It’s obvious by now that S.C. Gov. Mark Sanford’s high-profile personal indiscretions – as well as his PR meltdown and the specter of ongoing investigations into his administration – will be a major drag on the Republican ticket in 2010.
Democrats were already poised to have a field day with the splintered, hypocritical and ineffective GOP – and Sanford’s seemingly incurable bone-headedness continues to be a gift-wrapped mallet for Democrats to hammer Republicans with even harder.
But before we get to the 2010 general election, Sanford’s dramatic collapse will also play a significant role in the June 2010 GOP primary election – and right now we can see no political calculus that doesn’t have S.C. Rep. Nikki Haley suffering the most (at least initially) from the “Luv Gov’s” little “hike along the Appalachian Trail.”
Branded as the “reform candidate” in the race, Haley was banking (literally) on Sanford’s financial and popular support – which prior to his Maria Belen Chapur meltdown represented formidable assets in a race against three well-known establishment candidates, U.S. Rep. Gresham Barrett, Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer and Attorney General Henry McMaster.
In fact, a top strategist to one of those “Big Three” GOP gubernatorial campaigns told FITS recently that prior to Sanford’s meltdown, his client was preparing for a runoff election with Haley next summer to decide the GOP nomination.
For his part, Sanford made it abundantly clear that Haley was his main squeeze (politically-speaking), and sources tell FITS that the governor was poised to pour millions into Haley’s race provided she raised a sufficient amount of money on her own, initially.
Then along came the Chapur iceberg, and the governor’s “hard-to-starboard” misdiagnosis of how to best handle the situation. The result? The slow sinking of the Sanford brand – which seems to take on a little more water every day with each new allegation.
How has that “drip drip drip” impacted Haley’s fund-raising?
Yeah … it hasn’t been good, from what we hear, and we’re also told that Haley’s top consultant (Sanford advisor Jon Lerner) is in complete and total denial about how the “Sanford factor” will impact his new client’s candidacy, choosing to adopt a risky “ignore it and hope it goes away” approach.
Hmmm … good luck with all that.
Obviously, the governor represents something different to each of the various warring factions of the S.C. Republican establishment, and while we’re hearing that the top two factions are conspiring to keep Sanford in office to protect their candidates (Barrett and McMaster), that doesn’t mean they won’t be linking Haley to Sanford every chance they get.
Barrett and McMaster certainly do not want to give Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer a sixteen-month audition for the top job (more on that story Monday), but they also aren’t going to give Haley a free ride on her proximity to the scandal-tattered governor, either. Bottom line, as long as S.C. House Speaker Bobby Harrell is agreeable to keeping Sanford in office by keeping his troops in line in the S.C. House (more on that Monday, too), then Barrett and McMaster get to have their cake and eat it, too.
They can bash Haley for her “Sanford connection” all day long without worrying about potential impeachment repercussions.
Nice, huh?
Of course Haley’s gubernatorial bid isn’t necessarily sunk with the Sanford “Titanic” … she may yet find a lifeboat after all.
In early July – two weeks after the Sanford scandal broke – a FITS poll showed that 55% of our readers viewed her gubernatorial prospects as “good as done,” while 45% responded that they were “good to go.”
That means the jury is still out within the echo chamber … which means if Haley adopts a real strategy for dealing with the “Sanford factor” – as opposed to Lerner’s “non-strategy” – she may not go down with the ship.
Artwork: YSC for FITS
By Dianne August 20, 2009 at 5:44 pm
Wow, Rep. Nikki Haley WOULD be more than a “worthy” act to follow Gov. Sanford, touting accountability and exhibiting anything but. Rep. Haley actually said confessed she doesn’t recall whether she flew economy or first class to China. Gov. Sanford’s skeletons will only take her so far, she’s fully capable of catapulting herself…
“She recalled a dozen or so delegates, mostly from the business community, but said she couldn’t remember whether she flew coach or first class. Although expense records released by the state Commerce Department and comptroller’s office do not show the type of ticket purchased, her flight cost $6,842.
“It was a big deal that we were the only state in the country that was asked to bring a delegation,” Haley said. “It was very prestigious.”
Other state employees who went on the trip charged the state between $1,905 and $3,963 each for their flights, the expense records show.”
