Rex Poll: Whites Only
As we noted earlier this week, S.C. Superintendent of Education Jim Rex’s fortunes have been flagging lately …
In fact, it’s almost as bad for him these days as it is for the tens of thousands of South Carolina school children he keeps trapped in failing and below average schools.
Anyway, first Rex’s educrat buddies got busted trying to “dumb down” our state’s academic standards. Then, the myth of “budget cuts” that he’s been screaming from the rooftops was officially exploded by a recent report showing education funding in South Carolina at its highest level ever (in the middle of one of the worst economic recession in American history). Finally, a new report released last week showed that South Carolina’s graduation rate was still among the worst in the nation – which is consistent with our state’s declining SAT and ACT scores.
All this on top of a pathetic fundraising performance in his quest for the 2010 democratic gubernatorial nomination.
In desperate need of some good news, Rex went to his buddies at The (Columbia, S.C.) State – a.k.a. La Socialista – an outlet that has always asked “how high” whenever Rex asked it to jump.
And just like that, the paper spit out a headline – based off a poll commissioned by Rex’s campaign – showing the him “winning” the democratic gubernatorial primary.
Ho-hum. “Whoop ti do and la ti da,” right?
This time, however, La Socialista got burned.
Rex’s leak of this polling data has his campaign (and The State) in some serious hot water after … get this … the results achieved by the race’s only African-American candidate were deliberately withheld.
Here are the poll results as taken from Rex’s campaign press release …
In a Democratic Primary vote preference for Governor, Jim Rex begins with a significant lead over his closest competitor. Among Democratic Primary voters, Rex leads the other candidates by double-digit margins receiving 25 percent of the vote, to State Senator Vincent Sheheen’s 10 percent. Charleston trial attorney Mullins McLeod and Columbia special interest lobbyist Dwight Drake are in low single digits at 4 and 3 percent respectively.
Based on that data, which was provided exclusively to La Socialista, you would assume that Rex is in the driver’s seat.
You would also assume that State Sen. Robert Ford (D-Charleston) is completely out of the race – or polling below the 3% earned by liberal lobbyist Dwight Drake.
And that’s exactly what the newspaper concluded. Using the data provided by the Rex campaign, The State mentioned Ford as one of the Democratic candidates that “a majority of those surveyed did not know.”
Of course’s there’s one small problem with that …
Ford – who earned considerable statewide (and national) attention after sponsoring a comprehensive parental choice bill earlier this year – is much better known than most of the democratic candidates.
And Rex knows it.
So … how did he end up being excluded from Rex’s poll?
Ford’s campaign advisor, O’Neal Compton, posed that very question on his website …
What about my friend, Senator Robert Ford? Why isn’t he listed in the poll results? Did he get 0%? 0.5%? Or was it less than half of one percent causing him to be rounded down to zero? Come on! He had to get something. Are you saying that out of all the voters that Hamilton polled in a random sample of likely Democratic voters (at least 60% of which would have to be black) not even 2 or 3% preferred Senator Ford (the only African-American candidate) in this poll? I find that impossible to believe.
Indeed, the complete poll conducted by the Rex campaign – and later obtained by Compton – shows Ford finishing second in the five-person field with 15% of the vote.
Here are the actual results, with all of the candidates included …
Undecided – 43%
Rex – 25%
Ford – 15%
Sheheen – 10%
McLeod – 4%
Drake – 3%
Democrats we spoke with were shocked at the duplicity of the Rex campaign.
“Totally unethical,” one told us. “I’ve never seen anything like that before.”
Say what you want about him, but Ford has a constituency and a message. And Rex’s campaign – in a throwback to our state’s segregationist past – deliberately attempted to marginalize that constituency and devalue that message.
“We don’t run all-white Democratic primaries down here any more,” Compton said. “Not since Strom was a Dixiecrat.”
Meanwhile, The State got played and Hamilton Campaigns – the company that conducted the poll – now has a huge black eye.
Also, the “good news” story that Rex was looking for has now blown up in his face.
UPDATE: Since the veracity of our reporting is being challenged, here is a screen shot of the release sent out by the Rex campaign that CLEARLY EXCLUDES the polling totals for Sen. Ford.
