States that historically vote Republican stand to gain presidential electors and seats in the U.S. House if preliminary numbers released by the U.S. Census Bureau hold.
Obviously, these anticipated pick-ups won’t impact the 2010 elections, but they could pose a grave danger to Democrats in election cycles to come … that is, assuming Republicans are able to locate the fiscal conservative credentials they lost under the leadership of RINOs like Newt Gingrich, George W. Bush and Ted Stevens.
Based on the Census Bureau’s final “pre-count estimate,” states set to pick up House seats and presidential electors include Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, South Carolina, Texas (three seats), Utah and Washington. Of those eight states, only Washington has been reliably Democratic in recent years.
States set to lose House seats and presidential electors include Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, Ohio (two seats) and Pennsylvania. Of those states, only Louisiana has been reliably Republican in recent years.
Additionally, for years Democrats have counted on population surges in California (14% growth in the 1990′s, 26% growth in the 1980′s, 19% growth in the 1970′s and 27% growth in the 1960′s) to pick up the slack for losses in other “blue” regions of the country. This year, with California’s growth in single digits, the Golden State could end up not gaining a seat in Congress for the first time since 1920.
Those numbers will no doubt have ACORN out in force in 2010 …
By Ron Anderson December 28, 2009 at 11:00 am
The demographic changes fueling this are also causing many of these states to become more competitive as well. This is especially true of Texas, Nevada, Florida, and Arizona where the surge of hispanic voters is changing the Democrats prospects. That is why immigration reform will be a big issue next year. The Democrats owe the hispanic voters and they know that the best way to secure hispanic votes is to get the anti immigration folks riled up and scare the hispanic voters away from the GOP. California used to be competitive until the GOP pushed the anti immigration proposition in 1994. Since then, it has been a cake walk for the Dems.
By me December 28, 2009 at 7:45 pm
cali use to be competitive before it was over ran with mexicans….