Maybe she could try hypnotism? Or, if applicable, would too much boozing on the public dime with hunky Gov make for woozy results?
By No Name August 20, 2009 at 6:12 pm
Hunky, gurul pleeez!
By CNSYD August 20, 2009 at 6:18 pm
To move to the forefront Haley needs to lead the call for impeachment.
By abc August 20, 2009 at 8:07 pm
“…continues to be a gift-wrapped mallet for Democrats to hammer Republicans with even harder.”
pretty good.
By lou August 20, 2009 at 10:08 pm
drip drip drip
drip
drip
By follydude August 21, 2009 at 8:06 am
more on that Monday?
FITs taking a long weekend?
By Commonman August 21, 2009 at 8:15 am
Spot on analysis. I do not believe she can weather the association. Jon “Ostrich” Lerner better get his head out of the ground and address this issue now. It is a softball for the Democrats and Republicans. “I can’t remember whether I flew first class or coach to China” is going to come back to haunt her for a long time. Flying the friendly skies is getting to be hazardous to one’s political health.
By anonymous August 21, 2009 at 8:17 am
The Greenville News:
Gov. Mark Sanford said Wednesday he hasn’t decided whether to allow a possible ethics probe of his travel to be open to the public.
But he said he remains committed to transparency in government and said he has “an incredibly great story to tell” about how he has protected taxpayers in his travels.
What a freakin’ freak.
The Mark Sanford freak Show, starring Mark Sanfraud.
By Toyota Kawaski August 21, 2009 at 8:28 am
Yes Darling Nikki we will be your female dog
By Winder August 21, 2009 at 9:50 am
I fly every week and I can say from experience, especially when flying overseas that the difference between flying coach or first class is the difference between sitting in a flying bus, or sitting in a nice comfy recliner with good food, and free liqour drinks. The only way Haley might not remember if she flew first class or coach is if she had too many drinks in first class…………..
By TotalWench August 21, 2009 at 10:15 am
Anyone who has flown commercial airlines in the past, um, well, EVER, would remember the difference between coach and business class. Coach is the section that is one step away from waterboarding. Business class is where they treat you like a human.
By 1+1=3 August 21, 2009 at 1:41 pm
The Associated Press
Friday, August 21, 2009; 1:16 PM
COLUMBIA, S.C. — An Associated Press investigation has found South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford took dozens of flights on private planes that he didn’t report despite a state law requiring him to disclose who paid for the travel.
The AP discovered 35 flights Sanford took on private planes that he did not disclose on ethics or campaign reports. The flights are noted on calendars obtained through a public records request.
Sanford’s staff says he didn’t report the flights because longtime friends or political groups paid for them. But state ethics officials say Sanford must report his use of private planes even if friends pay.
By CAE Native August 21, 2009 at 4:04 pm
I am a Five Million Delta Miler…. Can’t remember First Class or Coach? Then, she’s too dumb to be governor. There’s a lot of difference.
By scooter August 21, 2009 at 7:47 pm
Would not vote for her under any circumstances. She should have asked him to resign long time ago. She has put her money on the wrong horse. Sorry Nikki, no vote from this family. And by the way, Mr. Sanford, please resign, now. It only gets more dirty as days go by.
By Dave T. August 22, 2009 at 8:59 am
TotalWench-
“Anyone who has flown commercial airlines in the past, um, well, EVER, would remember the difference between coach and business class. Coach is the section that is one step away from waterboarding. Business class is where they treat you like a human.”
Too funny!!!!!! (And oh so true).
By No Name August 22, 2009 at 10:52 am
Deeper, deeper, deeper poop we’re stepping in… . The unrecorded and unreported flights, the favors-a jiggle here with who buys what “protected lands,” a jiggle there with what friend’s case is changed from federal to state jurisdiction, a tweak here with this good ole friend on SCDNR board, a tweak there with tourist venue concessions. These dumbass hayseeds will never notice. After all we married money and have the C-street divine right to monopolize the most valuable resource of SC-the natural beauty-cause we’re just good ole boys who love the simple sporting life!
By anonymous August 22, 2009 at 10:35 pm
Mark Sanford said:
I want to appolize to uh uh uh …
http://punditkitchen.files.wordpress.com/2009/06/political-pictures-mark-sanford-apologize-wife.jpg