(click to enlarge)
Comments
By Zeke Stokes on October 30th, 2009 at 9:43 am
Will:
No one got played. The State had a copy of our polling memo detailing all candidates’ numbers, and we have been circulating that same memo far and wide to our donors, supporters and friends. For you and your readers, we are happy to provide a copy here.
Zeke
MEMORANDUM
TO: Rex 2010
FROM: Hamilton Campaigns
DATE: October 27, 2009
RE: Polling in the South Carolina Democratic Primary1
The following memo is based on a survey of 400 registered voters who are likely to vote in the June
2010 Democratic Primary election in South Carolina. Hamilton Campaigns conducted telephone
interviewing October 23-26, 2009. The margin of error for a sample of this size is ±4.9 percentage points,
at the 95% confidence level.
Jim Rex is the clear frontrunner in the Democratic Primary election for Governor in
South Carolina. Rex maintains a double-digit vote lead over his opponents, has a
valuable name identification advantage, and a dominating lead in run-off scenarios –
Jim Rex begins this campaign in a strong position to become the Democratic nominee
for Governor.
Key Findings
Rex begins with an advantage over the rest of the field in statewide name
identification and favorability rating. Rex’s name is recognized by over half of the
Democratic Primary electorate – and the vast majority of those voters rate Rex
favorably.
Favorability Rating of Candidates
Candidate Favorable Unfavorable Cannot rate
Jim Rex 41% 14% 44%
Robert Ford 32% 12% 56%
Vince Sheheen 23% 6% 71%
Dwight Drake 17% 5% 78%
Mullins McLeod 16% 6% 78%
In a Democratic Primary vote preference for Governor, Jim Rex begins with a
significant lead over his closest competitor. Among Democratic Primary voters,
Rex leads the second place candidate by a double-digit margin and leads the other
candidates by more than a 2-to-1 margin.
Vote Preference for Governor
Candidate %
Jim Rex 25%
Robert Ford 15%
Vince Sheheen 10%
Mullins McLeod 4%
Dwight Drake 3%
Undecided 43%
Rex is in a commanding position even when facing run-off scenarios against
Vince Sheheen or Dwight Drake. Rex’s vote share hovers at the 50% mark in a
run-off vote preference against Sheheen or Drake. Run-off scenarios against other
candidates were not tested in this poll.
Run-off Vote Preference for Governor
Candidate %
Jim Rex 50%
Vince Sheheen 14%
Undecided 36%
Jim Rex 48%
Dwight Drake 17%
Undecided 36%
Bottom Line
The poll findings clearly show Jim Rex to be the frontrunner in the Democratic race for
Governor. His high level of name identification is a significant strategic and financial
advantage at the start of this race. His double-digit vote lead and dominating
performance in run-off scenarios, places the rest of the field in a position of playing
catch-up to Rex. The other candidates will need to raise and spend a large amount of
their campaign funds in order to match Rex’s current name identification, or they will be
forced to run a highly negative campaign that will make it more difficult for Democrats to
be successful next November. In either scenario, Rex is currently the candidate to beat
in the 2010 Democratic Primary.
By fitsnews on October 30th, 2009 at 9:50 am
Zeke-
So it’s the newspaper’s fault?
-FITS
By Matt on October 30th, 2009 at 9:56 am
This is like amateur hour over at the Rex campaign. They know better. He’s paying some of the more experienced SC Dem political operatives to run his campaign. Did they not think that the official poll results with Ford in second would not get out?
If I was the SCGOP and groups like SCRG I would be all over this. Further drive home the fact that a majority of South Carolina black voters support vouchers–and the Dem establishment is all too willing to throw them under the bus.
Up here in Spartanburg there are a lot of school choice activists that happen to be black–just maybe the SCGOP could do some effective minority outreach for a chance using a substantive issue.
By vicupstate on October 30th, 2009 at 10:30 am
So FITS, or Sic Willie or whatever you call yourself, did you ASSume that the Rex campaign left Ford out of the press release or did you CONFIRM that that was indeed the case? Your readers would like to know.
By fitsnews on October 30th, 2009 at 10:43 am
Vic-
http://fitsnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/10/rex-poll-release.jpg
-FITS
By Stupid Question on October 30th, 2009 at 10:45 am
Zeke, are you still keeping an office on Rutledge as well?
