpayers versus Sheheen’s record of pillaging them. In a “pocketbook election” (i.e. an election in which swing voters are going to overwhelmingly support the candidate they trust to spend less of their money) that’s solid gold real estate.
Still, transparency is the issue that transformed Haley into a legitimate statewide contender (along with some early earned media) – meaning it is central not only to her gubernatorial campaign, but to her very political identity. The fact that Sheheen appears to have successfully taken it off the table this early in the race is a major win for his campaign.
In fact, how ironic is it that Haley must now try and change the subject from the very issue that birthed her candidacy?
By Florida Watching August 9, 2010 at 6:53 am
Transparency is an interesting endeavor. You have the cartoon of Robert Ariail, in which Nikki is all blacked out. And then you have the “wishful” cartoon of Nikki naked, wrapped in plastic like a sandwich. Her refusal to release emails reminds us of the Ariail cartoon. Her alleged multiple affairs reminds us of the “wishful” cartoon. Nikki is toast. The GOP has to engage PLAN B immediately, before they implode.
By Florida Watching August 9, 2010 at 6:55 am
FITS – Nice upgrade, ask THE STATE how they post comments so quickly. Nikki has very little time left, we need to respond quickly.
By Brandon August 9, 2010 at 8:24 am
Transparency = See-through panties
By Florida Watching August 9, 2010 at 9:01 am
Brandon – Sic would know……….Or Larry………..Or Irish fuzzy face…………..
By EB August 9, 2010 at 9:33 am
“Meanwhile, efforts by the Republican Party to hang the “L” word around Sheheen’s neck have been largely unsuccessful….”
When you are polling at 35% in South Carolina, it is not an easy task to push those numbers much lower. Those numbers reflect support coming from within the base and not many independents and Republicans. Compare Sheheen’s numbers to Al Green’s numbers; enuf said.
Haley – 49%, Sheheen – 35%; seems to me you don’t do much at this point unless Haley sees some erosion in her numbers. I think she would like to see the number go above 50% and maintain at that level or higher. Sixteen percent of undecided voters could be troublesome for Haley with less than fifty percent.
Haley will probably let this shot from Sheheen ride itself out, see where the numbers are and then decide on a strategy.
…”showcasing her record of protecting taxpayers versus Sheheen’s record of pillaging them…”
That’s what I would do if I were campaigning. I live in a county with some portions represented by Sheheen and Representative Vick. They have articles in the local papers concerning their support for ever-increasing budgets for education and social programs. It’s become a laughing stock among the taxpaying citizens.
In their articles, both referenced “steady and ever-increasing revenue streams” to fund education and social programs. The government should fund education and social programs properly. But, when it seems to be your constant theme, you are at jeopardy of losing all the others folks.
How about once, just once, pen an article that thanks all the tax paying citizens of your districts for funding your “buying of votes.”
It could be a bad year for the democrats. There is the possibility they will wake up the morning of the first Wednesday of November and they have not won a single state-wide office and they have also lost the John Spratt seat.
By Gen. Longstreet August 9, 2010 at 10:00 am
My gut tells me that Mr. Sheheen will, in the end, be hoisted on his own transparency petard. His cries for accountability will inevitably force him to admit that, as a state senator, he supported ObamaCare, the federal stimulus, growing Medicaid, abortion rights and increasing taxes and the he opposed spending caps, immigration enforcement and Voter ID. Ms. Haley will pound the young man mercilessly on the air and on the ground. Mr. Sheheen, like Bobby Lee, fails to see the whole battlefield clearly. Strike the tent.
By ArtVandelay August 9, 2010 at 10:09 am
The fact that Ms. Haley virtually cannot lose this race unless she makes a major gaffe is exactly what is wrong with SC politics and this state in general.
By irs August 9, 2010 at 10:20 am
All I want to know is how Nikki can afford a $300,000.00 home with a $110,000.00 line of credit when one of her tax records said her household income was $40,000.00. The interest on the house mortgage was $20,000.00. How do you make ends meet? I bet money was coming from somewhere. Consulting fees? LOL I am sure the irs would like to know.
