The Spurrier Math

After four years of mediocrity – and three consecutive end-of-season collapses – the expectations were understandably much lower for University of South Carolina head coach Steve Spurrier heading into the 2009 season, his fifth in Columbia.

The “Old Ball Coach” has a young team, a new starting quarterback and one of the toughest schedules in the nation.

Just managing a winning record in such a scenario would be acceptable, wouldn’t it?

Apparently so … to some.

According to a FITS poll conducted at the beginning of the season, a majority of our readers (56%) believe that Spurrier needs only to win one of USC’s remaining three games to hang onto his job – assuming he still wants it.  And in case you haven’t visited our comments section, FITS readers aren’t exactly shrinking violets, people.

They’re a tough crowd.

But are they being soft on Spurrier?

After a disastrous Halloween loss to Tennessee, Spurrier’s record at USC now stands at 34-25 – including an 18-20 SEC mark.  Over that stretch, he has won zero SEC championships and zero Eastern Division titles.

By contrast, in his first five years at Florida Spurrier’s record was 49-12-1 – and his teams had either won or shared four SEC East titles.

Plus, the best was yet to come (back then, at least) … as the Gators went an astonishing 24-2 during Spurrier’s sixth and seventh seasons in Gainesville, winning a national championship in 1996.

Does anyone really believe something similar is on the Gamecocks’ horizon?

With three games remaining on USC’s 2009 schedule, Spurrier’s future is – or at least should be – very much in doubt.

After galloping off to another hot start, South Carolina is perched on the precipice of another late season collapse – with a tough SEC road game against Arkansas, No. 1 Florida and arch-rival Clemson remaining on its 2009 schedule.  If things remain as they are, Carolina is likely to be the underdog in each of those contests.

Over the last four seasons, USC has played well in its first seven games – posting a 21-7 mark and climbing as high as No. 6 in the nation back in 2007.

But the wheels always seem to fall off.

Since 2006, Spurrier’s Gamecocks are an atrocious 6-13 in their final five games of the season – including a horrific 0-5 finish two years ago and an 0-3 collapse last season that saw them outscored 118-30 in their final three games.

After seeing South Carolina’s offensive performance plummet over the past three seasons, Spurrier made wholesale changes on his staff prior to last season’s Outback Bowl loss against Iowa.

Has it paid off?

Not really.  Including Saturday’s loss to Tennessee, South Carolina ranks 71st out of 120 Division I-A teams in total offense, and 95th in scoring offense.

The Gamecocks have thrown the ball well (ranking 41st in passing offense), but continue to struggle running the football (ranking 87th in rushing offense).

Spurrier’s defenders point to the evolution of quarterback Stephen Garcia and USC’s stockpile of young talent on both sides of the football.  His detractors say that the game has passed him by and that USC should already be competing at an SEC championship level.

So … what’s your take?

What does Spurrier have to do over the next three – possibly four – games to save his job?  Or is his job even in jeopardy?

Vote in our poll below …

Pics: Travis Bell, Sideline Carolina

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