By FITSNews || It’s a foregone conclusion that S.C. Rep. Nikki Haley will trounce U.S. Rep. Gresham Barrett in Tuesday’s Republican runoff election, but how big will her margin of victory be?
Haley ran away from Barrett two weeks ago by a 49-22 percent margin and has since picked up the endorsement of third-place finisher S.C. Attorney General Henry McMaster, who captured 17 percent of the primary vote. Fourth-place finisher Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer – who has endorsed Barrett – received 13 percent of the primary vote.
Aside from a story about Haley’s failure to disclose some of her recent consulting income, there have been no major revelations over the last two weeks, and both Haley and Barrett have run predictable, disciplined and (for the most part) clean campaigns. That would lead us to believe that people’s perceptions about both candidates are unlikely to have changed.
Obviously, supporters of a defeated candidate don’t always follow that candidate’s endorsement recommendations, but if the roughly 30 percent of GOP voters who cast primary ballots for McMaster or Bauer split their runoff voters evenly, then Haley will beat Barrett by nearly a 2-to-1 margin – roughly 64-36 percent.
That would give her an even bigger margin of victory than the 2002 Republican gubernatorial runoff, when Mark Sanford pounded then-Lt. Gov. Bob Peeler by a 60-40 margin.
Our prediction?
Haley 62, Barrett 38.
What’s your guess? Post it in the comments section below …
By Jamie June 22, 2010 at 12:31 pm
61-39 Haley
By crackahasscrackah June 22, 2010 at 12:37 pm
FWIW -
HALEY 56
BARRETT 44
ARD 52
CONNOR 48
WILSON 51
LORD 49
ZAIS 55
MOFFLY 45
1st CD
SCOTT 53
THURMOND 47
4th CD
GOWDY 57
INGLIS 43
By Pam in SC June 22, 2010 at 12:39 pm
Just read where voting was steady, I predict Haley 65% to Barrets 35%,but since I didn’t vote for either who really cares what I think?
By SCvoter June 22, 2010 at 12:43 pm
You got that right Will. In spite of some weakness ( no one is perfect) she will trounce Shaheen also by 60-40
By Hypothesis Man June 22, 2010 at 1:05 pm
Learned folks say that Haley’s favorite “position” in the polls is getting 69 percent of the vote, which is very ambitious but no doubt highly rewarding.
By Billy Bob June 22, 2010 at 1:07 pm
My guess is: We’re screwed – one of them will win.
By ZZZZZZZZ !!!!!!!!!!! June 22, 2010 at 1:13 pm
Who cares!!!!! It is just another BS Republican scam to fool the dumb ass Republicans in South Carolina again who somehow believe that a Republican Paradise exists in South Carolina……..Reality is not a strong point to South Carolina Republicans
By Turd Ferguson June 22, 2010 at 1:14 pm
I smell a big victory here . . . larger than a thong.
Haley 65
Barrett 35
By south mauldin June 22, 2010 at 1:27 pm
Haley will get 60% of the vote. She’s getting my vote, so the train wreck will stay on the tracks a little longer. As long as that asshole Bill Connor loses I’ll be happy.
By David June 22, 2010 at 1:31 pm
Hey ZZZZZZ- we Republicans are the dumb asses? Tell me the name of your Senate candidate again? And answer honestly- did you vote for him? Will you vote for him in November? What was that first question I asked again?
By fred June 22, 2010 at 1:37 pm
Hypothesis Man aren’t you clever or perhaps just very very stupid. No just classless. Me thinks that a “guy” like you is just an old “foot tapper” in crap house.
By eggaday June 22, 2010 at 1:43 pm
reality is not even a point to SC Repuklicans
By Cancerman June 22, 2010 at 2:05 pm
BARRETT 54
HALEY 46
People dont trust a liar like Sanfraud.
By Lt. Col. Liar June 22, 2010 at 2:15 pm
Who will win the Lt. Gov. race? Predictions?
By crackahasscrackah June 22, 2010 at 2:28 pm
@ SCVoter:
You might want to rethink your prediction for November a little bit. A Democrat running for Governor starts with about 45% of the vote. A decent candidate with a decent message picks up another 2.5%. Its that last 2.5% that gets ‘em every time.
Here’s some data for you:
2006: Tommy Moore 45%
2002: Jim Hodges 47%
1998: Jim Hodges 53%
1994: Nick Theodore 48%
Sheheen starts out with a baseline of (dumbass Tommy Moore’s) 45% and will reach 47%-48% with a decent (Hodges ’02, Theodore ’94) campaign. 50% will be damn tough but not impossible (particularly if the GOP fails to mend its rather ugly open wounds).
By N. Dew Time June 22, 2010 at 2:39 pm
I’m just glad I get a redo. Now I can go today and vote against whomever most of the idiots in this state want to elect.
It’s worked really well so far…
By Rylyn June 22, 2010 at 2:40 pm
Barrett 51%
Haley 49%
Lord 57%
Wilson 43%
Ard 58%
Connor 42%
Moffley 37%
Zais 63%
By Susan June 22, 2010 at 2:41 pm
Gov. race is all but decided. The Lt. Gov. race is more interesting becaue it is so close. I predict Ard will win by a very narrow margin.