I don’t want a gov. with finanical problems. There would be too much temptation to use their position for persoanl gain. Oh yeah I forgot, her BFF Sarah Palin is cashing in on her 15 minutes of fame.
“But Haley’s most recent disclosure raised more questions.
They showed that Haley, who touts her talents as an accountant as a qualification to run state government, twice paid her taxes more than a year late. They also showed Haley – campaigning as a fiscal conservative – has been heavily indebted, buying a $300,000 home and adding a line of credit – of up to $110,000 – while her family, in one year, made barely $40,000.
Asked how her family could afford that much debt – paying $20,000 a year in mortgage interest alone –”
Read more: http://www.thestate.com/2010/08/08/1408618/sheheen-is-haley-being-open.html?storylink=pluck_commented#ixzz0w7P8JARx
All I want to know is how Nikki can afford a $300,000.00 home with a $110,000.00 line of credit when one of her tax records said her household income was $40,000.00. The interest on the house mortgage was $20,000.00. How do you make ends meet? I bet money was coming from somewhere. Consulting fees? LOL I am sure the irs would like to know.
I don’t want a gov. with finanical problems. There would be too much temptation to use their position for persoanl gain. Oh yeah I forgot, her BFF Sarah Palin is cashing in on her 15 minutes of fame.
By Florida Watching August 9, 2010 at 10:40 am
The GOP is scandal wary. Look at the past year. Look at Sanfraud. Any number of the following could derail Nikki on a national level.
- Proven sex scandals
- Unethical practices – hospital “fundraising”
- Unethical practices – engineering “consulting”
- Unprofesstional boasts – “accounting” when not certified
- Unprofessional conduct – missing meetings and votes
- Unprofessional productivity – Sponsoring one bill
- Non-transparency – Hiding emails on government computers
- Religious failings – Nobody has seen her at Mt. Horeb.
- Religious failings – Changed Sikh name to fit on yard signs?
- Religious failings – Donated 0.5 percent to the church.
Collectively, this is a disaster. What is the GOP waiting for???
By Florida Watching August 9, 2010 at 10:49 am
irs – The only possible answer is that she was given a monetary gift to cover expenses. Where did it come from? Were gift taxes applied? Was this properly reported?
Don’t tell me her house will be the first thing that clobbers her..
By Philip Branton August 9, 2010 at 11:02 am
Steps to take for a Sheheen Victory……
Do the following….!!
1) Announce that you are going to take a PERSONAL trip out to the AMES Research Facility and that you are going to take Philip Branton, Richard Todd, and Mayor Tim Goodwin and US Rep Jim Clyburn with you to better understand the benefits of http://www.unimodal.com !!
2) Announce that you are going to go see Capt Urbon at Spawar Atlantic to get a formal introduction to Qinetiq and take Tim Goodwin, Philip Branton and Hamilton Davis from the CCL and Mr. Fennell from the P&C with you. Be ready to discuss a working relationship with the James CLYBURN Transportation research Center at SCSU.
3) Announce that You as the Governor of SC will approach the Citizens of Johns Island and James Island about becoming “Transportaton Partners” and “Trash ENERGY PARTNERS” and being a model for the rest of the STATE to reduce mutual costs.
4)Sheheen……..do the residents of SC know how you THINK….!?!? Stay out in front to lead….or wallow in the rear to follow WHO…!?!
Governor ….what signal would these “annoucements” send to the BEACH COMPANY, Fennell, Mayor Summey, Mayor Riley, CSX, BMW, GE, Norfolk-Southern, Jim DEMINT, Tim Scott…..and ol’ BUCK LIMEHOUSE..!!?
Lets GO…!!!!!
We just had 10 people executed in Afghanistan this weekend..!
Do you know HOW to WIN a WAR…..!!!! How do you win a Governor’s RACE..??
“Follow the Money” and cut off……WHO..!!!??
Vince do you THINK like Jerry JONES…??
