Nikki Haley – darling of the conservative movement in South Carolina and a favorite of Gov. Mark Sanford – is strongly considering a run for governor in 2010, sources tell FITS.
Originally approached by Sanford supporters in February, Haley is said to have been cool to the idea at first – wanting to run for State Treasurer instead.
Within the last few weeks, however, she has reportedly warmed to the notion of running for the top of the ticket.
And seriously, who can blame her?
The current crop of establishment GOP candidates has utterly failed to ignite the base, and not only that – none of these three interchangeable hacks offers much in the way of crossover appeal.
In addition to creating potential problems in a primary, that inability to attract “swing voters” would be deadly in a general election – particularly one most Palmetto political observers see as leaning Democratic.
Haley (R-Lexington) obviously lacks statewide name ID, but her fiscal and social voting record is “to die for” in a GOP primary, plus she’s demonstrated on multiple occasions that she’s unafraid to take on the status quo in Columbia – which will earn her points among moderate voters who are fed up with the political establishment.
Winthrop University political scientist Scott Huffmon says Haley faces an uphill battle in spite of all that, though, given the presence of two statewide elected officials (Attorney General Henry McMaster and Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer) and a U.S. Congressman (Gresham Barrett) on the primary ballot.
“From the macro-political view, she’s got a lot of hurdles to overcome,” Huffmon told FITS. “The obvious is name recognition and time in the game. If she ended up on the GOP primary ballot, the obvious big three names are going to be pulling a lot of oxygen.”
There’s only so much air available, Huffmon says, and “she’s going to be fighting for every ounce.”
“If you were laying odds, she would be a long shot,” Huffmon added. “The more people that get in, though, the better she is able to wedge herself and take air away from the big three.”
And others could be getting in.
Still up in the air, for example, is what State Sen. Tom Davis will do.
The governor’s former Chief-of-Staff has been by far the most visible conservative reformer in Columbia over the last few months, and it’s hard to see Sanford endorsing anyone but Davis in the event he decided to jump into the race.
“I think that he might be a little more of a natural choice there, because so much of the Sanford establishment got behind him in his Senate race,” Huffmon said of Davis. “Whether he would be more viable than Nikki, I’m not sure.”
One thing is for sure, though. Sanford will not be supporting Charleston Sen. Chip Campsen – although an awkward ballet has begun between the two fishing buddies as Sanford apparently can’t bring himself to tell Campsen that he needs to give up his prospective bid.
And while there are obvious fractures among Sanford and his supporters, Huffmon said the bigger issue is the split taking place within the GOP.
“The cracks have widened into gulfs,” Huffmon said of the S.C. Republican Party. “The question is are the gulfs becoming wide enough to make the party dysfunctional?”
By gary April 9, 2009 at 12:32 pm
Run Nikki Run!
By MailMan April 9, 2009 at 1:05 pm
Nikki would be an outstanding candidate – I’d vote for her over the 3 status quo Joe’s who are currently running.
Countdown to RQA Scoop err Palmetto Scoop attacking her in 4,3,2….
By Freddie Guy April 9, 2009 at 1:24 pm
Are you serious? Every story on this website in the last 4 months has alluded to this (or a Tom Davis) run. Can you please tell all of your readers how much money she had given to you and your company to “Report” this breaking news story???
This isn’t a story. To me, it smells like a paid press release!
Freddie
By Matt April 9, 2009 at 1:57 pm
I’m surprised the poli-sci professor did not say that Nikki Haley would be more viable than Tom Davis. I know we conservatives generally hate identity politics, but her background and gender give her a boost in a crowded GOP primary that will already contain four white guys even without Davis.
By Statue of Liberty April 9, 2009 at 2:22 pm
Hey Will, what makes you sure about the Campsen situation? I’m not saying you’re wrong; I have no idea whether it’s true is or not. I was just surprised to read that since I had thought they were close. Is it a viability issue or a political difference or what?
By fitsnews April 9, 2009 at 2:23 pm
Statue-
A little of both. Campsen would run a little harder on social issues than Sanford is comfortable with, and he’s just not anywhere near as “electable” as the other two.