By Neocon June 22, 2010 at 3:00 pm
It would be so fu@king funny if Barrett beats the cum bucket……….
By countryboy June 22, 2010 at 3:03 pm
Hey ZZZZZZ – David beat me to the punch there asking who your US Senate candidate was and did you vote for him, since you obviously are a democrat. And a lot of us who now call ourselves Republicans called ourselves Democrats for decades (in my case 50 years), until the dumbass democrats elected a mixed race President who told us up front his dad was a MUSLIM from Kenya (plus all the other background). Have you heard the one about “glass houses”?
By countryboy June 22, 2010 at 3:10 pm
PS- Haley will beat Barrett easily despite all the last minute mud-slinging he has thrown at her. She-heen will be tougher to beat in November. Not because he is worth a crap but because he will get all the black vote (well 95% percent) plus all the liberal vote, plus all those who vote democrat just because he or she is democrat. But Haley will beat She-heen by a narrow margin, like 51-49.
BTW- Any guesses as to which region/country/continent the family name She-heen came from?
By jurisdoc June 22, 2010 at 3:25 pm
Countryboy, I’m a democrat. Didn’t vote for Green (and I am embarrassed about his victory) but I’d vote for him over Demint any day. At least he’ll just sit there and stutter, not causing any real harm like selling the country to BP ala Jim Demint.
And as much as I hate to play the race card, if you don’t like the dems b/c they elected a “mixed race” president, you are in fact a racist and I’m glad you found a home with the republicans. You’ll fit right in with Jakie Knotts and most of the others. I’m white, so I hear the jokes and comments people make when there are no blacks around – at least until I call them out.
By Muffin June 22, 2010 at 3:51 pm
Amen to Countryboy! What a damn mess . . . we got us a mixed race muslim as a president.
By Preston June 22, 2010 at 4:05 pm
countryboy, Sheheen would be an Irish surname.
Barrett 51%
Haley 49%
Ard 48%
Connor 52%
Lord 54%
Wilson 46%
Moffley 35%
Zais 65%
By Balsak Tee Baghar June 22, 2010 at 4:09 pm
I am seeing into the future!
Gresham Barrett can only sit idly by and watch Nikki do 69!
Happy victory day for those who take this position!
Palin-Haley 2012!
I can see India from my house!
By John Cattano June 22, 2010 at 4:19 pm
Haley 66%
Barrett 34%
Ard 53%
Connor 47%
Lord 50.1%
Wilson 49.9%
Moffly 52%
Zais 48%
Scott 59%
Thurmond 41%
By SnakeMD June 22, 2010 at 4:51 pm
Those negative Hail Mary TV spots by the Lord team are really shameless against Wilson. $50K is a lot of
duckies to spend on the last day couple of days of campaigning. You could have planted 5 more Alvin Greens with that kind of dough.
By Brian O'Connor June 22, 2010 at 5:01 pm
This is a very strange post. Why just the other day Sic was telling me that Haley gets 69 and that Barrett doesn’t get any.
Just sayin,
Brian O’Connor
http://www.RedDogReport.com
@RedDogReport
By crackahasscrackah June 22, 2010 at 5:05 pm
Sheheen is of Lebanese – not Irish – ancestry. His family were Christians in the old country (there are plenty of Christians in Lebanon – remember the Lebanese Christian Militias from the 80s). I don’t know how long the Sheheens have been in America, but they have been in Camden since the 19th Century. Next non-issue, please.
By jorge June 22, 2010 at 5:17 pm
I suspect the Haley/Barrett race will be a little less lop-sided than conventional wisdom holds.
I know that I voted for Haley in the primaries but today voted for Barrett after reconsidering her answers during the debate.
I will support whomever wins but I suspect the Democrats will have to really work hard to lose the governorship this year.
By ManWithoutaParty June 22, 2010 at 5:18 pm
I’m hoping Haley will 69 Palin and post it on the web. Finger lickin’ good!
By James the Foot Soldier June 22, 2010 at 5:32 pm
who cares…all Governor-elect Haley needs is 51….anything above that is wasted money that should be used elsewhere to reverse the dumbocrat regime…
By SC Moderate June 22, 2010 at 5:44 pm
Haley 68%
Barrett 32%
Ard 58%
Connor 42%
Lord 54%
Wilson 46%
Zais 52%
Moffly 48%
Thurmond 50.5%
Scott 49.5%
By southernmapart June 22, 2010 at 6:10 pm
Barrett will not get more than 25% of the vote, closer to 22%. Why? Because only the old and senile are voting for Barrett. That may sound a little ugly, but it is true.
By TaylorSC June 22, 2010 at 6:59 pm
Sorry, Southernmapart, but I think you have it backwards.
By Hypothesis Man June 23, 2010 at 11:12 am
Fred,
Here’s my response to your “classy” post: I think you’re mistaking me for your father.
By fred June 23, 2010 at 11:52 am
Hypothesis Man. Just as I suspected you are to young to vote. So my “classy” friend get a life, clean up your act and grow up.