How receptive would SCSU…be..??
How about the SCRA…???
The Jasper Port…???
Does Vince really WANT to win…??
By Florida Watching August 9, 2010 at 11:14 am
Wow – Great Comments. Looks like my crude and rude one-liners are out. (Unless someone comes up with Nikki in a shower scene or high and tight red thong.)
By Jacob August 9, 2010 at 11:28 am
The good thing for Nikki is that things like this tend not to have an effect on the election outcome unless they are properly timed. Had Sen. Sheheen offered any sort of real vision for the state, he could have used something like this in late October to erode her numbers.
However, he hasn’t offered anything at all. People identify her with fiscal conservatism and libertarianism (whether it is true or not, who knows), while they don’t quite know what to identify him with. At the end of the day, a candidate who is unknown doesn’t beat a candidate who is more known by talking about tax returns and emails. The only way he could beat her would be to talk about issues, which is difficult when he doesn’t appear to have any real positions on issues.
Just like her campaign said, is he pro-choice or pro-life? Where does he stand on immigration? Where does he stand on healthcare? Why hasn’t he discussed education since getting the nomination? These are the questions that Trav called a “distraction”, but most South Carolinians see these sorts of things as the issues, and talking about tax returns and emails as the real distraction.
He will be quite lucky to get beat by less than 10%.
By wife in Lexington August 9, 2010 at 11:49 am
If you like the Nikki show so far, you’re raelly gonna love whats coming. And it ain’t pretty. The GOP needs to denounce her as soon as possible as they will be seriously burned, and they know it. You better be doing more extensive background checks. GOP, you have been warned.
By Florida Watching August 9, 2010 at 11:58 am
Sorry – one last one-liner. Anything think that Nikki can even work a thong??? Those mile high legs are a plus, but I don’t believe Sikh’s are big on hair removal.
Just saying.
By 29407 August 9, 2010 at 12:29 pm
Haley is sinking, hence this posting. The best way for Haley to win is to invent a time machine. Every day more and more republicans say they cannot stand to support her. She already peaked, the question is whether or not Sheheen can close the gap in time – no one will deny it is a tough climate for a Democrat but Sheheen will have the money to push this to November. Will is a lot of things but he is not an idiot, he either senses the tide or got wind of some new polling data and it is not great news for the Haley camp.
By Florida Watching August 9, 2010 at 12:34 pm
wife – Not sure who you are……..but wow, what a tease. Can you give us a hint? Curious minds need to get the popcorn ready.
By crackahasscrackah August 9, 2010 at 12:36 pm
Will – maybe you need new glasses if you truly can’t envision Sheheen winning.
No doubt Haley is the favorite like any Republican nominee would be at this point in the process. But, come on Will – the 14 point lead is not the issue. Haley’s numbers are the issue. Haley is now below 50% for the first time in a Rasmussen poll(down from 52% from last month and 55% from the month before.) Vincent Sheheen – like any Democratic nominee with a pulse – is going to get at least 45% of the vote. The only issue in this campaign is whether he can pick up the other 5%. With each month’s Rasmussen poll, it looks more and more doable for Sheheen. If Haley drops another 3% in next month’s poll, then we will have a barnburner on our hands. At this point, Haley is the favorite but definitely not the prohibitive favorite she appeared to be in June.
By Florida Watching August 9, 2010 at 12:37 pm
Plus, Haley Supporters need to get their adult diapers ready as well. They seem to have difficulties with self-control.
By EB August 9, 2010 at 12:40 pm
Haley – 49%
Sheheen – 34%
DeMint – 58%
Greene – 21%
I think the above polling numbers reveals something that can not be too greatly overstated about the democrat’s chances in the election this year.
When your candidate for governor only out-polls Al Greene by thirteen points, it’s time to retake Politics 101.
Vince Sheheen seems to be a nice guy, an accomplished politician, if you are a democrat, and a veteran of past elections.
