1983 Called …
Matthew Stafford went 1-1 against the University of South Carolina.
That’s neither here nor there … we’re just saying.
He’s a good QB, but was he the best one available? And was this really a QB draft?
After all, $41 million in guaranteed money – which will accrue to Stafford no matter what happens from this day forward – is a lot of cash.
In fact, figures like that are why NFL commissioner Roger Goodell, the guy smiling with Stafford above, is pushing to make 2009 the very last NFL draft to feature such exorbitant sums going to untested rookies like Stafford.
But until such time as a rookie wage scale or some other mechanism is inserted into the NFL’s collective bargaining agreement, things are what they are – and Stafford is the recipient of the richest rookie contract ever, a six-year, $72 million deal with $6 million in possible incentives.
And just to repeat – $41 million of that is guaranteed whether Stafford becomes Peyton Manning (boom) or Ryan Leaf (bust), or for that matter, former sixth-rounder (and three-time Super Bowl Champ) Tom Brady.
So will the massive investment the Lions are making in Stafford pay off?
It could. But it likely won’t.
We’re not saying that to belittle an immensely talented young man (who went 1-1 against South Carolina, remember), we’re going off of history.
Since the 1983 draft – which included Hall-of-Famers Dan Marino, Jim Kelly and John Elway – first round quarterbacks have been risky, unrewarding propositions.
From 1985-2005, 43 quarterbacks were taken in the first round.
How did they fare?
Well, through 2006, they had averaged 6.5 years in the league with a 72.9 passer rating.
Only four of them ever led the NFL in passer rating, and only one of them – Manning – did it more than once.
Through 2006, that group of 43 players had also managed to win only six Super Bowls – and three of them belong to Troy Aikman.
The picks since 2005 haven’t fared much better. Pro-Bowler Vince Young (’06) has lost his starting job in Tennessee. Ditto Cardinals’ QB Matt Leinhart (’06).
From last year’s class, first-rounders Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco are showing promise, as is JaMarcus Russell (’07) – but sixteen career starts doesn’t make a career.
Basically, since 1983 – taking a quarterback in the first round has been a bad idea.
And while we’re not saying that’s going to happen to Stafford, he is 1-1 on his career against the University of South Carolina.
That’s not a stat we’d stake $41 million on …
Comments
By Eric on April 28th, 2009 at 7:28 pm
Off the top of my head Roethlisberger has 2 super bowls, Big and Little Manning have 1 super bowl, and Trent Dilfer has one ring. If Aikman has 3 that adds up to 8 super bowls from first round draft picks.
By fitsnews on April 28th, 2009 at 7:33 pm
Eric-
You are absolutely correct … as we noted, though, we were referring to the classes of ‘85 – ‘05 through 2006 stats.
Obviously Big Ben’s second and Eli’s first post-date that analysis.
-FITS
By Eric on April 29th, 2009 at 8:30 am
Ah, that’s my reading skills for you.
By Brian on May 1st, 2009 at 1:45 am
It’d be nice to see the trend of unsuccessful first rounders continue to die out after the way Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco managed to break the mold. That kind of money doesn’t guarantee you a players success, but that’s life. You don’t pay, you don’t play. Enjoy the $41 million dollar gamble.
Stafford has the arm, it’s clear. Stafford’s arm has been NFL strong since High School – that’s what most top analyst have said, anyways.
What I’m getting at…
Either way, we all HATE Georgia and should just be glad that he (and Knowshon) are no longer factors in the SEC East.