By proudofsc on October 30th, 2009 at 11:20 am
What urks me is we are paying these candidates to run for Governor. If they had any ethics, they would resign their jobs and run full-time for Gov. That would be Rex, Barrett, McMaster, Bauer,Ford, Sheheen, Grooms, etc.
You can’t tell me they can do their public-paid jobs effectively and campaign, as well.
I know, Obabma, McCain,
Hillary, Tennenbaum, to name a few, did the same thing.
By OhNoNotAgain on October 30th, 2009 at 11:22 am
It is interesting that Zeke’s reply, seems to confirms the substance of this report here on FITS.
This data here shows Robert Ford coming in second.
The next line is runoff data, and the comparison, in THIS reply, is Rex beating Sheheen, but “undecided” coming in first, actually.
You’d have to see the question asked to get the answer, but it looks like Ford, who came in second, was EXCLUDED from the runoff scenario. It’s certain he was excluded or lumped in with “undecided” in this memo sent out to dispel the insinuation that the campaign and poll excluded Ford.
Much as I hate to say it, Rex is sending Ford to the back of the bus.
By OhNoNotAgain on October 30th, 2009 at 11:25 am
And I know it’s technically accurate, but calling 10 point lead a “double digit” lead, when you aren’t over 50 percent is somewhat slimy.
A guy who will only get 11 percent of the vote has a double digit lead over a guy who only get 1 percent. Don’t mean he’ll win though.
By Gillon on October 30th, 2009 at 12:41 pm
Fits–looks like Zeke handed your head to you.
By Mike at the beach on October 30th, 2009 at 12:54 pm
Wow, this is pretty cool. The Rex campaign and The State evidently share (or will soon, anyway) two traits in common: they’ll be financially bankrupt and morally bankrupt simultaneously, and the disappearance of both will represent a net positive for SC…
Can you IMAGINE the media hue and cry if a Republican pol had excluded a viable black candidate in this manner. Firestorm doesn’t even begin to describe it…
By Shill willie on October 30th, 2009 at 1:12 pm
Only when you disclose exactly how much you’re getting paid by SCRG/Rich will anybody be able to judge whether your comments on SC schools have any value. (Hint – a lot and they do not.) For those of us not so ethically challenged, it’s a constant source of amazement and entertainment to watch the maneuverings of someone so lacking in ethical boundaries. On fitsnews, whining about not getting the respect due a “real” media outlet alternates with regurgitating garbage from your various paying customers alternates with bragging about just how influential you are. Can you say medium fish in puny, insignificant pond?
By Crooner on October 30th, 2009 at 1:27 pm
Wait- you mean Boeing didn’t come to SC to take advantage of SC’s educated work force?
Oh right- they came to take advantage of SC’s UNeducated work force.
By columbia insider on October 30th, 2009 at 1:30 pm
vicupstate — you just got your ass handed to you. fits posted the rex release and it clearly makes no mention of ford’s numbers. none, even though he was second in the poll. that is flat out pathetic. apologize, vicupstate.
By Pricey Flack on October 30th, 2009 at 2:17 pm
It appears the press release team Rex put out was misleading, not the source data. And if all the State used was the press release for their story, and not source data b/c they didn’t have access to it, well there you have it… How often does this happen each and every day?
You’re only going to put the numbers that support your story. Rex sponsored this poll. Of course they’re going to share the data that supports their candidate, why would they show otherwise? If it were a third-party, it would be different and probably more scientific.
I’ve got no care either way in this pissing contest.
By Jonny D on October 30th, 2009 at 3:02 pm
Zeke, after careful examination of the evidence, all I can say to you is nigga please.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I11w-rl6iaY
By Haydn Harbour on November 2nd, 2009 at 11:46 am
Wow — I think you’re all missing the story here. Robert Ford (who, I’m sorry, is not really a credible candidate in the long-term) is beating the heck out of Dwight Drake (establishment superstar lobbyist) and Vince Sheheen! Those guys have both been running hard for a long time and are barely registering with Dem voters. And Jim Rex — whatever you may think of him — is kicking butt. That’s what the poll says. I’m just ’splainin’ it to you jokers.