Al Greene; who treats English as a second language and he is not bi-lingual, tolerates conscious existence as a mere inconvenience to sleep or nap time, and can write all he knows about government and politics on a 3X5 card.(I take that back maybe he could utter all he knows) is in rival with Sheheen for the most popular democrat in the state.
Sheheen is trying desperately to keep this election a local(state) issue and taking it to Haley in a personal manner about her past actions and policies. Might cut into her numbers, might not. If that does not work, what does he do next?
Is he going to talk about his support for ObamaCare, call Obama in to campaign for him, bash Bush and blame him for the state of the economy, etc…?
NO, he has no other place to go.
I am not crazy about either one of these candidates. I would have picked someone else for the Republicans. But, Haley is infinitely more qualified with her plans and policies.
She needs to bring in some National issues to use against Sheheen. Obama, Healthcare, state of the economy, over-spent stimulus and debt..etc.. It should be easy to set up Obama, the democrats, Sheheen, nationally and locally as a tarnished brands.
By Faith August 9, 2010 at 12:42 pm
Wife in Lexington: what is coming? I sure would like to know. I hope it is the smoking gun the Sheheen needs.
By Huhhh??? August 9, 2010 at 12:45 pm
It will truly be a shame if(once, no, third again) some SC voters choose to listen to what they want to hear from a Republican candidate rather believe what their eyes are telling them about the candidate’s actions.
By Florida Watching August 9, 2010 at 12:46 pm
Jacob – I honestly believe that Nikki is gonna have to call for an urgent press conference. At that time she will resign as a candidate for personal reasons and for the sake of her family. No questions allowed, she will boogie to India.
The End
By Florida Watching August 9, 2010 at 1:16 pm
Still ….. some hot and steamy scandalous revelations would make the whole thing much more enjoyable. Heck, Clinton blessed us with an impeachment, rather than resigning in disgrace. Perhaps Nikki will bless us as well.
Here’s hoping for a Happy Ending.
By Florida Watching August 9, 2010 at 1:18 pm
wife – Quickly, does it have to do with sex, drugs, or money??? It has to be one of them. It always is.
By Oh.................. August 10, 2010 at 9:44 am
Check out the new Robert Ariail Cartoon.
By ceilidh10 August 10, 2010 at 10:48 am
Nikki, you can run but you cannot hide.
The natioanl media….Will’s new book….all will be revealed like it says in the Bible…..you are an arrogant upstart!
By randy August 10, 2010 at 11:42 am
Ms. Haley is much more transparent than another politician, who just happened to run for president on the grounds of promising transparency in government…
I wonder if America will ever find out just who was one Air Force One when it streaked over New York…transparency, anyone?
By Fred August 10, 2010 at 12:01 pm
Love the new Arial cartoon!
http://robertariail.com/2010/08/10/action-figures/
By Florida Watching August 10, 2010 at 1:05 pm
Nikki Nookie………..It’s gotta be good. Lots of talk……dirty talk……the really nasty throaty kind of stuff.
By Rick August 10, 2010 at 1:06 pm
Nikki can hide, but she can’t run.
By Crooner August 10, 2010 at 2:48 pm
No way Nikki lands the engineering consultancy or the lucrative hospital fundraising job without being a state representative. I’ll be first to admit that I’m a yellow dog democrat and wouldn’t vote for her even if she were squeaky clean. But someone who is clearly in public service for personal gain?
By eggaday August 10, 2010 at 3:15 pm
are either of these people really even campaigning yet?
how do you predict an election before the ” season” starts?
many many of our fellow yocal locals don’t even know either one of these candidates. they have not even begun to make up their mind, unless, these are the people who can only read the letter R and pull that lever repeatedly, despite past results.
I am waiting on a fabulous write in candidate to appear ( in my dreams).
By wife in Lexington August 11, 2010 at 11:45 am
When all is said and done, Haley will be lucky to serve on town coucil. If she loses, she may write a book, be a guest on talk shows, make a bunch of money and pay off her $400k home. I am amazed that she would drag her family through this. So much for family values. But Nikki, go calm your nerves,chant (ohm…) and do some yoga.