Matt-
We wondered about that, too.
-FITS
By PalmettoCPA April 9, 2009 at 3:23 pm
Good. I hope she does run. I think she’d be VERY electable, and a VERY good Governor as well. I will definitely be a big supporter should she formally enter the race.
By Scott April 9, 2009 at 4:40 pm
Matt and Will:
Identity politics would be more at play in the general election. While equal numbers of women and men will vote in the Republican gubernatorial primary (if 2006 is an indicator), the TYPES of both who vote in primaries are more likely to be committed partisans who look more for the ideology, background, and experience. Rep. Haley matches ideo and background for a certain segment of the Repub party and she would have to hope that the other segment of the party was split among the so-called front-runners.
The lack of statewide name recognition and less political experience (compared to some of her competition) could hurt (which is probably why she was considering a run for Treasurer). Plus, as a southerner born-and-bred who has observed southern politics all his life….I believe that depending on which consultants her opposition hires, the race could be ugly.
By Gerry Atricks April 9, 2009 at 7:07 pm
Why would the Governor support someone who disagrees with him on Obama’s stimulus money? Her vote for the stimulus money, on Obama’s terms, will make for interesting debate fodder.
(Source: SC House Journal, Monday, March 9, Amendment 73)
By jeffy April 9, 2009 at 8:39 pm
no
By Ron April 9, 2009 at 8:57 pm
The taxpayers need her more on the budget and control board in my view.
By Richard April 9, 2009 at 11:25 pm
I agree Ron. Her talents and level headed policy are what this state needs. It’s about the policy with her, she doesn’t get into the politics of it all. I am curious as to the speculation of her name recognition, money, and being a minority. All three of those she blew out of the water when she won her Statehouse seat and has ovewhelmingly proved herself since. A very interesting dynamic to South Carolina.
By Freddie Guy April 10, 2009 at 12:36 pm
“her background and gender give her a boost in a crowded GOP primary that will already contain four white guys even without Davis.”
Did you really say that??? Her religion, her family’s Very non-conservative beliefs (religion) and background is a Lee Atwater consultant’s dream. Also, when has being non-white and non-male ever “boosted” a candidate in a GOP primary???
I’m confused.
Fred
By To my thinking April 10, 2009 at 2:55 pm
Queen Transparency should reveal how much she is paying Fits to promote her “possible” candidacy. I still have not forgotten that “no holds barred” attempt to gain chair of LCI. Darling-ha!
By fitsnews April 10, 2009 at 3:08 pm
“TMT,”
Like we always say, check the ethics filings if you want to see who our founding editor is working with.
The answer is no one, but knock yourself out nonetheless.
-FITS
By neil April 11, 2009 at 11:11 am
Nikki Haley is the best kept secret of South Carolina. Not only would she bring common sense approach to government she would reign in fiscal responsbility, accountability to where our money is spent and would be a friend to the taxpayer. I believe that Haley may lack in money and name id, but she leads in true Reagan Conservatism.
By greyghost51 April 13, 2009 at 10:05 am
we have had Sanford for 8 years ! we do want 4 more! No to Haley ?
By neil April 13, 2009 at 7:18 pm
Gerry,
Actually found out about the 108-8 vote. Here it is:
The vote was to either draft a budget with the stimulus in a seperate column so to see with and without…or to draft without stimulus in the budget. The vote was 108-8. Haley voted for a budget that showed both. And she also put some strict amendments in there as well such as stimulus money toward education would go directly to schools and not the DOE. So, she is still true to the Reagan principles and would make a wonderful candidate for Governor.
By Red Bank Bar April 16, 2009 at 5:55 am
Reagan principles? You mean the largest tax increase in US history and the biggest deficits ever (discounting Junior Bush)?
The man who told the world he wept when he helped liberate a concentration camp? Of course, the ‘mo never left California during WW 2.
By Neil April 16, 2009 at 1:33 pm
Actually Reagan cut taxes, not raise them. And he did it during a recession that had double digit inflation, double digit unemployment and high gas prices. Also, Reagan brough the American spirit back when Carter told us that our best days were behind us and that everyone should wear a sweater and turn their heat down.